伊拉克选举面面观

发布者: 流水绯红 | 发布时间: 2006-1-6 18:28| 查看数: 3739| 评论数: 0|

align=center>伊拉克选举面面观 
 前伊拉克独裁萨达姆候塞因可能被关押在伊拉克，但是他过去的作为对伊拉克仍在产生重大影响，影响到伊拉克人如何对星期四的议会选举投下他们的选票。 
*萨达姆审判影响伊拉克人* 
上星期伊拉克人在电视上看到了他们过去的独裁者萨达姆.侯塞因，当时他坐在巴格达的一间法庭里被指控犯有反人道罪，他可能被判处死刑。 
对这位逊尼派前伊拉克领导人萨达姆以及7名同案被告的审判暂时休庭到选举之后。但是就在选民准备投下选票之际，这场审判仍然留在公众心中，影响了伊拉克人对选举议题、候选人、以及政党的看法。 
萨达姆掌权时，伊拉克占多数的什叶派以及占少数的库尔德人受尽磨难，尤其是什叶派穆斯林，由于他们试图在萨达姆所属的世俗的逊尼派社区实践宗教信仰而受到迫害。 
*阿拉维宽容激怒什叶派宗教领袖* 
前伊拉克过渡政府总理阿拉维是一名世俗的什叶派，他曾经是萨达姆的复兴社会党成员。现在他想在政坛上东山再起。阿拉维以温和派姿态竞选，并且吸引了什叶派和逊尼派人。阿拉维的目标是推翻由笃信宗教的什叶派主导伊拉克的现像，这些什叶派人士是在今年1月的临时政府选举中获得权力的。 
阿拉维在30多年前和萨达姆分裂，在2003年美国进军伊拉克之前，阿拉维一直流亡在外。 2004年阿拉维被美国政府任命为伊拉克过渡政府总理。为了安抚愤怒的逊尼派阿拉伯人，稳定暴乱局面，阿拉维让许多前复兴社会党成员回到政府工作。 
这个做法使不满的逊尼派对阿拉维感到尊敬。世俗的什叶派人士也表示，他们喜欢阿拉维，因为他们过去支持萨达姆的一个原因就是，萨达姆大致能把宗教信仰和政治分离开来。 
什叶派的土木工程师卡达尔说，在第一次波斯湾战争后，萨达姆为了巩固政权，对抗美国要推翻他的威胁，需要沙特阿拉伯以及其他波斯湾国家笃信宗教的逊尼派阿拉伯人的支持，这时萨达姆才开始笃信宗教。 
卡达尔说：“我认为，宗教是自己和神之间的事。我认为宗教和政治没有交集。也许我们可以引用神职人员的观点和方向，但不是由神职人员来治理国家。” 
但是阿拉维对逊尼派人士的召唤却激起什叶派宗教领袖们的嫉恨，这些人一直要求把前复兴社会党成员从伊拉克清除出去。 
因此，在一些信仰强烈的什叶派据点，如巴格达的萨德尔市，有阿拉维面孔的选举海报和萨达姆的海报被放在一起，而且被张贴在许多贫民区的墙上。这对选民发出的信息是：投给阿拉维一票就等于投票要萨达姆复出。 
*阿罗西：选举可能带来更多纷乱* 
这类的负面竞选手法让伊拉克一些政界人士感到忧虑，例如米萨.阿罗西。阿罗西是逊尼派政治人士，他一直对萨达姆和效忠萨达姆的人，以及当前由什叶派领导的政府，提出强烈批评。 
阿罗西警告说，现在的伊拉克政治非常分裂，选举可能为伊拉克带来更多的纷乱和暴力。 
阿罗西说：“我们必须非常小心。虽然一些伊拉克政党是民主进程的一部份，但是这些政党并不民主，他们不相信民主。我感到很担心。别忘了，希特勒是经由选举成为总理的。这些人或他们当中有些人会作出像萨达姆一样的行为，或甚至有过之而无不及。” 
伊拉克本星期的选举将要为今后四年选定一个政府，这是决定伊拉克是成为一个和平民主国家、一个神权国家、还是分裂进入内战的重要关键。 
*逊尼派拟踊跃投票遏制什叶派野心* 
伊拉克团结联盟在星期四的选举中是最大的什叶派联盟。联盟中最大的政党则是伊斯兰革命最高会议。这个组织是在邻国什叶派的伊朗进行反抗萨达姆.侯塞因政权而起家的，因此和德黑兰关系密切。该组织甚至呼吁，在石油蕴藏丰富的伊拉克南部建立一个什叶派联邦国家。 
这个呼吁使逊尼派警觉，他们表示，什叶派人正试图跟伊朗合并，要在中东建立一个超级什叶派地区。 
曾经阻挠1月份选举的逊尼派因此誓言，星期四要大规模出动投票，部份原因是要设法压制什叶派的地缘政治野心。 
逊尼派对选举的热情也是被报导所激起来的。有报导说，目前以什叶派为主的政府卷入酷刑和杀害逊尼派伊拉克人，为的是报复多年来在萨达姆政权下受到的压迫。
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align=center>Experts: Saddam's Legacy Shaping Iraqi Elections 
 Former Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein may be behind bars in Baghdad, barely a shadow of the dictator he once was. His legacy is having a major impact, shaping how Iraqis vote in Thursday's crucial parliamentary elections in Iraq. 
Iraqis saw their former dictator on television just last week, as he sat in a Baghdad courtroom on charges of committing crimes against humanity. Saddam Hussein faces possible execution. 
But from the beginning, he has remained defiant. At one point in the trial last week, he berated the chief judge for presiding over what he repeatedly called a sham trial put on by occupiers. 
"Mr. Judge, they are in our land," said Mr. Hussein. "You are an Iraqi. They are foreigners, invaders, and occupiers."
The trial of the Sunni Arab leader and his seven co-defendants has been adjourned until after the elections. But as voters prepare to cast their ballots, the trial remains in the public consciousness, affecting how Iraqis view election issues, candidates and political parties. 
Iraq's majority Shi'ites and minority Kurds suffered terribly under his regime. Religious Shi'ite Muslims were especially persecuted for trying to practice their faith in Saddam's largely secular, Sunni society.
Former Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi is a secular Shi'ite, who was once a member of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party. Now he is trying for a political comeback, running as a moderate and appealing to both Shiites and Sunnis. His goal is to topple the domination of the religious Shi'ites, who swept into power in last January's election of an interim government. 
Mr. Allawi broke with Saddam more than 30 years ago, and went into exile until after the U.S. invasion in 2003. The next year, he was appointed by the United States as interim prime minister. He tried to mollify angry Sunni Arabs and calm the insurgency by bringing many former Baath Party members back into his government.
