How many babies will be born in China now that the government has relaxed its one-child policy?
中国政府放宽了独生子女政策，中国将有多少孩子出生？
To answer the question, it helps to know how many are born today, but even that isn't easy to answer. The United Nations, the U.S. Census Bureau's international division and Deutsche Bank all give different projections for China's total fertility rate, with a difference of 14% between the low and high end.
要回答这个问题，就有必要了解当前的出生人数，但即便是后一个问题也很难回答。联合国、美国人口普查局(Census Bureau)国际部和德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)就中国的总体生育率给出了不同的预计，最低和最高的预计值相差14%。
That's just one of many reasons it's hard to pinpoint the impact of Chinese people getting more reproductive freedom. Other challenges include assessing how the new policy will interact with social trends, such as people delaying marriage and the rising cost of raising children.
要精确估量中国人获得更大生育自由的影响难度很大，其中有多种原因，上述情况只是原因之一。其他的挑战包括评估新政策将如何与人们推迟结婚以及养育孩子成本升高等社会趋势产生相互作用。
Demographers and analysts do agree on a couple of points, though: The increase in births will be small compared with China's large and aging population of roughly 1.35 billion, and the labor force won't grow as a result for at least two decades.
不过，人口学家和分析师也在一些观点上达成了一致：相比中国规模庞大、日渐老龄化的13.5亿人口，出生人数的增长将会很小，劳动力至少在20年内不会因此而增加。
'We may see a few more million babies born in the coming years than otherwise, but it will not answer China's deeper demographic challenge: that it is getting old before it gets rich,' said John D. Minnich, East Asia Analyst for Stratfor Global Intelligence, an Austin, Texas, think tank.
位于德克萨斯州奥斯汀的智库Stratfor Global Intelligence的东亚分析师明尼克(John D. Minnich)说，相比不放松独生子女政策的情况，我们可能看到未来几年出生的婴儿数量增加数百万，但这无法解决中国更深层次的人口挑战：还没有富裕起来就已经步入老龄化。
Excited couples could spark an initial baby miniboom, said Yong Cai, a fellow at the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. 'If they all do it together next year, we could see a major rise. It won't last.'
北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校(University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill)卡罗来纳人口中心(Carolina Population Center)的研究人员蔡永（音）说，兴奋不已的夫妇可能在一开始造成短暂的婴儿潮。如果他们都赶在明年生孩子，出生人数将会大大上升。但这种情况不会持久。
The greatest initial impact won't be demographic or economic, Prof. Cai said. 'The long-term effect will be, relatively speaking, mild. Sociologically, politically, psychologically, it is very important. It sends a good signal to the Chinese people: You have more freedom.'
蔡永说，初期阶段的最大影响不会是人口或经济方面的。相对而言，长期影响会较为温和。从社会学、政治学、心理学上说，这个措施非常重要。它向中国民众发出了一个很好的信号：你拥有更大的自由。
The latest national relaxation of the rules -- allowing any couple in which one parent is an only child to have two children -- follows similar localized exemptions, especially in rural areas. The inconsistencies mean not all couples meet the criteria, either because they already have two children or because neither is an only child.
在全国范围内放松独生子女政策（允许一方为独生子女的夫妇生育两个孩子）的最新措施之前已经有类似的小范围豁免政策，尤其是在农村地区。这种说法意味着并非所有的夫妇都符合标准，要么因为他们已经有了两个孩子，要么是双方都不是独生子女。
'It's touted as a one-child policy,' said Carl Haub, senior demographer at the Population Reference Bureau, a Washington, D.C., think tank. 'But because of all the exceptions, it's really a 1.5-child policy.'
