Change — fundamental change — can be difficult to discern in Asia. Too often it is measured by rapidly changing skylines and cityscapes; change as reflected by new buildings, architectural marvels and ambitious public works projects. In this way, every trip to China is a visit to a new country, with cities sprouting from rural landscapes virtually overnight. These cement and steel structures reflect new trends in Asia’s inexorable urbanisation but they are only one manifestation of change.

人们很难察觉到亚洲正在发生变化，而且是那种根本性的变化。有太多的时候，人们对于变化的衡量标准是快速变幻的天际线和城市景象；变化就体现在新楼房、建筑奇迹和雄心勃勃的公共工程项目上。从这种角度来说，每一次访问中国时，你看到的都是一个崭新的国家——在这里，几乎一夜之间，农村景象不见了，城市拔地而起。这些钢筋水泥建筑物反映了亚洲无法阻挡的城市化新趋势，但它们只是变化的一个表象。

Sometimes profound change can take place with little by way of physical structures or outward manifestations. It is measured in evolving mindsets.

有时，深刻的变化可能不会通过实体结构或外部表象展现出来。它表现在不断变化的思维上。

Take Japan. A drama is playing out that promises to alter the fundamentals that have guided the country’s policies at home and approach to the world for generations. It manifests itself in a very different way from those changes taking place elsewhere in Asia. Look at the renowned hotel near the Ginza district that has been frequented by western visitors for decades. In one of the long passageways, a small area of carpet was worn through in the early 1990s, and was replaced with a bright green patch. It is still there, strikingly out of place and crying out for renovation, 20 years on.

以日本为例。一场大戏正在上演，它有望改变几代人以来一直统领日本国内政策及对外关系的基本原则。其表现形式与亚洲其他地区截然不同。看看东京银座地区附近那些知名酒店吧，几十年来，西方游客经常光顾于此。在其中一条长长的走廊上，有一小块地毯在上世纪90年代初就被磨破了，后来打上了一块翠绿色的补丁。20年过去了，补丁还在那里，特别的不协调，亟待翻新。

The change in Japan is reflected more in public attitudes than anything else. Almost overnight, polls reflect dynamic new trends: rising suspicion and even hostility towards China; growing exasperation with South Korea; greater interest in developing more robust defense capabilities; and more ambivalence about the experience and legacy of the second world war in Japan.

日本的变化最主要体现在公众态度上。民调结果表明，日本几乎在一夜之间出现了很强的新趋势：对于中国的疑虑甚至敌意日益加深；与韩国关系日益紧张；对发展强大国防实力的兴趣增强；对于二战中的日本历史以及遗留问题的态度更加矛盾。

The country’s history has been marked by long (sometimes exacerbating) periods of constancy, abbreviated by infrequent episodes of profound change. After recent “lost decades”, we it is likely we are entering one of the latter periods. The fundamental change in attitudes and the attendant politics is best exemplified by the landslide election and return to power last year of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of the Liberal Democrats, after a brief spell out of office for the party. He and his senior advisers have implemented a bold set of macroeconomic and (it is hoped) structural reforms designed to jolt the nation out of its generation-long lethargy. The short-term improvements in exports and the stock market are encouraging.

日本的历史由多个很长的稳定（有时日趋稳定）时期构成，遇到偶发的深刻变革时，每个稳定时期才会被缩短。在最近“失去的几十年”之后，我们可能正进入一个深刻变革时期。在短暂离开政坛后，属于自民党(Liberal Democrat)的安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)去年在选举中获得压倒性胜利，再次担任日本首相。这最有力地证明，公众态度以及随之而来的政治形势发生根本性变化的最好例证。安倍晋三和他的高级顾问实施了一系列大胆的宏观经济政策和（人们盼望的）结构性改革，旨在令日本摆脱长达一代人之久的萎靡。出口和股市的短期回暖鼓舞人心。

Yet Mr Abe’s agenda extends well beyond economic reform. He came to power with a clear and unambiguous determination to change Japan’s international role. The country sees its neighborhood as increasingly unpredictable, even dangerous, with provocations from North Korea and rising regional ambitions in China. Japan has not fired a shot in anger in about seven decades, but Tokyo is gradually shedding the historic inhibitions that have kept it from playing a role in any defence or security effort beyond strict interpretations of self-defence.

然而，安倍晋三的议程远远超越经济改革。他带着明确且毫不含糊的决心上台，试图改变日本在国际舞台上的地位。日本认为其邻国越来越不可预测，甚至变得危险，朝鲜不时发出挑衅，中国的地区抱负也日益高涨。日本隐忍了70年左右，但现在日本正逐渐抛开历史禁锢。由于这些禁锢的存在，除严格意义的自卫以外，日本无法在任何国防或安全行动中发挥作用。

While Mr Abe’s motivations are a direct result of 2013 conditions on the ground in Asia (and in the surrounding seas), some of the rhetoric from Tokyo, tinged with suggestions of historical revisionism, have led some in the region (read China and Korea) to interpret Japanese intentions through the lens of 1937 and the rise of Japanese militarism. While pacifism has deep roots in Japanese society, some parts of the elite feel they do not get enough respect. And they want it.

尽管安倍晋三的动机直接源于2013年亚洲（以及周围海域）的现实局势，但来自日本政府的一些言论（略带有历史修正主义），让该地区（例如中国和韩国）的一些人透过1937年历史以及日本军国主义崛起的视角来解读日本当前的意图。尽管反战主义在日本社会有着很深的根基，但日本部分精英人士认为，他们没有得到足够的尊重。他们希望得到这些。

So Japan is changing, and rapidly. The US has essentially two courses of action it can take. It can stand back and let the country change on its own, with little regard for the unique historical role it has played in ensuring Japan’s security. Or it can stay close to Tokyo, providing counsel on how to chart an uncertain course towards the status of what some Japanese strategists longingly describe as a “normal” country. The latter path offers risks and uncertainty, but it is also the best way to help preserve one of the most important bilateral relationships in Asia, the one on which the region’s economic miracle has been built.

因此，日本正在发生变化，而且正在迅速发生变化。美国大体可以采取两种行动思路。美国可以退后，让日本不受外力地发生改变，毫不理会美国在确保日本安全方面所发挥的独特的历史作用。或者，美国可以与日本拉近距离，向其提供建议，帮其在一条通往“正常”国家地位的不确定道路上绘制好路标。一些日本战略家对所谓“正常”国家地位渴望已久了。后一种思路存在风险和不确定性，但它也是帮助维护亚洲最重要双边关系之一的最佳方法，该地区的经济奇迹一直基于这种双边关系。

It is better for Japan to change and evolve in partnership with the US than to strike out in Asia alone.

对日本来说，与在亚洲单打独斗相比，与美国合作实现变革和发展是更可取的。

Kurt Campbell is chairman and chief executive of The Asia Group and on the board of the Center for a New American Security. From 2009-13 he served as the assistant US secretary of state for east Asian and Pacific affairs

注：本文作者是亚洲集团(Asia Group)董事长兼首席执行官，是新美国安全中心(Center for a New American Security)董事会成员。2009年至2013年，他曾担任美国东亚和太平洋事务助理国务卿。