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西方应调整对伊朗外交政策

发布者: sunny214 | 发布时间: 2013-6-19 08:30| 查看数: 711| 评论数: 0|

Iranians delivered a dramatic setback to their hardline leadership by casting their votes for the only moderate candidate in Friday’s presidential elections.

伊朗人民在上周五的总统选举中把票投给了唯一的温和派候选人,令该国的强硬派领导层遭遇戏剧性挫折。

Instead of the presumed favourite of the supreme leader, the intransigent nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, the electorate voted for Hassan Rohani, a centrist cleric best remembered for suspending nuclear enrichment when he was in charge of nuclear diplomacy in the early 2000s.

选民们没有选择最高领导人显然青睐的候选人、态度僵硬的现任核谈判代表萨伊德•贾利利(Saeed Jalili),而是投票支持中间立场的神职人员哈桑•鲁哈尼(Hassan Rohani,见右图)。鲁哈尼给世人留下的最深刻印象是,本世纪初他执掌伊朗核外交时,曾暂停该国的铀浓缩活动。

Whether Mr Rohani won in spite of opposition from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or with his last-minute consent may never be known. But his election sends a powerful message that Iranians are fed up with extremist policies, whether in economic management or relations with the rest of the world.

鲁哈尼究竟是顶住阿亚图拉阿里•哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)的反对而胜选,还是在最后一刻得到后者的点头,外人也许永远无从得知。但他的当选发出一个强有力的信号:伊朗人厌倦了极端主义政策——无论是在经济管理方面,还是在处理伊朗与世界其他国家的关系方面。

Four years after Mr Khamenei ignored the vote for a reformist presidential candidate and handed the firebrand Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad a second term, this election confirms Iranians will not be cowed by repression. It is with reformist votes stolen in 2009 that Mr Rohani won an outright victory in the first round, against five more hardline candidates.

四年前,哈梅内伊无视民众投给一位改革派总统候选人的选票,而是让强硬的马哈茂德•艾哈迈迪-内贾德(Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad)白白获得了第二个任期。四年后的这场选举证实,伊朗人民不会在压迫之下屈服。正是借助曾在2009年被窃取的改革派选票,鲁哈尼才能在首轮投票中决定性地胜出,击败了五位立场比较强硬的候选人。

Mr Rohani’s election could present a new opportunity for international diplomacy at a time of heightened tension with Iran over its nuclear programme as well as its political and military backing for the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad. While Tehran has scaled back the stockpile of 20 per cent enriched uranium, it has continued to build up the capacity of more advanced centrifuges, potentially allowing for a faster dash to a nuclear bomb.

鲁哈尼的当选可能给国际外交开启一扇机遇之窗;目前无论是针对伊朗核计划,还是针对伊朗给予叙利亚巴沙尔•阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)政权的政治与军事支持,国际社会都与伊朗处于紧张状态。尽管伊朗方面已经缩减了20%纯度浓缩铀的库存,但该国却继续扩充更先进的离心机的加工能力,这有可能使其能以更快的冲刺速度制造出一枚核弹。

It will require a careful calibration of western diplomacy to strengthen the re-emerging moderates in Iran and further weaken hardliners who will continue to control powerful institutions, not least the elite Revolutionary Guards.

西方需要小心翼翼地调整外交,以增强伊朗重新崛起的温和派的势力,同时进一步削弱强硬派,后者将继续控制该国的强力机构,包括精锐的革命卫队。

The vote for Mr Rohani does not mean Iranians reject the nuclear programme; the president-elect himself is a staunch supporter. But it tells us they are unwilling to pay the price of sanctions for the sake of more defiance.

把票投给鲁哈尼并不意味着伊朗人对核计划说不;当选总统本人就是一名坚定支持者。但这个选举结果告诉我们,他们不愿为了摆出更多对抗姿态而付出受制裁的代价。

Although Mr Rohani will not be the decision-maker on Iran’s nuclear policy, a more moderate tone of diplomacy could make engagement with Iran easier. His influence could lead to more flexibility in nuclear negotiations that will resume later in the year. His abilities will be tested, not least in moderating Iran’s belligerence. But his presidency offers a chance of a new page in Iran’s international relations.

虽然鲁哈尼不会是伊朗核政策的决策者,但是更为温和的外交基调可能会使外界更易于同伊朗接触。他的影响力可能导致在今年晚些时候重启的核谈判中出现更多灵活性。鲁哈尼的能力将受到考验,尤其是在缓和伊朗的好斗态度方面。尽管如此,他的总统任期仍提供了一个伊朗掀开国际关系新篇章的机会。


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