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Lex专栏:戴蒙的困境

发布者: sunny214 | 发布时间: 2013-10-15 11:00| 查看数: 806| 评论数: 0|

Shall we call it the bank with the fortress reserves, then? JPMorgan said yesterday that it had amassed $23bn of litigation reserves to guard against an avalanche of legal and regulatory actions. Legal expense was $9.2bn in the third quarter alone. That figure cannot, however, account for the psychological and symbolic impact of the first quarterly loss under Jamie Dimon’s watch.

现在,我们是否应该把摩根大通(JPMorgan)称为拥有“堡垒般”拨备的银行?该行昨日表示,已计提230亿美元诉讼拨备,以应对潮水般的法律和监管行动。该行仅在今年第三季度付出的法律费用就达92亿美元。然而,这个数字抵不上该行首席执行官杰米•戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)任内首个季度亏损带来的心理影响和象征性影响。

The bank chief has been resilient in the face of the London whale scandal last year and the string of legal woes that have followed it. The bank could be faced with an $11bn settlement related to pre-crisis mortgage lending practices, including those of Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual, which it bought in deals encouraged by the US government.

面对去年的“伦敦鲸”(London whale)丑闻以及之后的一系列法律诉讼,戴蒙一直表现得很达观。摩根大通可能要就危机前从事的抵押贷款活动向美国当局支付110亿美元和解金,这些活动包括贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)和华盛顿互惠银行(Washington Mutual)所从事的活动。在美国政府的鼓励下,摩根大通收购了后两家银行。

Mr Dimon has become a symbol of executive arrogance, but retains the support of the board (which he chairs, by the way). Shareholders support him too – the loss left the stock flat yesterday. Until now, Mr Dimon could always point to the fact that the bank remained profitable, even through the financial crisis.

戴蒙已成为高管傲慢姿态的一个象征,但他仍得到摩根大通董事会的支持(顺便说一句,他还担任着该行的董事长)。股东们也支持他——面对昨日发布的季度亏损消息,该行的股票收盘没跌。此前戴蒙还始终可以用盈利说话——摩根大通一直保持盈利,即便在金融危机期间也是如此。

The underlying business results were respectable, in the context of a soft operating environment. As expected, mortgage banking fees and income fell sharply due to the rise in interest rates and fall in refinancing in the US. Fixed-income trading revenues also declined, if less than some had feared, given choppy financial markets. Uncertain economic growth and rates that remain low by historical standards make life difficult for all commercial banks, pressing margins and limiting loan growth.

尽管大的营运环境较为疲软,但摩根大通基础业务的业绩还是很不错的。如预期的那样,由于美国利率上升和再融资减少,银行抵押贷款业务的费用和收入大幅下降。鉴于金融市场动荡起伏,固定收益交易收入也出现下降,尽管下降幅度比某些人此前担心的要小一些。由于经济增长前景不确定、加上从历史标准来看利率仍处于低位,所有商业银行的日子都不好过,它们的利润率受到挤压,贷款增长受到抑制。

JPMorgan is no exception. Nonetheless, the bank said it would have had $6bn in net income excluding the litigation expense and reserve releases.

摩根大通也不例外。尽管如此,该行仍表示,若剔除诉讼费用和拨备的释放,它原本会实现60亿美元的净利润。

Alarmingly, the bank left open the possibility of yet more legal expense, saying litigation costs may continue to be volatile over the coming quarters. JPMorgan has every reason to be conservative now, to avoid nasty surprises later.

令人担忧的是,摩根大通仍有可能面临更多的诉讼费用。该行表示,今后几个季度的诉讼费用仍充满变数。摩根大通现在完全有理由保守行事,以免将来出现令人不快的意外。

If the economy improves and rates rise, bringing the bank’s profits with them, Mr Dimon may live down his first loss quickly. If not, he will find himself one more major scandal away from losing his job.

如果经济改善、利率上升,让摩根大通实现盈利,那么戴蒙很快就会让人们忘记其任内的首次季度亏损。若情况并非如此,那么他会发现,只要再出现一起重大丑闻自己就会被赶下台。


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