China just can’t seem to catch a break these days. For the country’s perennial naysayers, the issues facing the world’s second-largest economy are coming home to roost: slowing growth as China shifts from an export-dependent economy to a consumer-driven one, a boom in shadow banking prompting fears of a credit bubble, an overheating housing market and a flabby underbelly of inefficient state-owned companies that survive only thanks to cheap finance. 如今的中国似乎坏消息不断。在一贯唱衰中国的人看来，世界第二大经济体大难临头：在经济从出口依赖型向消费驱动型转变的过程中，增长趋于放缓；影子银行的繁荣引发对信贷泡沫的忧虑；房地产市场过热；依靠廉价融资才得以生存的国有企业低效、“虚胖”。

It’s a take on China that is, in my view, both fashionable and largely inaccurate, scaring investors away from a market that has the potential to offer a level of investment return that is increasingly difficult to find elsewhere. 我认为，对中国的这种观点虽然流行，但多半是错误的，中国市场有潜力提供在别处越发难以寻觅的高投资回报率，可是这种论调却将投资者吓跑。

Much of the latest concern about China revolves around recent GDP data showing the economy grew by “only” 7.7 per cent in the first three months of the year. Yes, the consensus expectation among economists was for growth of 8 per cent, but the economy is still ticking along at a pace that currently exceeds the Chinese government’s own 2013 GDP forecast of 7.5 per cent growth. Meanwhile, inflation, last year’s main source of worry, also looks to have been tamed. It slowed down sharply in March, with consumer prices rising just 2.1 per cent from a year earlier. 近期对中国的担忧主要集中在最新发布的国内生产总值(GDP)数据上：中国经济在今年的头三个月“仅仅”增长7.7%。的确，经济学家们原本普遍预计增长率能达到8%，但当前中国经济的运行速度起码高于中国政府自身对2013年全年经济增长7.5%的预测。与此同时，去年最令人担忧的通胀看来有所缓和。3月份通胀率显著下降，消费价格同比仅上升2.1%。

All these figures point to a more benign economic climate compared to 12 months ago when the economy was in a process of slowing down. Companies have been the main beneficiaries of this stabilisation of the economy. On a trip to China in early March, senior executives at several firms I visited were more positive about the outlook for their business, telling us inventories were returning to more normal levels whilst customers were being more judicious about paying promptly for goods and services. The consensus forecast is for Chinese companies to achieve earnings growth in the region of 12-14 per cent for 2013, which is in my view achievable given the low point of comparison with the previous year. 所有这些数据表明，比起12个月前经济处于放缓轨道的局面，目前中国经济环境更加有利。企业是经济回稳的主要受益者。3月初我曾前往中国，拜访了多家公司的高管。他们对自家企业的前景更为乐观，并告诉我们库存正回归正常水平，而客户也更加通情达理，愿意及时支付货物和服务款项。目前的预测共识是，2013年中国企业盈利将增长12%至14%，鉴于去年的比较基数较低，我认为这是可以实现的。

There is, however, some legitimate concern over the growth of “shadow banking” in China, which refers to a variety of types of credit from trust loans, bank acceptance bills and underground lending, that don’t appear on banks’ balance sheets. The new administration has made it clear that it will continue to apply regulatory pressure to prevent a situation where the country might face the sort of financial crisis experienced by western nations in 2007-08. 不过，有人对中国“影子银行”的发展表达了合理的担忧。影子银行是指不出现在银行资产负债表上的各种信贷，包括信托贷款、银行承兑汇票和“地下钱庄”等等。新一届政府明确表示将继续施加监管压力，防止西方国家在2007-08年经历的金融危机在中国上演。

The growth of shadow banking also points to the need for further deregulation and development of China’s capital markets to ensure appropriate sources of funding are available. The pace of reform should pick up as the new Chinese administration settles in. We expect to see measures taken to boost the development of a functioning corporate and municipal bond market as well as steps involving the liberalisation of interest rates and the creation of a deposit insurance scheme. 影子银行的发展也表明，中国资本市场需要进一步放松管制和发展，以确保企业能够从恰当的来源融资。随着新政府度过适应期，改革应会提速。我们预料中国政府会采取措施推动公司债券和市政债券的良性发展，并拿出与利率自由化和建立存款保险制度相关的举措。

What becomes increasingly clear is that the Chinese authorities remain very attentive to any pinch points that may be developing in the economy. The property market is another case in point. Worrying signs of a housing bubble have prompted the authorities to make it more difficult for individuals, for instance, looking to obtain a loan to buy a third home. 越发明显的是，中国当局仍然非常警惕经济中所有可能正在发酵的危险因素。房地产市场是另一个典型例子。针对住房市场一些令人担忧的泡沫迹象，当局出台了政策限制贷款购买第三套房等行为。

The same pro-active approach is now being taken with the country’s ailing state-owned companies. In March, the Chinese administration appointed Jiang Jiemin, the former chairman of the country’s biggest state-owned oil and gas producer, to head the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC). He is widely expected to launch reforms that will see state-owned firms in energy, transport and finance face more private competition. 中国还对经营状况不佳的国有企业采取同样的积极应对策略。3月份，中国最大的国有石油和天然气生产商中石油董事长蒋洁敏被任命为国资委(SASAC)主任。外界普遍预期他将推行改革，让能源、交通和金融领域的国有企业面临更多来自私营部门的竞争。

Investors should always remember that China remains the land of the Five Year Plan. It is a command economy. Both the new President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang played key roles in formulating the country’s 12th five-year plan that runs until 2015. In a fast-developing nation like China, this highly structured approach to managing economic growth should be viewed as a reliable safety net for those seeking to invest in the country. 投资者应始终牢记，中国仍是实行“五年规划”的计划经济国家。新主席习近平和新总理李克强在中国“十二五规划”（截至2015年）的制定中发挥了重要作用。在像中国这样快速发展的国家，这种极有条理的经济增长管理方法应被视为投资者的可靠“安全网”。