The U.S. Commerce Department reports in its first estimate of economic performance for the January to March quarter, that the U.S. economy contracted at a bigger than forecasted annual rate - 6.1 percent.

This is the second three month period in which the economy shrank at a more than a six percent annual rate. The rate of decline was more than financial markets had expected. But despite that, stock prices rallied Wednesday as analysts found positive elements to the otherwise grim report. These included a slight increase in consumer spending and a replenishment of business inventories.

Christina Romer is President Barack Obama's chief economist.

"I'm kind of sticking with what the private forecasters are

telling me," said Christina Romer. "I think in the second quarter, we're absolutely going to see another fall.But it should be a fair amount smaller. And then, most people are now saying that we're going to bottom out, maybe in the third quarter - and then certainly by the end of the year, seeing positive growth again."

Romer spoke on Bloomberg Television, which also interviewed Michael Moran, Chief Economist at Daiwa Securities in New York.

"Consumers are going to have to take some time to repair their damaged balance sheets," said Michael Moran. "With the housing market down and the equity market well down, the household sector has lost a great deal of net worth. And I think you have to rebuild that."

Moran says the economy will expand at a rate of more than two percent during the second half of this year.

The International Monetary Fund last week forecast that the U.S. economy would contract by 2.8 percent this year, after expanding by about one percent last year. The U.S. recession, which began in December 2007, is the most severe since the Second World War.

In an effort to pull the economy out of recession, the Obama administration has won Congressional support for large increases in government spending to compensate for sagging consumer demand. In addition, the Federal Reserve - the nation's central bank - has lowered short-term interest rates to near zero percent and pumped huge amounts of money into the economy.

美国经济年下降幅度超过6%美国商务部星期三发表报告说，根据初步评估，美国经济在今年第一季度的收缩幅度超过预期，折合成年率为6.1%。这是政府对今年一到三月经济表现的第一次评估。

TEXT: 这是美国经济连续第二个季度以超过6%的年率收缩。这个收缩幅度超过了金融市场的预期。尽管如此，美国股市星期三还是强劲上扬，主要由于一些积极因素使投资人在这份令人沮丧的经济报导面前看到了新的希望，其中包括消费者可望增加开支和企业可望补充库存。

在今年第一季度6.1%国内生产总值收缩中，有2.79%是由于企业库存量大幅度减少了1037亿美元。如果不包括库存，今年头三个月的国内生产总值其实只下降了3.4%。而1037亿美元的库存减少实际上是个好消息，因为这显示生产商和零售商正在把他们未出售货物的库存量降低到一个更容易操纵的水平，而这正是任何经济复苏都不可缺少的前奏。

另外，美国央行联邦储备委员会星期三也报告说，有迹象显示经济衰退可能正在减缓，尽管美国经济仍会保持疲软。

克里斯蒂娜·罗默是奥巴马总统的首席经济顾问。她说：“我基本上同意民间经济学家们的预测。我认为，今年第二季度我们肯定会再次看到经济下滑，但是下滑的幅度会小一些。绝大多数人现在都说我们就要见底了，或许是在第三季度，而且肯定在今年年底，我们会再次看到经济出现增长。”

罗默是在接受彭博新闻电视采访的时候说这番话的。彭博新闻还同时采访了大和证券驻纽约的首席经济学家麦克·莫兰。莫兰说：“消费者将需要一些时间来修补他们受到损害的财务状况。由于房地产市场和股票市场大幅滑坡，家庭财富大幅缩水。这些都需要进行重建。”

莫兰认为，美国经济将在今年下半年以2%以上的幅度扩张。

然而上个星期，国际货币基金组织预测说，美国经济在去年增长了大约1%之后，今年将收缩2.8%。2007年12月开始的这场经济衰退是第二次世界大战以来美国经历的最严重的一次经济衰退。

为了推动经济走出衰退，奥巴马总统在国会的支持下通过扩大政府开支来刺激消费者需求。此外，美国的中央银行美联储把利率降低到接近于零的水平，并向经济部门大量注资。