The move won him grudging respect from Sunni Arabs. Secular Shi'ites, too, say they like Mr. Allawi because one part of Saddam's legacy that they support was that he kept religion mostly separate from his politics.
A Shi'ite civic engineer, Mohammed Khadar, says Saddam only turned religious after the first Gulf War, when he needed the support of religious Sunni Arabs in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to shore up his regime against U.S. threats to topple him. 
"I think religion is something between the person and his God," said Mr. Khaddar. "I think there is no intersection between religion and politics. Maybe we can make use of clerics' ideas and directions, but not in ruling a country."
But Iyad Allawi's appeal to the Sunnis has inflamed the hatred of Shi'ite religious and political leaders, who have been pushing to purge all former Baathists from Iraqi society. 
In some religious Shi'ite strongholds such as Sadr City in Baghdad, campaign posters showing Mr. Allawi's face have been merged with that of Saddam Hussein and plastered on walls in many parts of the slum. The message to voters is: that a vote for Iyad Allawi is a vote to bring back Saddam Hussein. 
It is the kind of negative campaigning that worries some in Iraqi politics, such as Mithal al-Alousi. He is a Sunni politician who has been a vocal critic of both Saddam Hussein and his loyalists and the current Shi'ite-led government. 
He warns that Iraqi politics is so full of divisions right now, elections could actually bring more chaos and violence, not less. 
"We have to be very careful," he said. "Some Iraqi parties, they are part of the democratic process, but they are not democratic. They do not believe in democracy. I am so afraid. Do not forget. Hitler became chancellor through elections. Be sure, those people, or some of them, can do like Saddam Hussein and maybe more than Saddam Hussein."
This week's election will put in place a government for the next four years, a crucial period during which Iraq could become a peaceful democracy, a religious state, or break down into civil war. 
In January, the most powerful Shi'ite cleric in Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, made the decision for millions of religious Shi'ite voters by publicly endorsing a religiously conservative coalition called the United Iraqi Alliance. 
Despite his Iranian background, Ayatollah Sistani is revered among Iraqi Shi'ites and his word is considered law by many here. By endorsing the United Iraqi Alliance, Ayatollah Sistani made clear that he believed that Shi'ites in post-Saddam Iraq would be safest in the hands of religious parties.
The United Iraqi Alliance is again the largest Shi'ite bloc in Thursday's elections. The largest party in the coalition, the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, began as military movement to fight Saddam Hussein's regime from neighboring Shi'ite Iran.
The party's close ties to Tehran and its call for the creation of a federalist Shi'ite state in the oil-rich south of the country have alarmed Sunni Arabs, who say Shi'ites are trying to merge with Iran and form a super-Shi'ite region in the Middle East. 
Sunni Muslims, who boycotted January elections, have vowed to turn out in large numbers Thursday, partly in an effort to rein in Shi'ite geopolitical ambitions. Sunni passions also have been fanned by reports that the current Shiite-dominated government has been involved in the torturing and killing of Sunni Arabs, as retribution for years of oppression under Saddam.

伊拉克, 巴格达, 死刑, 萨达姆, 逊尼派

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