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Disarray Cools Japan's Role On World Stage

发布者: chrislau2001 | 发布时间: 2008-9-4 17:13| 查看数: 1739| 评论数: 1|

JUST TWO MONTHS AGO, Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda played host of the Group of Eight summit. He strengthened ties with neighboring China and even started to coax North Korea to relaunch a probe into its past state-sponsored kidnapping program.

But with his abrupt resignation announcement Monday, all that is on hold.

With two new prime ministers in as many years -- and growing calls for snap elections, where the ruling party could lose its grip on power -- there are concerns that Japan is losing its hard-won clout on the world stage.

'Why would anyone take Japan seriously now?' says Masaru Ikei, a professor in international relations at Keio University. 'They don't know who the next prime minister will be, or how long the next government will last.'

Japan's diplomatic appointments are already in disarray. The government announced Wednesday that a trilateral summit with trading partners China and South Korea planned this month has been postponed. That came after Defense Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi put a trip to Washington on hold.

'We have judged that it is difficult to hold the summit due to the political situation of the Japanese side,' top government spokesman Nobutaka Machimura told reporters.

Bolstering relations with Japan's Asian neighbors had been a bright spot in Mr. Fukuda's mostly lackluster report card. He pushed especially for better ties with Beijing, twice visiting China in his yearlong term and frequently meeting the country's top officials. He proposed the three-way summit earlier this year.

Another issue that could be affected: Tokyo's negotiations with North Korea over its kidnappings of Japanese nationals in the 1970s and 1980s. Japanese officials had expected Pyongyang to soon resume a probe into the matter. But now, North Korea is likely to take a 'wait-and-see' attitude to determine who will take over from Mr. Fukuda, Mr. Ikei says.

Mr. Fukuda also had taken a lead in calling for greenhouse-gas-emissions targets, presiding over an agreement at the G8 summit in July to halve emissions by 2050. He planned to attend the United Nations General Assembly session in New York this month to make a further case for measures to fight global warming, according to Japanese media.

Now, Foreign Ministry officials are wondering whether the next leader will be ready to take Mr. Fukuda's place in New York. General debate at the U.N. General Assembly starts Sept. 23, just a day after the new prime minister is scheduled to be selected.

To be sure, the two front-runners to succeed Mr. Fukuda aren't foreign-policy novices. Ruling-party heavyweight Taro Aso, who announced his intention to run for prime minister Tuesday, has served as foreign minister and has made much of boosting Japan's image abroad by promoting Japanese pop culture. Another possible candidate, Yuriko Koike, has served as defense minister and speaks fluent Arabic.

One area Japan won't change is its policy toward the U.S. Both Mr. Aso and Ms. Koike are staunch Washington supporters. Last year, Ms. Koike met with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during a visit to the U.S. and later jokingly referred to herself as the 'Japanese Rice.'

Hiroko Tabuchi


最新评论

chrislau2001 发表于 2008-9-4 17:14:07

外交乱局或削弱日本国际影响力

两个月前,日本首相福田康夫(Yasuo Fukuda)还是八国峰会的东道主。他强调与中国加强联系,甚至开始向朝鲜示好,希望对三十年前朝鲜政府指使的日本公民绑架案重新展开调查。

但随着福田周一突然宣布辞职,这一切都将陷入停顿。

鉴于日本两年内先后有两位首相辞职,且要求迅速举行大选的呼声日益高涨、而执政党有可能在选举中下台,因此人们担心日本有可能丧失其在国际舞台上来之不易的影响力。

庆应大学(Keio University)国际关系学教授Masaru Ikei说,“人们现在还有什么理由重视日本呢?他们不知道谁会是下一任首相,也不知道新一届政府能维持多久。”

日本的外交活动也陷入混乱。政府周三宣布,原定本月举行的中、日、韩三国峰会将延期举行。之前,防卫大臣林芳正(Yoshimasa Hayashi)也暂时取消了访问华盛顿的行程。

日本内阁官房长官町村信孝(Nobutaka Machimura)对记者说,鉴于日本方面眼下的政治形势,我们认为现在举行峰会有难度。

加强与亚洲邻国的关系是福田首相乏善可陈的成绩单上一个难得的亮点。他尤其重视推动与中国的关系,在其一年任期中曾两度访华,并与中方高层官员频繁会晤。今年早些时候,他提出了三国峰会的构想。

还有一个可能会受到影响的问题,那就是日本与朝鲜就上世纪七、八十年代日本公民遭绑架事件的谈判。日方官员此前预计朝鲜不久将就此事重新展开调查。但Ikei教授说,现在朝鲜可能会采取观望立场,等待新首相产生后再做决定。

广告福田还带头呼吁设定温室气体减排目标,在7月份召开的八国峰会上,他主持签署了到2050年减少50%排放量的协议。据日本媒体报导,他还计划出席本月将在纽约举行的联合国大会,进一步讨论应对全球变暖的措施。

如今,外务省官员还不知道新首相能否赶上本月的联合国大会。大会一般性辩论将从9月23日开始,也就是公布新首相人选的第二天。

可以肯定的是,目前的两位新首相热门人选在外交政策上都不是生手。执政党自民党重量级人物麻生太郎(Taro Aso)周二宣布有意继任首相。他曾担任过外相,期间他积极推广日本大众文化,对提升日本的国际形像功不可没。另一个可能的候选人小池百合子(Yuriko Koike)曾担任防卫大臣,会讲流利的阿拉伯语。

日本不会有变化的一个地方是其对美政策。麻生和小池都是华盛顿的坚定支持者。去年,小池曾在访美期间会见美国国务卿赖斯(Condoleezza Rice),后来还开玩笑说自己是“日本赖斯”。

Hiroko Tabuchi
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