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日本GDP给“安倍经济学”泼冷水

发布者: sunny214 | 发布时间: 2014-2-20 13:00| 查看数: 806| 评论数: 0|

Japan’s economy failed to regain momentum in the last three months of 2013 as growth reached just a third of the level economists had forecast, raising questions about the durability of the “Abenomics” recovery.2013年第四季度,日本经济未能重拾动能,经济增速仅达到经济学家此前预测的三分之一,这令外界对“安倍经济学”(Abenomics)式复苏的持久性产生疑问。
Gross domestic product expanded at an annualised rate of 1 per cent in the quarter, the Cabinet Office said in a preliminary estimate yesterday. External trade was the weak point: a softer yen has done little to spur more exports even as it has sharply increased the cost of imported energy, helping turn Japan’s once vaunted trade surpluses into large and worsening deficits.日本内阁府(Cabinet Office)昨日公布的初步估值数据显示,去年第四季度,按年率计算,日本国内生产总值(GDP)增长1%。对外贸易是一个弱项:日元疲软几乎没有带来更多出口,同时却大幅提高了进口能源价格,这使得日本一度炫耀的贸易顺差转变成日益扩大的巨额逆差。
With trade no longer the engine of growth it was, the domestic spending that is supporting the economy will soon face a headwind of its own, with an increase in Japan’s national sales tax in April likely to hurt consumption. “Growth in October-December was totally dependent on domestic demand,” said Takuji Aida, an economist at Société Générale.随着贸易不再像过去那样充当增长的引擎,作为经济支柱的国内消费也将很快遭遇障碍,今年4月日本国内消费税上调可能会损及消费。法国兴业银行(Société Générale)经济学家Takuji Aida表示:“去年10-12月的经济增长完全依赖内需。”
The world’s third-largest economy had been expected to shake off a midyear slowdown and expand at a rate of 3 per cent, putting it close to the heady pace it achieved in the first half of 2013 after Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, swept to office on a pledge to stimulate growth.
Instead, yesterday’s data showed the more tentative growth trend was unchanged from the July-September quarter.经济学家原本预计,这个全球第三大经济体将摆脱去年年中的放缓趋势,增长3%,接近去年上半年在日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)上台时承诺刺激经济增长后实现的较快增长水平。
Consumers are expected to continue supporting growth in the current quarter, before the 3 percentage point tax rise takes effect. The looming increase, the first since 1997, is encouraging some to make big purchases and creating a temporary extra burst of economic activity, but a slowdown is predicted after April’s change.而昨日的数据显示,更为不确定的经济增长趋势较去年7-9月当季毫无变化。
How big that slowdown turns out to be, and how quickly the economy can recover, will be crucial to the future of Abenomics, say economists.在消费税上调3个百分点的政策实施之前,预计消费者将继续为当前季度的经济增长提供支持。消费税即将上调(这是自1997年以来的首次)正鼓励一些消费者购买大宗商品,给经济活动带来暂时的额外刺激,但预计在4月消费税上调后,购买活动将放缓。
经济学家表示,消费的放缓幅度以及经济复苏速度对于“安倍经济学”的未来将至关重要。

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