Japanese carmakers could be forgiven for blaming their recent sales slump in China entirely on geopolitical reasons beyond their control. Footage of Chinese owners of Japanese cars being attacked during last September’s anti-Japanese protests was shown widely on national television – the kind of advertising that carmakers could do without. 如果日本汽车制造商将最近在华销量下滑完全归咎于它们无法控制的地缘政治因素，它们可能会得到人们的原谅。去年9月反日抗议期间，很多中国车主的日本车遭到攻击，国家电视台播放了很多这样的镜头。这种“广告”是汽车制造商不想要的。

But companies such as Toyota, market leader among the Japanese in China, are admitting that their problems in China go beyond politics: “In the past, the effect of such things has gone away in about half a year,” Hiroji Onishi, Toyota’s China chief executive, told journalists yesterday at the Shanghai auto show. “But we expect it will be harder this year,” he said, predicting that recovery to pre-protest levels could take until August. Carlos Ghosn, chief executive of Renault-Nissan, said recently that Nissan’s growth plan in China had been set back by about a year also. 但中国汽车市场日本品牌的领军企业丰田(Toyota)等公司承认，它们在中国的问题超越了政治因素：“过去，这类事件的影响会在半年左右消散，”丰田中国区首席执行官大西弘致(Hiroji Onishi)上周日在上海车展上告诉记者。“但我们预测，今年将更为艰难，”他表示。他预测，要回到反日抗议之前的销量水平，可能需要等到8月后。雷诺-日产(Renault-Nissan)首席执行官卡洛斯•戈恩(Carlos Ghosn)最近表示，日产在华增长计划被延迟了大约一年。

One reason for the delay, Toyota officials said later, is their product line-up: some customers may be refusing to buy, not because of political risk, but because they are waiting for the launch of models that they like more than those on offer. China is a market where new launches have a disproportionately large impact on sales. 丰田高管后来表示，销量延迟复苏的一个原因是产品系列：一些客户拒绝购买的原因可能不是害怕政治风险，而是因为他们在等待比目前更满意的车型推出。在中国市场，新车发布对销量有着特别巨大的影响。

Toyota has high hopes for the launch later this year of the new RAV4 – a popular small crossover sport utility vehicle in a market increasingly obsessed with SUVs. Mr Onishi also spoke candidly about the need for Toyota to focus more on small cars in China, where US and European manufacturers have so far been more successful. 丰田对于今年晚些时候发布的新款RAV4寄望很高。中国市场对运动型多功能车(SUV)日益着迷，这款小型SUV颇受欢迎。大西弘致还坦率地谈到，在中国，丰田须更关注小型车，到目前为止，欧美制造商在中国汽车市场的表现更为成功。

Nissan says it has been quicker to recover from last year’s protests, partly because of the recent launch of its new Teana. But dealer Zeng Xianfeng in Guangzhou, the southern heartland of the Japanese brands, says recovery has been painfully slow. Some dealerships were attacked during the protests and in one particularly gruesome incident, a middle-aged man was yanked from his Japanese car and beaten by a mob. 日产表示，该公司较为迅速地扭转了去年反日抗议期间销量下滑的局面，部分原因是近期新款天籁(Teana)的发布。但广州汽车经销商曾贤峰（音译）表示，复苏过程既缓慢又痛苦。广州是日本汽车品牌在中国南方的销售中心。一些经销商在反日抗议中遭到攻击，在一起尤为可怕的事件中，一伙暴徒将一中年男子强拽出他的日本车，并对其拳打脚踢。

“The disturbance of the Diaoyu Islands [known in Japanese as the Senkaku] had a great impact last year,” he says. “People did not dare to buy Japanese cars. It lasted for quite a few months until the end of the year when things started to recover,” he adds. “去年，钓鱼岛（日本称之为尖阁诸岛(Senkaku)）事件造成了巨大影响，”他表示。“人们不敢买日本车。这种情况持续了好几个月，直到去年年底情况才开始好转，”他补充称。

As Mr Zeng speaks, an elderly Chinese man tries out the driver’s seat of the new Teana. “I am not too worried, I don’t think there will be a big problem in the co-operation between China and Japan, especially in economic matters,” he says. “I still want a Japanese car,” he says, but admits that he has also considered a Ford instead, because of the tensions. Ford of the US and South Korea’s Hyundai have been the biggest beneficiaries of the Japanese loss of market share. 在曾贤峰说话时，一位中国老大爷试坐了一下新款天籁的驾驶座。“我不太担心，我认为，中日合作不会出现大问题，尤其是经济合作，”他表示。“我仍然想买一辆日本车，”他说。但他承认，由于中日紧张局势，他也考虑了福特(Ford)车。美国福特和韩国现代(Hyundai)是日本汽车丧失市场份额的最大受益者。

But things have begun to look up for Japanese carmakers recently, says Max Warburton, auto analyst at Sanford Bernstein in Singapore. “Most Japanese carmakers say they are back to 85 or 90 per cent of the demand they had a year ago.” 但伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)驻新加坡汽车分析师马克斯•沃伯顿(Max Warburton)表示，最近日本汽车制造商的情况开始好转。“多数日本汽车制造商称，他们的汽车需求恢复到了一年前的85%或90%。”

Namrita Chow of IHS Automotive in Shanghai says: “By 2015, we see Japanese brands with about 14 per cent market share in China.” That would be just about even with 2012 market share of 13.9 per cent, she says, adding 2013 market share will be about 13.2 per cent. IHS Automotive驻上海的Namrita Chow表示：“我们预测，到2015年，日本品牌将占据中国14%左右的市场份额。”她指出，这几乎与2012年13.9%的市场份额持平，并补充称，2013年的市场份额将达到13.2%左右。

“They will come back because they will launch new models,” says Klaus Paur, head of global automotive for Ipsos consultancy. 咨询机构益普索(Ipsos)全球汽车市场主管包亦农(Klaus Paur)表示：“它们将回归市场，因为它们将发布新车型。”

But long term, no one can predict the impact of the political uncertainty that is likely to continue to surround Japanese carmakers in China, given the fraught nature of Sino-Japanese relations. 但长期来说，鉴于令人担忧的中日关系，没有人能预料到政治不确定性的影响，这种不确定性可能会继续笼罩日本在华汽车制造商。

“At some point the protests will become less relevant for consumer purchasing decisions but the problem is on the dealer side,” says Ivo Naumann of AlixPartners consultancy in Shanghai. “If you think that every two to three years you will have these disruptions . . . will dealers stop investing in the brand?” he asks. “未来某一时刻，抗议活动将变成一个对消费者购买决定不那么重要的因素，但问题在于经销商方面，”咨询公司艾睿铂(AlixPartners)驻上海的罗曼(Ivo Naumann)表示。“如果你认为，每两三年就会出现这种破坏的话……经销商是否会停止投资这一品牌？”他问道。

Analysts say that could be the biggest hurdle yet for the Japanese, as they compete with European and American automakers in the race to open dealerships in the hinterland of China, the new growth frontier. 分析师表示，对于日本汽车制造商而言，这可能是目前最大的障碍，此际他们正与欧美汽车制造商竞争，争取在中国内陆地区（汽车销售新的增长领域）设立经销商。