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VOA双语新闻:美国债务违约对美国和世界经济的影响

发布者: sunnyHU | 发布时间: 2013-10-10 21:11| 查看数: 781| 评论数: 1|

Asia’s two biggest economies, Japan and China, are voicing concerns about the ongoing government shutdown in Washington and the possibility that Congress may fail to raise the debt ceiling, leading to a government default.

亚洲两个最大的经济体日本和中国对美国政府继续部分关闭表示关注,他们担心美国国会可能不会及时提高债务上限,从而导致政府债务违约。

Financial leaders there are telling U.S. officials, both openly and in private, about the ripple effect the dispute in Washington could have on their investments in bonds and what that could mean for their own economies.

日本和中国金融部门的官员公开和私下里都向美国官员表示担心,他们担心美国政府部分关闭可能会损害到他们的投资,并可能影响到他们本国的经济。

According to U.S. Treasury figures, Japan owns $1.135 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds and China slightly more at $1.277 trillion.

据美国财政部提供的数字,日本持有1.135万亿美国债券($1.135 trillion),中国手里的美国债卷比日本稍多,为1.277万亿美元。

Speaking at a regular news briefing on Tuesday, Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso urged political leaders in Washington to resolve the debate before the October 17 deadline, when the United States risks defaulting on its debts.

日本财务金融大臣麻生太郎星期二在例行记者会上敦促华盛顿的政界领袖在10月17日美国债务违约之前解决有关争议。

On Monday, China's deputy finance minister, Zhu Guangyao, urged U.S. leaders to learn from the past, noting the last time the dispute neared the brink in 2011, the credit rating agency Standard and Poor's downgraded the U.S. credit rating.

中国财政部副部长朱光耀星期一督促美国政界领袖吸取过去的教训。他说,2011年信誉评估公司标准普尔就在美国逼近债务违约期限的时候将美国的信用等级下调。

"The U.S. knows clearly China’s concerns on the financial stalemate," Zhu said. "China also learned that President Obama and the treasury secretary and other branches of the executive branch know the seriousness of the situation and are taking measures to avoid a default. However, we have seen the clock is ticking.”

朱光耀说:“美方完全清楚中方对美国财政僵局的关注。奥巴马总统和杰克·布卢财长等美国行政当局完全认识到维护美国证券信誉对美国的极端重要性,正在努力采取措施来防止美国国债的违约。但是要强调的是,现在的时间已经不多了。”

Song Hong, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Science says it is not just the price of U.S. bonds that will be impacted if the dispute is not resolved.

中国社科院的经济学家宋鸿说,如果华盛顿的争端得不到解决,受影响的不仅是美国债券的价格。

"If the debt is not adjusted then I think that it will have a big hit on the stability of the U.S. bond market, and the U.S. bond market has a direct link with the international status and value of the U.S. dollar," said Song. "This kind of scenario will have repercussions not just for China, but for the whole world economy, because the U.S. dollar is a global currency.”

他说:“美国国债如果不调整,对于美国国债市场就会有很大的冲击,而美元的国债市场就直接影响到美国和美元在国际上的地位,包括它的价值。这样一种变化不光对中国,对全球经济都会造成冲击,因为美元是基本的、最重要的货币,对所有国家都会造成影响。中国也不例外。”

Both China and Japan rely on exports to keep their economies humming and any impact on the value of the U.S. dollar hurts their trading competitiveness. That competitiveness has helped Japan’s Prime Minister boost the Japanese economy in recent months.

中国和日本都靠出口来维持本国经济的繁荣,美元贬值会伤害到他们的贸易竞争力。而日本首相安倍晋三之所以能够在最近几个月振兴日本经济靠得就是这种竞争力。

China too needs economic stability as its growth slows. The country’s new leader Chinese President Xi Jinping is poised to introduce a new wave of economic reforms at a Communist Party meeting next month. Policymakers have been trying to move the country away from its heavy reliance on exports for economic growth.

中国在经济发展放慢的情况下也需要稳定经济。中国新任国家主席习近平打算在下个月的中共会议上启动新一轮经济改革。中国的决策者一直设法改变经济发展过于依赖出口的状况。

Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian Economics at HSBC in Hong Kong says the big fear for Chinese policymakers is that with the potential gridlock on Capitol Hill, the potential default could lead to another recession in the United States.

香港汇丰银行亚洲经济部主任弗里德里克·纽曼说,中国领导人最担心的是随着美国国会可能出现僵局,美国可能会违约拖欠债务,导致美国陷入另一场经济放缓。

“And that would hurt China through slowing exports to the U.S. and that is really something that would then require even more stimulus locally to help the Chinese economy sort of to withstand the blow from a U.S. default, and Chinese officials are not terribly keen on adding more stimulus to the economy," he said.

他说:“那样将减缓对美国的出口,从而损害中国,使中国需要实施更多的地方刺激措施来帮助中国经济经受来自美国违约拖欠债务的打击。而中国官员并不十分热衷于增加更多的刺激经济的措施。”

Neumann adds, however, that this does not mean that China would be the biggest loser if the default were to happen because it is not the majority holder of U.S. debt.

不过,纽曼补充说,这并不意味着如果美国债务违约发生,中国就是最大的受害者,因为它并不是美国国债的最大持有者。

“Most of U.S. debt is still held within the United States by pension funds, insurance companies, banks and so forth, and to the extent that the U.S. government defaults on those bonds, it would hurt American savers just as much as overseas savers," he said. "And therefore it would be an own goal it would be essentially the U.S. shooting itself in the foot, by defaulting on its own debt.”

他说:“大部分美国国债仍然由美国国内的退休基金、保险公司、银行等部门持有,如果美国政府发生国债违约,将同时损害美国债券持有人和海外持有人。所以美国通过自身的债务违约,其实是漫起石头砸自己的脚。”

As the standoff moves into its second week and most of the U.S. government remains closed it is unclear if or how soon a breakthrough might be reached. On Monday, the White House said it wants a big enough increase in the debt ceiling now, so it would not have to be raised again until late next year. But spokesman Jay Carney said the White House is not ruling anything in or out when Congress considers how long to raise the debt limit.

美国的政治僵局已经进入第二个星期,美国政府大部分部门仍然关闭。目前还不清楚是否能够或者需要多久才能取得突破。星期一,白宫表示需要以足够大的幅度提高债务上限,以便到明年晚些时候无需再次提高。但是白宫发言人杰伊·卡尼说,在国会考虑需要多久才能提高借贷上限的时候,白宫不排除任何可能性。

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