Efforts to secure Syria's chemical weapons and regulate Iran's nuclear program have again raised the idea of a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction. But analysts say regional rivalries stand in the way.

确保叙利亚化武安全和规范伊朗核计划的努力再次引发中东消除大规模杀伤性武器的想法。但分析人士们说，区域的争斗造成了障碍。

A U.N. mission to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons, and efforts to regulate Iran's nuclear program, have raised hopes the Middle East is on its way to limiting the threat of weapons of mass destruction.

一个消除叙利亚化学武器和管制伊朗核计划的联合国使团使中东即将限制大规模杀伤性武器威胁的希望有所增大。

But for political analysts like Professor Emad Shahin of the American University in Cairo, it's a long-standing, and long-odds, dream.

但对于伊马德.沙欣教授这样的政治分析家来说，这是一个旷日持久、充满变数的梦想。

“The region will be much better off it is chemical free and nuclear free." he said. "However, this has been on the table for decades.”

沙欣说：“实现无化武化和无核化，该地区情况会好得多。但是，这个问题已经放到谈判桌上几十年了。”

Transparency is one of the obstacles. Iran dismisses Western accusations it is seeking nuclear weapons. Syria only confirmed its chemical stockpile when threatened with a U.S. missile strike.

透明度是障碍之一。伊朗驳斥西方说它正在寻求核武器的指责。叙利亚只是在受到美国导弹袭击的威胁时才证实其化学武器储备。

Egypt, Libya, Iraq and Iran are all believed to have chemical weapons, as is Israel, which also has unacknowledged nuclear capability.

埃及、利比亚、伊拉克和伊朗都被认为拥有化学武器，如同以色列拥有尚未公开承认的核能力。

While piecemeal efforts to contain the threat are underway, political sociologist Said Sadek argues the problem should be looked at in its totality.

政治社会学家萨迪克认为，虽然控制威胁的零打碎敲的努力正在进行中，但这个问题应该整体来看。

“This has to be a joint effort by all participants," he said. "But as long as there is conflict, there is always justification for keeping the weapons.”

萨迪克说：“必须由所有参与者共同努力。但只要有冲突，总是有保持武器的理由。”

As with many issues in the region, debate often turns to Israel. Emad Shahin said, “There is a kind of a defense doctrine that has been imposed on the region, whether it is deliberate or not, but it's a de facto doctrine that Israel should be militarily superior to all its neighbors combined.”

正如讨论该地区的许多问题那样，辩论常常转向以色列。沙欣说：“有一种强加在地区的防御信条，无论是有意或无意，但它是一个事实上的信条，即在军事上，以色列应该比其所有邻国加在一起还要强。 ”

The perception of a regional imbalance colors current efforts at disarmament, despite the apparent deterrence such weapons imposed on Israel and Syria for decades. Again, Emad Shahin said, “Dismantling these arsenals as a way of pressuring countries, while at the same time maintaining this strategic imbalance between regional powers, this is what really creates lots of problems.”

该地区的力量对比失衡的看法影响着当前的裁军努力，尽管有这种武器让以色列和叙利亚几十年来承受的明显威慑。沙欣说：“拆除这些武库作为对相关国家施压的一种方式，同时保持这个地区大国之间的战略失衡，这确实造成很多问题。”

So, too, argue some, is the way President Obama handled the Syrian crisis. backing down from strikes for the alleged use of chemical weapons by Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, says Said Sadek, will encourage the pursuit of weapons of mass destruction by others.

有些人认为，这也是美国总统奥巴马处理叙利亚危机的方式。开罗美国大学萨伊德.萨迪克说，从对叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德涉嫌使用化学武器实施打击后退，将鼓励别人寻求大规模杀伤性武器。

"For Obama, he wanted face saving. He wanted new ways," he said. "There is no way you can solve Iran's nuclear program. And the credibility of the U.S. has been bruised with this Syrian chemical issue. Assad got away with it."

萨迪克说：“对于奥巴马来说，他要保全面子。他想要新的方式。你没有办法能解决伊朗的核计划。美国的信誉被叙利亚的化武问题损伤了。阿萨德没事了。”

Although Iran maintains its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes, many in the region, not just Israel, are skeptical.

尽管伊朗坚称其核计划完全用于和平目的，但该地区许多国家，不仅仅是以色列，都抱有怀疑。

“It can also push some countries like Egypt and also Saudi Arabia to seek their own nuclear programs and try to do some balance,” he said.

萨迪克说：“这也会促使一些国家，譬如埃及和沙特阿拉伯，寻求自己的核计划，并尝试做一些平衡。”

It's a scenario, Sadek says, that despite international efforts, could push the volatile region into an even greater arms race.

萨迪克说，尽管有国际社会的努力，这样一个场景可能会把这个动荡的地区推向规模更大的军备竞赛。