Before smoked salmon sandwiches and trays of salmon sushi on supermarket shelves, there was a time when the fish was an expensive treat rather than casual takeaway.

在烟熏三文鱼三明治和一盒盒的三文鱼寿司出现在超市货架上之前，三文鱼一度曾是一种昂贵的待客之物，而不是可随意取走的外卖食品。

Salmon farming changed that. But, after a sharp rise in prices thanks to growing global demand, industry executives are warning that the fish could soon lose its mass market status.

三文鱼养殖改变了这点。但由于全球需求日益升温，三文鱼的价格出现大幅上涨，行业高管警告称，三文鱼可能将很快不再是一种面向大众市场的食品。

“In the past, salmon was a luxury product. If prices rise higher, it could again be reduced to something only for people with money,” says Philippe Barbe, chief executive of Ocean Direct, a French salmon distributor.

法国三文鱼分销商Ocean Direct首席执行官菲利普•芭尔贝(Philippe Barbe)表示：“过去，三文鱼是一种奢侈品。如果价格上涨，它可能会再次变成有钱人的专属。”

Salmon prices leapt above NKr50 ($8.50) a kilogram to a record high last year on the back of strong demand in the US and emerging markets such as Brazil. And many of the fish producers and investors gathered in Brussels this week for the annual Seafood Expo are hoping for another good year.

由于美国以及巴西等新兴市场需求强劲，去年，三文鱼每公斤价格一跃涨至50挪威克郎（合8.50美元）以上，达到创纪录高点。水产商和投资者不久前齐聚布鲁塞尔，参加一年一度的水产展览会(Seafood Expo)。参展者大多预计将迎来又一个好年头。

Sushi’s growing popularity and the increasing awareness of salmon as a good source of omega 3 fatty acids are behind the boost to demand in both developed and emerging markets.

寿司越来越受欢迎，同时三文鱼是Ω-3不饱和脂肪酸的一个良好来源这一点得到越来越广泛的认识，这两点因素促使发达国家和新兴市场的需求提升。

“There has been a shift on the demand side,” says Klaus Hatlebrekke, chief operating officer at Norway Royal Salmon, a fish farming group.

水产养殖公司挪威皇家三文鱼(Norway Royal Salmon)首席运营官克劳斯•哈特勒布莱克(Klaus Hatlebrekke)表示：“需求方面发生了变化。”

Demand for the fish in 2012-13, which grew about 6 to 7 per cent a year, has been much stronger than historical trends, he says. The sharp rise in prices has meant that the value of Norwegian salmon exports in 2013 rose 35 per cent from a year before.

他表示，2012年至2013年，三文鱼需求增速一直远远超过历史趋势值，达到每年约6%至7%。三文鱼价格大幅上涨意味着，挪威2013年的三文鱼出口额同比增长35%。

Salmon producers have also reported a jump in profits. Earnings at Oslo-based Marine Harvest, the largest farmed salmon grower with operations in Norway, Chile and Scotland among other locations, rose sixfold in 2013, while Norway Royal Salmon reported the best results in its 21-year history.

三文鱼养殖商的利润也出现跳涨。2013年，世界最大三文鱼养殖商、总部位于奥斯陆的Marine Harvest收益增长5倍，同时挪威皇家三文鱼也公布了该公司21年历史上的最佳业绩。 Marine Harvest在挪威、智利和苏格兰等地设有机构。

There could be further support on the supply side. Salmon farming faces structural challenges that are limiting supply growth, according to Georg Liasjø, analyst at ABG Sundal Collier, an investment bank based in Oslo.

供应方面可能会令三文鱼价格获得更多支撑。总部位于奥斯陆的投行ABG Sundal Collier的分析师耶奥格•利亚斯耶(Georg Liasjø)表示，三文鱼养殖面临着结构性挑战，这正限制着供应的增长。

In Norway, the largest producer of farmed salmon, production is restricted by the government, which issues licences, while the risk of disease had put a limit on how much fish can be grown in existing farms, he told an audience in Brussels this week.

