When China’s Communist leaders under Deng Xiaoping launched their assault on the Tiananmen Square protesters in 25 years ago, they were supposedly following the socialist road and Marxist principles of proletarian rule. “Workers of all lands, unite!” declared Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels in the 1848 Communist Manifesto.

25年前，当以邓小平为首的中国共产党领导人出动军队镇压天安门广场抗议者时，他们在理论上走的是社会主义道路，遵循无产阶级统治的马克思主义原则。“全世界无产者，联合起来！” 卡尔•马克思(Karl Marx)和弗里德里希•恩格斯(Friedrich Engels)在1848年《共产党宣言》(Communist Manifesto)中宣告。

But the vast expansion of the world’s workforce unleashed by Deng following the crackdown on the pro-democracy protesters led to the opposite. The opening up of China through economic reform and foreign direct investment has, instead of uniting the proletariat, divided it.

但是，在镇压了民主抗议者之后，邓小平的政策所释放的大量劳动力导致世界劳动者队伍大幅扩张，却没有带来劳动者的联合。中国借助经济改革和外商直接投资实现的开放，非但没有让无产阶级联合起来，反而把他们分化了。

This was not the revolution Marx envisaged but it was the outcome of Deng’s 1992 southern tour, on which the Chinese leader supported reform in cities such as Shenzhen, trying to strengthen party rule by offering the people opportunity. The fact that few Chinese now mark June 4, 1989 is a tribute both to party censorship and to Deng’s gambit.

这不是马克思当年设想的革命，而是邓小平1992年“南巡”的结果。这位中国领导人在巡视期间支持深圳等城市推进改革，希望通过向人民提供机会来加强党的统治。现在几乎没有中国人纪念1989年6月4日，这个事实既归因于党的审查制度，也要归功于邓小平的谋略。

It encouraged, as the economist Branko Milanovic has written, “the profoundest global reshuffle of people’s economic positions since the Industrial Revolution.” The top 1 per cent earners of the world’s population (especially the 0.1 per cent richest) and millions of new entrants to its industrial workforce have gained in different ways from Deng’s liberalisation.

正如经济学家布兰科•米拉诺维奇(Branko Milanovic)在文章中所写的，邓小平的政策鼓励了“自工业革命以来，人们经济地位上最深远的全球重新洗牌。”全球收入最高的1%人口（尤其是0.1%的富豪阶层）以及数以百万计的新增工业劳动力，都以不同方式获益于邓小平的改革开放。

Meanwhile, the non-bourgeois in advanced economies – manufacturing and service workers with low levels of education and limited skills – have suffered wage stagnation. The ability to bargain for higher wages has been undermined by a huge growth in the global supply of labour – by 1.2bn people between 1980 and 2010.

与此同时，发达经济体的非中产阶层（即教育水平低、工作技能有限的制造业及服务业工人）遭遇了薪酬停滞。随着全球劳动力供应的巨幅增长（1980年到2010年期间全球增加了12亿劳动力），他们争取更高薪酬的能力被削弱。

Deng did not shake up the world alone. When I was an employment correspondent in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the power of organised labour in the UK had already been weakened by Margaret Thatcher’s privatisation of state-owned industries and her defeat of the 1984-85 miners’ strike. Private sector union membership was falling and it continued to decline.

撼动世界的并不只是邓小平一人。上世纪80年代末到90年代初我担任就业记者时，英国的工会实力已被玛格丽特•撒切尔(Margaret Thatcher)削弱；撒切尔对国有产业进行私有化，还挫败了1984-85年的矿工大罢工。私营部门工会人数不断减少。

Political and economic upheaval coincided with the advance of the internet and rapid development of information technology in the mid-1990s. That led to the automation of jobs and more cross-border trade – it became easier for supply chains to stretch around the world.

20世纪90年代中期，伴随着政治和经济剧变，互联网迅速兴起，信息技术快速发展。这一切导致工业自动化，并加大了跨境贸易——企业更容易让自己的供应链延伸至世界各地。

But China’s rise toppled creaking barriers to trade and employment, forging a global labour market and rapid industrialisation. About 620m people globally were lifted from poverty by moving from farm to factory, and China’s gross domestic product per head rose from 3 per cent of the level in advanced economies in 1980 to 20 per cent by 2010, according to the McKinsey Global Institute.

中国的崛起推翻了阻挡贸易和就业的本已动摇的障碍，打造出一个全球劳动力市场，并推动工业化进程加快。全球约有6.2亿人从农田走进工厂，由此摆脱了贫困。根据麦肯锡全球研究所(McKinsey Global Institute)的数据，1980年中国的人均国内生产总值(GDP)仅为发达经济体水平的3%，至2010年已升至20%。

In economic terms, this was good for the Chinese people – although it increased inequality, the gains were broadly spread. For many workers in advanced economies, however, it was like a whole new workforce turning up, eager to put in longer hours for lower pay. Their bargaining power has never recovered from the shock.

