China’s new aircraft carrier may have pride of place in the country’s growing fleet but it is actually a refitted hull that once belonged to Ukraine. Before he became the first foreigner to board the Liaoning, US defence secretary Chuck Hagel used a trip to Asia this week to draw a much broader connection between Crimea and China’s maritime ambitions.

中国首艘航空母舰辽宁号也许是其日益强大舰队的骄傲，但辽宁号实际上是从乌克兰以前一艘航母外壳上改建的。在作为首先登上辽宁号的外国人之前，美国国防部长查克•哈格尔(Chuck Hagel)上周借亚洲之行，从一个更大的范围，把克里米亚与中国的海洋雄心联系在一起。

“You cannot go around and redefine boundaries, violate territorial integrity and sovereignty of nations by force, coercion and intimidation – whether it’s in small islands in the Pacific, or large nations in Europe,” he told an audience in Tokyo. “So I want to talk to our Chinese friends about this.”

哈格尔在东京对台下听众表示：“你不能随便在某个地方重新划定边界，用武力、胁迫和恐吓手段侵犯其他国家的领土完整和主权——无论是太平洋的小岛还是欧洲的大国。因此我希望与我们的中国朋友谈一谈这个问题。”

The implications of the Ukraine crisis will be felt well beyond Europe. One of the most important side-effects will be the lessons China draws, and whether it concludes that the status quo in Asia can be brushed aside without consequence.

乌克兰危机影响的远不只是欧洲国家。最重要的副作用之一将是中国得出的结论，以及它是否会认为，可以打破亚洲现状而不用承担任何后果。

Asia combines the most sophisticated manufacturing networks of the 21st century global economy with strong hints of the late 19th century: surging nationalism, growing navies and toxic territorial disputes. Across the region, there is concern Russia’s latest exercise in redrawing borders will embolden China to push its own island claims. Mr Hagel has spent his week trying to address those fears.

亚洲既有21世纪全球经济最复杂的制造业网络，又带有19世纪末期的鲜明迹象：民族主义情绪高涨、海军实力不断增强以及持续发酵的领土纠纷。亚洲各国担心，俄罗斯重新划定边界的最新行为，将鼓励中国推动自己的岛屿主张。哈格尔在上周的亚洲之旅中试图应对这些担忧。

On one level, it might seem a stretch to draw too close a link between Ukraine and Asia’s maritime disputes. Crimea presented a unique set of circumstances for an opportunistic leader to exploit. By virtue of its naval base in Sevastopol, Russia already had forces pre-positioned in Crimea. President Vladimir Putin was helped by political instability in Kiev and genuine popular support in Crimea.

从某种层面上来说，将乌克兰与亚洲海洋纠纷过于密切地联系在一起似乎有些牵强。克里米亚为一个机会主义的领导人提供了一套可资利用的独特条件。凭借塞瓦斯托波尔(Sevastopol)的海军基地，俄罗斯早已在克里米亚驻军。基辅的政治动荡和克里米亚民众真心实意的支持，也帮助了俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)。

Most of all, the basic geography of the region meant that the US and Europeans had no realistic military option when Russia made its move on Crimea. However, if China were to try to take the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea, it would meet a stiff response from Japan, and probably the US. The US has no alliance with Ukraine – but it does with Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.

最重要的是，该地区的基本地理状况意味着，当俄罗斯出兵克里米亚时，美国和欧洲没有现实的军事选择。然而，如果中国试图在东中国海夺取尖阁诸岛(Senkaku Islands)——中国称为钓鱼岛及其附属岛屿，它将面对日本、很可能还有美国的强硬回应。美国没有与乌克兰结盟，但它与日本、韩国和菲律宾结盟。

Yet, in the eyes of many of its neighbours, China has for a number of years been conducting mini land-grabs in the region’s seas. In 2012, Chinese ships in effect assumed control of Scarborough Shoal, a chain of reefs and rocks in the South China Sea, after a confrontation with the Philippines. In recent weeks, Chinese ships have also been trying to edge the Philippines out of another area called Second Thomas Shoal.

但在中国诸多邻国看来，中国多年来一直在蚕食亚太海域上的岛屿。2012年，在与菲律宾对峙后，中国舰船事实上控制了南中国海的斯卡伯勒浅滩（Scarborough Shoal，中国称其为黄岩岛——译者注）。最近几周，中国舰队还试图将菲律宾人赶离第二托马斯礁（Second Thomas Shoal，中国称其为仁爱礁——译者注）。

In both Asia and Europe the US faces the same dilemma: the fact that it ultimately cares less about the outcome than either Russia or China, for whom the stakes are higher.

无论是在亚洲还是在欧洲，美国都面临同样的难题：最终而言，美国对结局的关心比不上俄罗斯或中国，因为俄中有更大的利害关系。

With all this in mind, there are several broad lessons from Ukraine for the US in Asia. The first is to stay the course in the region. With some justice, critics accuse the administration of enabling Mr Putin by neglecting Europe. But the Ukraine crisis actually makes the case for the Asia “pivot” – the idea that deterrence can best be achieved by maintaining a strong military presence, boosting alliances and deepening economic links with Asia, while also trying to engage China.

考虑到这一切，乌克兰局势为美国的亚太战略带来几个普遍适用的教训。第一个是美国应坚持其亚太战略。批评者指责奥巴马政府忽视欧洲，让普京有机可乘，这不无道理。但乌克兰危机实际上证明美国重返亚洲没错——威慑的最佳方式是保持强大的军事存在，加强与盟友的关系，并深化与亚洲的经济联系，同时也努力与中国接触。

Yet the Crimea crisis also shows the importance of picking the right battles. It is one thing to defend traditional allies. But just as the west should not have been so surprised that Russia was terrified of losing influence in Ukraine, the US will need to tread carefully as its boosts ties with countries like Vietnam if it wants to avoid provoking China.

然而，克里米亚危机也表明了“挑选合适战斗”的重要性。捍卫传统盟友是一回事。但是，正如西方不应对俄罗斯害怕在乌克兰失去影响力感到意外一样，美国如果希望避免刺激中国，就需要在加强与越南等国的关系时谨慎行事。

Ultimately, the crisis has been a wake-up call to the harsher new realities of international politics. John Kerry, the US secretary of state, is fond of slamming Russia’s “19th-century behaviour” in Ukraine. Yet in a world of aspiring great powers like China and frustrated “regional powers”, as Barack Obama, the US president, refers to Russia, economic ties and international law may not be enough to prevent destabilising revisionism. Globalisation has not restrained Russia.

归根结底，克里米亚危机敲响了警钟，让世人对国际政治领域更为严峻的新现实有清醒的认识。美国国务卿约翰•克里(John Kerry)喜欢将俄罗斯在乌克兰的行动指责为“19世纪的行为”。然而，面对踌躇满志的新兴大国（如中国）和耿耿于怀的“地区大国”（美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)称俄罗斯为“地区大国”），经贸纽带和国际法可能不足以阻止破坏稳定的修正主义。全球化没有约束住俄罗斯。