Efforts by the major central banks to spur an economic recovery by providing guidance on what will happen to interest rates could endanger the global financial system, top economists at the Bank for International Settlements have warned.

国际清算银行(BIS)顶级经济学家们警告，全球各大央行为推动经济复苏而作出的提供利率指引之举，可能危及全球金融体系。

Investors are being encouraged to load up on risk because they believe that forward guidance will warn them about impending rises in interest rates, according to research published by the institution known as the central bankers’ bank. It could also result in rates remaining too low for too long because central banks fear the reaction of markets to any rate rise, fuelling riskier behaviour.

有“央行的银行”之称的该机构所发表的研究报告显示，投资者正被鼓励承担风险，因为他们相信前瞻性指引会在利率即将上升的时候警告他们。提供指引也可能导致利率在过长时期维持在过低水平，原因是各国央行担心利率上调所引起的市场反应，从而助长风险较高的行为。

The guidance, which all four of the world’s leading central banks have undertaken, could raise the threat of “an unhealthy accumulation of financial imbalances”, economists Andrew Filardo, who heads the BIS’ monetary policy unit, and Boris Hofmann argue. It could also cause panic if investors believe that the guidance had changed unexpectedly.

全球四家领先央行均提供利率指引。安德鲁•菲拉尔多（Andrew Filardo，国际清算银行的货币政策部门领导）和鲍里斯•霍夫曼(Boris Hofmann)两名经济学家认为，这种做法会加大“金融失衡的不健康积累”这个威胁。如果投资者相信利率指引出现意料之外的变化，它还可能引起恐慌。

The findings raise further questions over the Bank of England’s use of forward guidance.

这份研究结果对英格兰央行(Bank of England)的前瞻性指引提出进一步质疑。

The US Federal Reserve first used guidance on interest rates in 2008, while the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank followed suit in 2010 and mid-2013 respectively.

美联储(Federal Reserve)第一次采用利率指引是在2008年，日本央行(Bank of Japan)和欧洲央行(European Central Bank)在2010年和2013年年中先后效仿。

BIS economists said the perception that the Fed had unexpectedly changed its guidance in mid-2013 was to blame for the turmoil in emerging markets that followed comments from Ben Bernanke, then the central bank’s chairman, that the $85bn monthly asset purchases programme could be reduced.

国际清算银行的经济学家们表示，美联储在2013年年中出人意料地改变指引——时任美联储主席的本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)提议缩减每月850亿美元的资产购买——导致新兴市场出现震荡。

If markets became focused on certain aspects of guidance, a broader interpretation or suggestion of a policy change could lead to panic, the economists said.

这些经济学家们表示，如果市场专注于指引的某些方面，更宽泛的解读或者有关政策变化的暗示可能引发恐慌。