A decade ago, I sometimes joked that “Davos Man” (as the global elite is sometimes dubbed) believed in a holy trinity of ideas. First, there was reverence for innovation; second, there was blind faith that capitalism was good; third, it was assumed that globalisation was beneficial and unstoppable. The 21st century was thus presumed to be an era when capitalism, innovation and globalisation would rule – and develop in a straight line. 十年前，我有时会开玩笑说，“达沃斯人”（人们有时会这样戏称全球精英人士）相信三个神圣的理念。第一，创新是受到尊崇的；第二，人们对资本主义优越性有一种盲信；第三，人们认为全球化是有益的，并且势不可挡。因而，他们认为，21世纪的法则将是资本主义、创新和全球化，并将直线式发展。

How times change. In the past five years, those free market ideals have been observed as much in the breach as in operation in the west, and faith in innovation has wilted too (check out some recent analysis by Peter Thiel and Garry Kasparov for a discussion of this). Last week, a study from McKinsey, the consultants, suggested that the third leg of that trinity – globalisation – is withering too. 时代变化真快。过去五年里，那些自由市场理念在西方世界中的反面案例与正面案例一样多，人们对创新的信念也有所减弱（可以看看彼得•蒂尔(Peter Thiel)和加里•卡斯帕罗夫(Garry Kasparov)最近在讨论这个问题时的一些分析）。两周前，咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)的一项研究显示，上述三个理念中的第三个，也就是对全球化的信念，也在不断减弱。

That might sound surprising, in some senses. After all, the internet is connecting the world more deeply every day and the 2008 financial crisis has not produced any real trade protectionism, of the sort seen in the 1930s. But behind the scenes – or, rather, deep in the financial data – something startling is afoot in the world of money. Far from an extension of globalisation, the 21st century is delivering localisation in financial flows. And since that is occurring amid greater state involvement in markets, the net result flies in the face of what Davos Man ever expected to see. 在某种意义上，这可能有点令人吃惊。毕竟，网络每天都在促使世界更加密切地联系在一起；2008年的金融危机，也没有导致上世纪三十年代那种真正意义上的贸易保护主义兴起。在这种现象背后，或者说，深深地隐藏在金融数据背后的是，资本世界正在出现某种惊人的变化。全球化远没有扩大，相反，随着人类进入21世纪，金融流动出现本地化趋势。鉴于这种现象发生在国家加大市场干预的过程中，其结果令“达沃斯人”始料未及。

The numbers are striking. In the decade before 2007, financial assets around the world were growing at a rate of almost 8 per cent a year, McKinsey calculates. But since then, total assets have barely risen, with the only point of expansion coming from public debt. Similarly, before 2007, cross border capital flows were expanding rapidly, in line with that globalisation mantra. But they have since shrunk some 60 per cent, as banks have slashed their cross-border loans, investors have taken their money home and governments have sold more bonds to captive citizens. 一些数据令人震惊。麦肯锡统计显示，在2007年之前的十年里，全球金融资产年增长率接近8%。但自那以后，全球金融资产总量就少有增长，唯一增长的部分就是公共债务。类似地，2007年之前，跨境资本流动增长迅速，恰恰支持了上述有关全球化的信念。但从那之后，随着银行纷纷减少跨境贷款发放，投资者将资金从海外撤回，政府也向投资渠道有限的本国民众出售了更多债券，跨境资本流动已累计缩减约60%。

If you want to be optimistic, this may merely mark a brief retrenchment. After all, one big factor behind those declining capital flows is the eurozone panic. Most notably, private sector banks have become wary about moving money across borders because of what JPMorgan describes as “convertibility risk” (or the chance of a eurozone break up.) And while the full scale of this trend has been partly concealed by public sector flows, via the Target 2 payment system used by central banks, McKinsey reckons that European banks’ cross border flows have fallen by $3.7tn, of which $2.8tn reflects lower intra-European flows. 如果你希望乐观地看待这件事，你或许可以认为这种缩减只是暂时的。毕竟，导致资本流动减少的一大因素是欧元区危机。最显著的一点是，私营银行开始警惕跨境资本流动操作，原因在于摩根大通(JPMorgan)所说的“兑换风险”（或者说是欧元区解体风险）。虽然公共领域的资本流动部分地掩盖了这种趋势的全貌（通过中央银行使用的泛欧自动实时总额清算快速转移系统2(TARGET2)），但麦肯锡认为，欧洲各银行的跨境资本流动规模已下降3.7万亿美元，其中2.8万亿美元是欧洲内部跨境资本流动减少所致。