不久前他在布鲁塞尔对一群听众表示，在养殖三文鱼最大出产国挪威，三文鱼产量受到发放牌照的政府的限制，而鱼病风险限制了现有养殖场可养殖的三文鱼数量。

Higher prices for fish feed – a result of more farming and limited sources of anchovies because of climate change – and other raw materials are also pushing up the cost of production.

鱼饲料以及其他原材料价格上涨也推升了养殖成本。鱼饲料价格上涨的原因是养殖数量扩大，同时由于气候变化，鳀鱼来源有限。

Prices in 2013 were also affected by an important cyclical factor – sea temperatures. Norway suffered colder than usual seawater last year, inhibiting fish growth.

2013年的三文鱼价格还受到一个重要周期性因素的影响——海水温度。挪威去年的海水温度比通常情况偏低，这限制了三文鱼的生长。

Fish growers and analysts expect prices to stay high. Compared with a 2013 average of NKr39 per kg, the highest since the 1980s, the price for 2014 is expected to be about NKr40, while for 2015 forecasts range from about NKr38 to NKr40.

鱼类养殖者以及分析人士预测，三文鱼价格将保持高企。与2013年每公斤39挪威克郎的均价（为上世纪80年代以来最高）相比，预计2014年三文鱼价格将保持在40挪威克郎左右，2015年的预测值介于约38挪威克郎至40挪威克郎。

“In the long run, physical and regulatory limits on supply growth coupled with a booming demand from emerging markets across the globe should lead to high salmon prices continuing,” says the Food and Agriculture Organization, based in Rome.

总部位于罗马的联合国粮食及农业组织(Food and Agriculture Organization)表示：“长期而言，供应增长受到的客观条件限制以及监管限制，再加上全球新兴市场的需求膨胀，应会导致三文鱼价格持续高企。”

Others caution against too much optimism. Børge Prytz Larsen, chief executive of Severnaya, which imports salmon into Russia, warns that higher prices are putting off consumers and distributors in mature markets.

还有一些人警告市场不要过于乐观。从事三文鱼进口业务的俄罗斯公司Severnaya的首席执行官博尔热•普里茨•拉尔森(Børge Prytz Larsen)警告称，价格上涨正打消成熟市场消费者和分销商的热情。

The Russian market, for example, has been hit by the sharp fall in the rouble, he says. Warmer sea temperatures this year also point to better fish growth, hence increased supplies. “I would be surprised if we don’t see prices below NKr30 at some point this year, and there is a lot of uncertainty in 2015,” says Mr Larsen.

他表示，例如，俄罗斯市场受到卢比汇率大幅下挫的冲击。今年海水温度升高也预示着三文鱼长势将更好，因此供应会增加。拉尔森表示：“如果价格没有在今年某个时候降至30挪威克郎以下，我会感到意外，2015年存在很多不确定性。”

Mr Barbe adds that producers may be reaping gains, but in mature markets such as France, where consumers are more price sensitive, processors such as smoked salmon operators and retailers have been losing money on salmon.

芭尔贝补充称，养殖商可能正在获益，但在法国等成熟市场，消费者对于价格更为敏感，三文鱼熏制商等加工商以及零售商的三文鱼业务一直在亏损。

Against current wholesale price levels about NKr45 per kg, the market needs to be below NKr38-NKr40 for processors, distributors and retailers to make money. And unless prices stabilise at levels where operators in the salmon supply chain can see returns, the salmon market will end up shrinking, he says.

目前，三文鱼批发价格在每公斤45挪威克郎左右，这个价格需要降至38至40挪威克郎以下，加工商、分销商和零售商才能赚到钱。他表示，除非价格稳定在三文鱼供应链上其他运营商能够赚到钱的水平，否则三文鱼市场最终将收缩。

If prices continue to rise, salmon will again become a rare delicacy. This would be sad, says Mr Barbe. “We all know that luxury means small volumes.”

如果价格持续上涨，三文鱼将再次变成珍稀美味。芭尔贝表示，这将令人遗憾。“我们都知道，奢侈品意味着量少。”