Hong Kong Chief Gives Views on Peg









Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang said the territory could consider a 'linkage' between its currency and the Chinese yuan once the yuan became fully convertible, though he acknowledged that would likely take years.

'When that happens, and I don't know when, I'm sure Hong Kong would think about...currency linkage with China,' Mr. Tsang said in response to a question at a Credit Suisse Group investors forum. Mr. Tsang didn't specify what form the currency linkage might take, though he said it wouldn't be likely for 'many, many, many years down the road.'

Mr. Tsang's comments were a rare official acknowledgment that the Hong Kong dollar, which has traded in a limited band around 7.80 to the U.S. dollar since 1983, might one day abandon that peg. The government, which manages its own financial and political systems separately from mainland China, has insisted the peg is the cornerstone of its monetary policy.

The Hong Kong dollar attracted robust demand for much of the last year as investors unwound trades in other currencies funded by Hong Kong dollars and sought the local currency's relative safety. That has forced the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to intervene repeatedly and push the currency lower against its U.S. counterpart. It did so Friday and again Monday, before Mr. Tsang's remarks, selling a total of HK$5.43 billion ($700.5 million) over the two days to keep the currency in its trading band. The monetary authority also intervened Tuesday during the New York trading session, selling HK$3.1 billion.

David Webb, a financial commentator, suggested it was inappropriate for Mr. Tsang to make his comments so publicly. 'By even broaching the subject, [the chief executive] risks creating speculative pressure on the existing peg,' Mr. Webb said in an email. He said Hong Kong shouldn't consider using the yuan unless it has been 'fully convertible for a sustained and credible period of time, without being subject to government manipulation.'

Many analysts said it will be at least five to 10 years before the yuan becomes fully convertible.

'Pegging Hong Kong's currency to another currency that isn't fully convertible in the global markets would undermine its status as a global financial center,' said Kelvin Lau, a senior economist with Standard Chartered.

香

港特区行政长官曾荫权(Donald Tsang)表示，如果人民币变为可以完全自由兑换的货币，香港可能考虑港元与人民币挂钩，不过他承认这很可能要花很多年时间。



Bloomberg News/Landov



香港特区行政长官曾荫权



曾荫权在瑞士信贷集团(Credit Suisse Group)组织的一次投资者论坛上回答提问时说，如果人民币实现完全自由兑换（虽然不知这何时会实现），但他确信香港将考虑港元挂钩人民币。曾荫权没有明确说明汇率挂钩的具体形式，不过他说这在未来很多、很多年都不太可能实现。

曾荫权的此番言论颇为罕见，因为香港官方很少承认港元有一天可能会放弃与美元挂钩。香港特区政府一直坚持与美元挂钩是其货币政策的基础。港元自1983年以来一直和美元挂钩，汇率为1美元兑7.8港元左右。

由于投资者纷纷解除由港元提供资金的其他货币的交易，转而寻求港元的相对安全性，去年大部分时间港元都吸引了强劲的需求。这迫使香港金融管理局再三干预，拉低港元兑美元汇率。香港金管局上周五、本周一再次出手（在曾荫权讲话之前），两个交易日总计出售54.3亿港元（合7.005亿美元），以保持港元汇率在限定交易区间内。香港金管局在周二的纽约交易时段也进行了干预，出售了31亿港元。

金融评论人士韦伯(David Webb)表示，曾荫权这样公开地表态是不适宜的。他在一封电子邮件中说，哪怕是稍稍开始触及这个话题，（曾荫权）都可能给现有的钉住机制制造投机压力。他说，除非人民币已经在一段持续、可靠的时间内实现了完全自由兑换，而且不会受到政府的操纵，否则香港不应该考虑与人民币挂钩。

很多分析人士说，至少需要5-10年的时间人民币才可能实现完全自由兑换。

渣打银行(Standard Chartered)高级经济学家刘健恒(Kelvin Lau)说，将港元与一种不能在全球市场上完全自由兑换的货币挂钩，这种做法会损害香港作为全球金融中心的地位。