However, the “good” news, as separate research by groups such as JPMorgan also observes, is that the Target 2 data suggests that this private sector panic has abated. And if you ignore the eurozone woes, the overall global decline in flows is far less dramatic. In fact, capital flows into the emerging markets have now bounced to the same level as before 2007, while so-called “south-south” transfers have risen sharply, to touch $1.9tn last year. 然而，“好”消息是，据摩根大通等机构的独立研究观察，TARGET2的数据显示，私营部门的恐慌已经减轻。如果忽略欧元区困境的影响，全球跨境资本流动规模的降幅远没有上述估计那样惊人。实际上，目前新兴市场的资本流入规模已恢复到2007年之前的水平，而所谓的“南南”跨境资本转移规模已大幅增加，去年达到了1.9万亿美元。

If you want to be even more upbeat, it should also be noted that even after the 60 per cent decline in flows, activity is still “only” back at the level last seen in 2003, or before the really heady expansion. The post-crisis shrinkage, in other words, might merely be the loss of bubble-era froth; or an adjustment towards a more sustainable trend. 如果你希望更乐观地看待这件事，你还应注意一点：即便如今跨境资本流动规模下降了60%，资本活动依然“只是”回到了2003年时的水平，也就是跨境资本流动规模真正开始迅速增长之前的水平。换句话说，后金融危机时代跨境资本流动规模的缩减，可能只是在撇掉泡沫时代产生的泡沫，或者说，是在向一种更加可持续的趋势转变过程中的调整。

But the really key question is what happens next. One possibility is that financial globalisation will start deepening again, once this “adjustment” is over. After all, investors, governments and borrowers now face overwhelming incentives to find new ways to channel money around the world, given that some sectors of global finance are now stuffed with cash, while others are cash starved. Thus, McKinsey believes – or hopes – that the pressure to get capital flowing will spark more reforms; it suggests, for example, that the corporate bond market could see $1tn worth of issuance to global investors in the coming years, as those funding incentives rise. 但真正关键的问题是，接下来会发生什么。一种可能性是，当这种“调整”结束之后，金融全球化将继续深化。毕竟，鉴于全球金融中某些领域资金过度充裕，而其他一些领域则资金匮乏，投资者、政府、以及借贷者现在非常有动力去寻找一些新方式、让资金在全球范围内流动。因此，麦肯锡相信（或者说希望），促进资本流动的压力将催生更多改革。麦肯锡认为，比如说，随着上述筹资动力的增强，未来几年公司债券市场可能将向全球投资者发行一万亿美元的债券。

But it is possible to visualise another scenario too: if economic and political tensions keep rising, and the anti-banking lobby grows in power, cross-border controls might increase further. If so, the resulting distortions in credit prices could create arbitrage opportunities for canny investors. But they could also lead to capital shortages and a much slower pace of growth. And while that scenario might still be less, not more likely, it cannot be ignored. After all, the last time cross border capital flows collapsed, in the 1930s, the ensuing localisation trend remained in place for decades, not years. Investors, be warned: change does not always go in a straight line. Least of all when the elite blithely assumes that it does. 但也存在另外一种可能性：如果经济和政治方面的压力持续加剧，反对银行业的游说团体力量增强，跨境资本流动管制可能会进一步加强。如果发生这种情况，会导致信贷价格扭曲，从而可能为精明的投资者带来套利机会。但这种情况也可能导致资金短缺，以及经济增速的严重放缓。虽然这种情况发生的可能性低于前两种，但仍不容忽视。毕竟，跨境资本流动上一次崩溃（发生在上世纪三十年代）时，随后出现的金融本地化趋势持续了几十年，而不是几年。投资者们，请谨记：变化并不总是直线式发生。当精英们愉快地假设变化不会突然爆发时，事实尤其可能令他们大吃一惊。