西方疏忽酿成马里梦魇

The west has let negligence in the Sahel turn into a nightmare

Mali’s tragedy is the result of a misalignment in the stars. Unusual geopolitical circumstances triggered a shock; a further coincidence prevented a timely response. The repercussions are now being felt in Algeria and beyond.

马里悲剧是时运不济所致。不同寻常的地缘政治环境引发了一场动荡；进一步的巧合妨碍了有关方面及时采取对策。现在影响已经扩散到阿尔及利亚及周边地区。

Until the Libyan revolution culminating in October 2011, Mali was not a fragile state. In June that year, the International Monetary Fund listed 48 such states. Mali was on none of them. By the standards of low-income countries, it was secure. Admittedly, it was neither inclusive nor effective: the Tuareg minority was beyond the pale; patronage and corruption were common. This kind of combination leaves many democracies more prone to political violence than the dictatorships they replaced.

在2011年10月利比亚革命达到高潮之前，马里并不是一个脆弱国家(fragile state)。2011年6月国际货币基金组织(IMF)列出了48个脆弱国家，马里并不在名单上。按照低收入国家的标准，马里本来的局势也比较稳定。不过，有目共睹的是，这个国家既不具有包容性，也没有效率：少数族裔图阿雷格人(Tuareg)受到排斥；任人唯亲与腐败司空见惯。在这些因素综合作用下，许多民主国家比它们所取代的独裁政权更容易诉诸于政治暴力。

The fall of Libya’s Muammer Gaddafi inflicted an avoidable military threat on the region. Many of the weapons stockpiled in his country were seized by gangs bent on mischief. A parallel served as a warning: the conflicts triggered by arms looted during Albania’s 1997 meltdown. However, there was no international appetite for the ground operation necessary to secure the stockpile. The urgent task, therefore, was to protect neighbouring regimes. In Mali, this meant turning an army starved of equipment and led by the less able children of the elite into a fighting force.

利比亚穆阿迈尔•卡扎菲(Muammer Gaddafi)政权的倒台不可避免地给该地区带来军事威胁。利比亚境内囤积的大批武器落入一心为恶的团伙之手。前车可以为鉴：1997年阿尔巴尼亚动乱期间武器遭抢劫，引发了冲突。不过，要保障武器储备的安全，就必须采取地面行动，而国际社会没有意愿这么做。因此，迫在眉睫的任务是保护周边地区的政权。在马里，这意味着把装备匮乏、由能力欠佳的当权派子女带领的军队打造成一支有战斗力的部队。

The need to provide equipment was recognised, but the coincidence of the US and French electoral cycles made it too sensitive to do much about it. Instead, the government received money for arms. But, as no attention was paid to the risk of corruption, it was looted. This left the army ill matched against the experienced, motivated, superbly equipped gangs – including Malian mercenaries returning from Libya with their weapons – that descended on it. The unsurprising result was the slaughter of its soldiers, provoking a mutiny from the ranks that escalated into seizure of power.

人们公认，必须给马里提供装备，但美国和法国都赶上选举周期，因此这么做太过敏感。相反，马里政府收到了购买武器的资金。但由于没有考虑到腐败的风险，资金被劫掠一空。这导致政府军在经验丰富、斗志昂扬、装备精良的叛乱组织来袭时力不从心。这些叛乱者中包括带着武器从利比亚返回的马里雇佣兵。结果一点都不意外，士兵遭到屠杀，引发军队叛变，进而升级为权力争斗。