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2009年，我与体育经济学家史蒂芬·希曼斯基(Stefan Szymanski)合作出版了一本关于足球和数据的著作，书名是《英格兰为什么总是输》(Why England Lose)。2010年世界杯前，人们不停地问我们：“你们不担心标题出问题吗？如果英格兰赢了怎么办？”我们倒不是很担心，不出意外，英格兰果然输了。但后来我们还是修改了标题，因为事实（令人诧异地）证明，英格兰人不会买一本叫做《英格兰为什么总是输》的书。

In 2009 the sports economist Stefan Szymanski and I published a book about football and data called Why England Lose. Going into the World Cup of 2010, people kept asking us: “Aren’t you worried about your title? What if England win?” We weren’t very worried, and predictably, England lost. Later we changed the title anyway, because it turned out (amazingly) that English people wouldn’t buy a book called Why England Lose.*

但我们的原标题依然贴切。英格兰队将在10月11日和15日的预选赛最后两轮中迎战黑山和波兰，能否晋级明年世界杯正赛尚是未知数。是时候彻底解释一下英格兰为什么总是输的问题了。

Still, our original title remains pertinent. England enter their last qualifying matches against Montenegro and Poland on October 11 and 15 very uncertain to qualify for next year’s World Cup. It’s time to explain, once and for all, why England lose.

首先，英格兰实在不是个特别的国家。历史上看，英格兰球迷和媒体一直期待过高。他们错以为现代足球的鼻祖定能获胜，英格兰球迷的歌曲《足球回家》(Football’s Coming Home)便概括了这一点。

Firstly, England just isn’t a special country. English fans and media historically expected too much. The delusion that the nation that invented modern football is destined to triumph is encapsulated in the England supporters’ song, “Football’s Coming Home”.

其实，英格兰队失利才是意料之中的。从三个因素能大体上判断一支国家队的成绩：人口多寡、开展足球运动的时间长短以及国家富裕程度（富国往往在体育方面表现更佳）。英格兰拥有5300万人口，不算多；历史上，英格兰队参加的比赛数量并不比大多数主要国家多；而且英格兰也不是特别富有。希曼斯基计算出，英格兰应当是跻身世界足球前十的国家——而它通常也是如此。事实上，相对于它掌握的资源，英格兰队的历史成绩甚至略高于理论上的水平。

In fact, we should expect England to lose. Three factors predict much of a national team’s performance: size of population, length of football experience and wealth (rich countries generally do better at sport). England has a modest 53 million inhabitants; its national team has played no more matches in its history than most leading countries; and England isn’t exceptionally rich. Szymanski calculated that England should expect to be about the world’s 10th-best football country – and it usually is. Historically, in fact, England has marginally overachieved relative to its resources.

相信英格兰“昭昭天命”的人们总是喋喋不休地谈论1966年英格兰加冕世界冠军的事迹。但那是在坐拥主场优势的情况下取得的——在国际比赛中，主场之利平均可以多带来三分之二粒进球。

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1966年之后的历任英格兰主帅都被视为败将，这或许意味着人们的期待过高。在2010年英格兰像往常那样辜负期待后，媒体和公众突然变得现实起来。罗伊·霍奇森(Roy Hodgson)去年出任英格兰主教练时，英格兰并未出现自大情绪洋溢的状况，这在印象中还是头一回。当他带队出征2012年欧洲杯(Euro 2012)时，外界没有抱任何期待，而目前的期待值还要更低。

Believers in English manifest destiny always bang on about 1966, when England were world champions. However, that was with home advantage – worth two-thirds of a goal in the average international match.

鉴于英格兰的成绩略高于理论水平，正确的问题应当是：“为何英格兰没有赢得更多比赛？”它如何能像克罗地亚、乌拉圭或葡萄牙那样取得佳绩？足球圈人士的回答多数是错误的。

When all England managers since 1966 are considered failures, perhaps expectations are overblown. After England’s ritual disappointment in 2010, the media and public suddenly acquired realism. Last year, Roy Hodgson became England’s first manager in memory whose appointment wasn’t greeted with hubris. Expectations were zero when his team travelled to Euro 2012, and lower today.

最新的共识是，英格兰的问题在于本土赛事的外籍球员过多。“上周末英超联赛的首发球员中只有65名英格兰人，”英足总(FA)主席格雷格·戴克(Greg Dyke)曾在9月份抱怨道，“我们的人才库本就很小，现在更是越来越校”不少人赞成限制外籍球员流入，为更多的英格兰球员留出机会。

Since England overachieve slightly, the correct question is: “Why don’t England win even more?” How could they overachieve massively like Croatia, Uruguay or Portugal? The answers from people in football are mostly wrong.

