In Asia, Vote Spawns Admiration, Wariness
Barack Obama's election victory was widely popular in Asia. Many people in the region of great ethnic, religious and cultural diversity suggested that Sen. Obama will have a broader, more nuanced view of the world, which could help the U.S. better engage other nations -- especially countries with nonwhite and Muslim populations -- in diplomatic dialogue.
But few think that an Obama administration can solve the global financial crisis and end the economic slowdown any time soon, and there is anxiety about a possible rise in protectionist sentiment in the U.S. and what that would mean for export-dependent Asia.
Some analysts in Asia suggested that Sen. Obama's victory will do much to restore the American political image tarnished under President George W. Bush's administration, which pursued wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and tended to act unilaterally on global issues. Still, there is no guarantee that new U.S. policies will prove more successful, especially in challenging situations like Pakistan and Afghanistan.
For many, Sen. Obama's election generated admiration and hope. His victory 'shows that the U.S. is capable of enormous change,' said Karim Raslan, a Malaysian political commentator.
As in the U.S., many younger people in Asia were pulling for Sen. Obama, including in China. But for economists and businesspeople in China, there is some wariness about what Sen. Obama's presidency will mean. 'I am a bit worried that Obama will take some tough stances on trade issues,' said Tao Wenzhao, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies at the state-run Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing.
Chinese analysts fear the prospect of greater pressure to let the country's currency appreciate, even though the yuan has already gained more than 20% against the dollar since mid-2005, as well as possible limits on its exports to the U.S. at a time when China's low-cost manufacturers are already suffering. Still, China has leverage it could use against the U.S., chiefly its position as America's biggest foreign creditor at a time when Washington is ramping up borrowing.
But Beijing has also grown accustomed to past U.S. presidential candidates talking tough during the campaign, only to favor cooperation with China after they enter the White House. While the current economic situation suggests that American campaign rhetoric may carry more weight this time, ultimately many here see the economic fates of China and the U.S. as too intertwined to allow for a major trade battle.
'We are still concerned about Obama's trade policy,' said Xia Liping, a professor at Tongji University in Shanghai. 'However, we are in the financial crisis. Both China and the U.S. are in the same boat.' Adds Wang Dehua, an academic at the Shanghai Municipal Center for International Studies: 'The U.S. needs China. China needs the U.S. We should overcome the difficulties together.'
Many in China also see Sen. Obama as more likely to embrace multilateral solutions to global problems -- something Beijing tends to favor.
In some big Asian economies, there are concerns about how Sen. Obama will deal with issues and complaints he raised as a candidate. This is particularly true in India, where there was excitement about a change in U.S. leadership but worry that the new president will target outsourcing in a bid to create jobs in the U.S. During the long campaign, Sen. Obama took a stance against outsourcing, a flagship industry for India that gets the bulk of its revenue from U.S. companies. Sen. Obama repeatedly said that if elected, he would discourage U.S. companies from 'shipping jobs overseas' by taking away tax breaks.
Indian Finance Minister P. Chidambaram sought on Wednesday to play down fears about Sen. Obama's remarks. 'A comment here and a comment there [on outsourcing] should not bother us,' he said. 'Once Obama is in office, he will realize that it is an interconnected world, and countries have to work together.'
Some outsourcing companies said they are prepared for an Obama administration. Over the past six months, Mumbai-based outsourcer Aegis Communications Inc. has doubled its staff in the U.S. to nearly 4,500. 'Now, we can go back to all our clients and tell them they can still continue to outsource but not take away American jobs,' said Chief Executive Aparup Sengupta.
In Pakistan, many are hopeful that Sen. Obama will put a greater emphasis on finding a political solution to the fight against Islamic militants. In Afghanistan, where Sen. Obama has talked about more troops for the North Atlantic Treat Organization force there, President Hamid Karzai joined many leaders in warmly welcoming Sen. Obama's win, but he had pointed words for the president-elect, reiterating complaints about civilian deaths at the hands of NATO troops and his view that the battle against the Taliban had to be fought in its 'nests and training centers,' a reference to hideouts in neighboring Pakistan.
South Korea, too, has a specific issue with the U.S. that could get stickier with Sen. Obama's election. He has said he wants a portion of the free-trade agreement that was negotiated last year, but hasn't yet been ratified, to be changed to give U.S. auto makers more access to the Korean market. The already-negotiated pact 'is a balanced agreement which reflects the interests of both sides,' said Lee Hye-min, a South Korean deputy trade minister.
With Japan, there is no tough bilateral issue that will be immediately on Sen. Obama's plate, but tensions could flare if his administration takes a softer approach to North Korea, or pushes Japan to take a role in fighting the Taliban. 'Obama won't give much pressure on Japan on the military front as McCain would have,' said Aji Tanaka, professor of political science at Waseda University.
In Malaysia, Foreign Minister Rais Yatim said he hopes the Obama administration 'will be more sensitive to the sovereignty of smaller nations and will not use force in resolving global conflicts.' He added that Tuesday's election victory 'is seen as a bringing change and hope to the world.'
For Indonesians, Sen. Obama's victory had special resonance, because he lived in Jakarta between the ages of six and 10. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono praised U.S. voters for their 'maturity' in electing a minority candidate. Given Indonesia's 'sentimental attachment' to Sen. Obama, 'I foresee a turnaround in public opinion toward the U.S.,' said Sofjan Wanandi, head of the Indonesian Employers Association.
At the Besuki Elementary School in Jakarta, which Sen. Obama attended in the early 1970s, students were overjoyed with his win. 'Obama . . . Obama . . . Obama . . . We love you!' hundreds yelled as they watched television reports about his election. |
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