The message is clear: BlackBerry is probably finished as a standalone company. The woebegone pioneer in mobile email has announced the ominous “strategic alternatives” process. That may culminate in the sale of the company or a tie-up with a heftier competitor. But the company’s flagging prospects are nothing new, so shareholders are right to wonder if BlackBerry would have been better off putting up the for-sale sign months ago.

讯息是清晰的：黑莓(BlackBerry)作为一家独立公司的日子很可能已经结束了。这家移动电子邮件的先驱愁眉苦脸地宣布启动不祥的“战略替代选择”过程。这意味着最后可能会出售该公司或与更强大的对手结盟。但该公司萎靡不振的前景并非最近才有，所以股东们有理由怀疑，黑莓在数月前就挂牌出售，会不会得到更好结果？

Not necessarily. Two things stand out from the latest smartphone market share statistics from IDC. First, the latest BlackBerry devices, introduced to great fanfare, are not catching on. Blackberry’s mobile market share in the latest quarter slipped to below 3 per cent. Second, the market share data also show that there is space for a third mobile operating system after Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android.

未必如此。国际数据公司(IDC)有关智能手机市场份额的最新统计数据有两点引人关注。首先，黑莓大张旗鼓推出的最新款手机，并未获得市场热烈反响。黑莓在最近一个季度市场份额下滑至3%以下。其次，市场份额数据还显示，在苹果(Apple)手机iOS操作系统和谷歌(Google) Android系统之后，还有充足空间留给第三大手机操作系统。

Windows mobile actually doubled its shipments to nearly 9m phones, primarily through sales of Nokia devices. This traction that Windows found is what BlackBerry was after. With a sizeable base of existing users (more than 70m people) and with a device that was favourably reviewed, BlackBerry had a puncher’s chance of survival. So it was right to go for the bronze medal when it had the chance.

微软Windows系统手机的出货量实际上增加了一倍，至近900万，主要是通过诺基亚(Nokia)手机的销售。Windows手机得到的这一势头，正是黑莓所追寻的。基于相当规模的现有用户基础（逾7000万人），以及一款颇受好评的手机，黑莓曾有一线生存机会。所以抓住机会去争夺铜牌是合理的。

Before the latest sale rumours, BlackBerry shares traded about $9. The shares had traded near $16 earlier this year on the optimism around BlackBerry 10 but faded on the poor results. But $9 is still a third higher than where its shares bottomed in the past 12 months.

在传出最新的出售传言之前，黑莓股价大约是9美元。今年早些时候在有关黑莓10的乐观情绪下，股价曾接近16美元，但因业绩不佳而下跌。不过9美元的股价，仍比过去12月中的股价最低点高了三分之一。

And the company’s current cash balance of $3bn – or almost $6 per share – is a billion higher than a year ago. Intellectual property if sold may have better retained its value as well.

而且该公司目前现金余额为30亿美元（相当于每股6美元），比一年前高了10亿美元。如果出售知识产权，也许能更好地保值。

Things did not work out for BlackBerry. But taking its best shot was the correct choice.

黑莓的努力没有达到预期目标。但放手一搏是正确的选择。