但英格兰的问题并不是英超的英格兰球员太少。恰恰相反：英格兰球员太多了。如果英格兰最优秀的俱乐部派更少的英格兰球员出场，英格兰队的战绩将进一步提升。

A new consensus says that England’s problem is too many foreign players in English football. “Last weekend only 65 English players started in the Premier League,” Greg Dyke, the Football Association’s chairman, grumbled in September. “We already have a very small talent pool and it’s getting smaller.” Many people favour limits on foreign imports, to let in more English players.

戴克说“只有”65名英格兰球员在英超中首发。但其实65名已经是个大数目了，在世界上争夺最为激烈的英超联赛中，英格兰球员的数量超过其他任何国家。英格兰人积累了丰富的顶级俱乐部比赛经验。克罗地亚、乌拉圭和葡萄牙做梦都希望它们能有65名球员在英超联赛中首发。

However, England’s problem isn’t that there are too few Englishmen in the Premier League. On the contrary: there are too many. England would do better if the country’s best clubs fielded even fewer English players.

与强手如林的外籍球员同场竞技，可能促进了英格兰国脚的水平提高。事实上，自从1996年外籍球员大量涌入以来，英格兰队的胜率有所上升。此外，自1998年以来，英格兰队每届世界杯均至少打入16强，而在那之前它常常无法晋级正赛。

Dyke argues that “only” 65 Englishmen start in the Premier League. But in fact 65 is a huge number, more than any other nationality in the world’s toughest league. Englishmen get ample experience of top-class club football. Croatia, Uruguay and Portugal dream of having 65 starters in the Premier League.

真正的问题是，英格兰球员可能参加了太多的顶尖俱乐部比赛。法比奥·卡佩罗(Fabio Capello)担任英格兰主帅一直到2012年，他带队赢下了三分之二的比赛，是队史最佳成绩。他有力地解释了英格兰队为何在夏季赛事中表现欠佳：“在参赛的国家队中，他们是最疲惫的，因为他们的联赛没有冬歇期。”卡佩罗说，如果不给汽车加油，汽油可能半途就耗尽了。

Playing among excellent foreigners has probably helped English internationals improve. Indeed, England’s win percentage has risen since the foreign influx took off in 1996. Moreover, England have reached at least the last 16 of every World Cup since 1998, whereas previously they often didn’t qualify.

英格兰最优秀的球员韦恩·鲁尼(Wayne Rooney)便是如此，他带伤出战了两届世界杯。也正因此，英格兰队在大型赛事中的进球多在上半场攻入（与多数球队不同）：1998年世界杯以来，他们的43个进球中有27个发生在上半常到了下半场，他们就“没油”了。英格兰应当考虑将球员从耗费精力的英超联赛转移到更加轻松的克罗地亚或乌拉圭联赛。

In fact, England’s players now probably play too much top-class club football. Fabio Capello – who, as England’s manager until 2012, won two-thirds of his matches (the best run in the team’s history) – explains convincingly why England underperform in summer tournaments: “They’re the least fresh of any of the competing national sides, because their league doesn’t have a break.” If you don’t refuel your car, says Capello, you can end up running on empty.

此外，英格兰人可以偷师国外的理念。或许是身处岛屿的缘故，他们不太懂得如何踢球。英格兰的孩子学习的是错误的理念。英格兰的青训学院资金充足，比西班牙或巴西等地的青训学院家底殷实。但英格兰的青训教练过于重视体格和意志力，但其实传球才是最重要的。巴塞罗那的一位青训教练告诉我：“球员身材高矮对我们来说不重要。”西班牙借鉴并发扬荷兰的“全攻全守”，终成世界冠军。德国和比利时通过偷师欧洲各地的成功做法，逆转了近年来的衰退。英格兰人应当尝试借鉴，而不是幻想孤立。

That happened to Wayne Rooney, England’s best player, who played two World Cups half-fit. It also explains why England, unlike most teams, score the bulk of their goals in major tournaments before halftime: 27 of 43 goals since the 1998 World Cup. After halftime, they are running on empty. England should consider shipping players from the exhausting Premier League to the more laid-back Croatian or Uruguayan leagues.

正如英国《金融时报》的嘉南·加内什(Janan Ganesh)所提到的那样，英国的网球、自行车和板球运动都是通过偷师外国理念而取得成功。有朝一日，英格兰足球也将效仿这种做法。但即便是那样，我们也别指望能赢得世界杯。

Alternatively, the English could steal foreign ideas. Probably because they live on an island, they don’t quite understand how to play football. English kids learn the wrong things. Youth academies here have enough money; more than, say, Spanish or Brazilian academies. But English youth coaching overvalues size and willpower, whereas what matters most is passing. As a youth coach at Barcelona told me, “If he’s small or if he’s tall, for us that is not important.” Spain became world champions by borrowing and updating Dutch “total football”. Germany and Belgium bucked recent declines by stealing best practices from around Europe. The English should try it, instead of fantasising about isolationism.