华盛顿智库美国人口咨询局(Population Reference Bureau)的资深人口学家豪伯(Carl Haub)说，虽然号称是独生子女政策，但由于存在种种例外情况，它其实是1.5个孩子政策。
Or 1.45, or 1.66. Those are the low and high end of the range for the three estimates of China's current total fertility rate -- an estimate of how many children the average woman has in her lifetime. One reason the numbers vary so much is that demographers doubt China's official birth numbers, because some parents hide their first children, said Richard Jackson, director of the Global Aging Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. All the numbers are below the long-term replacement fertility rate of roughly 2.1; China's population has kept increasing, at slower rates, because of expanding life expectancy and the lag in effect of low fertility.
这个数字也可以是1.45或1.66。这是对中国当前总生育率的三个估计中的最高和最低值。总生育率是估计平均每名妇女一生中生育的孩子数量。华盛顿的战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)全球老龄化研究机构(Global Aging Initiative)主任理查德・杰克逊(Richard Jackson)说，上述数字存在这么大差别的一个原因是，人口学家怀疑中国官方出生数字，因为一些父母会隐匿第一个孩子。所有这些数字都低于大约2.1的长期替代生育率；由于寿命延长，加上低生育率的影响有滞后性，中国人口仍在继续增长，不过增速减缓。
Limits on childbirth have skewed society in other ways. Some parents selectively aborted female fetuses, leaving China with a current male-to-female birth ratio of between 1.13 and 1.17, depending on the source, compared to a world-wide ratio of 1.05 to 1.08. Some demographers expressed hope that the option to have a second child would reduce sex-selective abortions, though others pointed out that some studies have found parents of a daughter have even more extreme male-to-female ratios for their second child.
对生育的限制也在其他方面给社会造成扭曲。一些父母选择性地流产女性胎儿，令中国当前的男女出生性别比达到1.13至1.17（依数据来源而异），而全世界的男女出生性别比为1.05至1.08。一些人口学家希望，可以生育第二个孩子将减少性别选择流产现象，但也有人指出，一些研究显示，有一个女儿的父母生育第二个孩子的男女性别比更为极端。
Then again, all these demographic data reflect the intersection of law, economics, individual decisions and societal trends. One such trend, Mr. Minnich said, is that boys aren't as prized as they used to be. 'Having a son and paying for all the attendant costs is often much more of a burden for parents than a boon' in cities, Mr. Minnich said.
此外，所有这些人口数据都反映出法律、经济、个人决定和社会趋势的交互影响。明尼克说，一个社会趋势是，男孩不像以前那样被看重。他说，在城市里，生育儿子并支付随之而来的种种成本对于父母而言更多地是一种负担，而不是什么大好事。
The new children, whatever their gender, won't join the workforce for a couple of decades, and meanwhile some of their parents might work less. Perhaps having siblings will make the next generation more productive and innovative. That was the suggestion of a study of 421 people published earlier this year in the journal Science that found some children born under the one-child policy grew up to be 'Little Emperors,' as the authors called them: more risk-averse, less competitive, among other traits.
无论是什么性别，新出生的孩子都还要20年左右才能加入劳动力大军，与此同时，他们的父母中有一部分人可能减少工作。或许有兄弟姐妹会让下一代更有效率，也更具创新精神。《科学》(Science)杂志今年早些时候发表的一篇论文对421人进行了研究，其中发现，一些独生子女长成了“小皇帝”，他们更不愿意承担风险、竞争力较差，还有其他一些特点。
Some researchers questioned the findings, and Mr. Minnich said the education system, not the one-child policy, deserves most of the blame for suppressing self-expression.
一些研究人员质疑上述结果，明尼克说，压抑自我表现的罪魁祸首是教育体制，而不是独生子女政策。
Xiaobo Zhang, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, a Washington think tank, was more hopeful about a two-child policy. He said the policy change might even boost the national soccer team. 'When there is only one child,' he said, 'parents are even afraid of allowing their only child to participate in sports.'
华盛顿智库国际食品政策研究所(International Food Policy Research Institute)高级研究员张小波对于二胎政策满怀希望。他说，这一政策变化甚至有可能提振中国足球队。他说，只要一个孩子的话，父母连让唯一的孩子参加体育活动都会担心。
|
|