从经济角度而言，这对中国人民是好事——尽管它加剧了不平等，但人民收入普遍增加。然而，对于发达经济体的许多工人来说，这就像凭空冒出大量新劳力，这些人愿意拿更低的薪酬，做更长时间的工作。受此冲击，发达经济体劳动者的薪酬议价能力再也没恢复。

“For the individual as a consumer, it has been wonderful – there are many more products and services, much more choice, and it has all become cheaper,” says James Manyika, an MGI director. “For workers with limited skills, it is pretty awful. They were once protected, but now they compete with others who are cheaper and may be more skilled.”

“对于作为消费者的个人来说，这种局面棒极了。市场上有了更多的商品和服务，更多的选择，而且一切都变得更便宜。”麦肯锡全球研究院主管詹姆斯•马尼卡(James Manyika)说，“但那些技能有限的劳动者就惨了。他们曾经受到保护，但现在他们要与那些更便宜，而且可能更熟练的工人去竞争。”

The strongest effect has been felt in Europe and the US, where the share of income going to labour has decreased from 64 per cent in the postwar decades up to the 1980s to 58 per cent today. One Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco study found that the sharpest drop occurred in industries such as textile manufacture that were most exposed to import competition.

欧美感受到最强烈的影响，战后几十年欧美劳动者的收入占比为64%，从20世纪80年代这一数字开始下降，如今已减至58%。旧金山联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)的一项研究发现，最剧烈的下降发生在纺织这类受进口竞争影响最大的产业。

By shifting labour-intensive parts of production to countries such as China and keeping the higher-value aspects at home, companies lowered their costs and raised their returns on capital. For the workers of the world as a whole, that amounted to a wage cut.

通过将劳动密集型的生产环节迁至中国等国家，同时把高价值的生产产品留在本国，西方公司降低了成本，提高了资本回报率。如果将全世界的工人视作一个整体，这相当于降低了薪酬。

After a quarter of a century, this arbitrage is easing. Wages in China’s coastal cities have risen, making it more cost-effective to retain production in the US. But that does not guarantee a return to mass employment in manufacturing and primary industries – advances in technology mean factories now employ fewer workers.

四分之一个世纪后，这种“套利”做法正在趋缓。中国沿海城市工人薪酬已经上涨，使得将生产保留在美国变得更具成本效益。但这并不能保证制造业和第一产业就业岗位的大量回归，因为科技进步意味着工厂如今雇佣的工人更少。

According to a study for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 80 per cent of the fall in labour’s share of global income has been caused by technological change and the shift toward capital-intensive production. Software and information technology have permitted “unprecedented advances in innovation”.

根据经合组织(Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)的一项研究，全球劳动力收入占比的下降中，80%是由技术变化和向资本密集型生产的转变造成的。软件和信息科技开启了“创新方面的空前进展”。

People in managerial and high-skilled jobs have gained – the average US college graduate earned 1.7 times the wages of a high-school dropout in 1980 but 2.7 times by 2008 – and will continue to have superior employment chances. McKinsey estimates that 95m people could be out of work in developing economies by 2020 because they have low skills.

从事管理和高技术含量工作的人由此得益。1980年美国大学毕业生平均薪酬是高中辍学生的1.7倍，到2008年已上升到2.7倍，而且他们将继续得到更优秀的就业机会。麦肯锡预计到2020年，发展中经济体将有9500万人因低技能而失业。

Through the lens of history, the best time to be a member of the proletariat in an advanced economy was probably the postwar period up to the oil shock of the mid-1970s – when most of the Chinese and Indian population was poor and agrarian and there was little competition. The era was already ending when China implemented Deng’s plan.

回过头看，对发达经济体的无产者来说，最美好的时光很可能是从二战后到20世纪70年代石油危机的那段时期，其间中国人和印度人大多还是贫穷的农民，没什么竞争。当中国开始贯彻邓小平的计划时，这个美好的时代就走向终点了。

“Today, hundreds of millions of Chinese are living far more comfortable lives than they were living in 1989,” writes Ezra Vogel in his Deng biography. Meanwhile, millions of employees in advanced economies are less secure. It is a workers’ revolution, but not a unifying one.

傅高义(Ezra Vogel)在他的《邓小平传》中写道：“今天，数亿中国人过着远比1989年时更舒服的生活。”与此同时，发达经济体数以百万计的雇员的“饭碗”更不牢靠。这是一场劳动者的革命，但不是无产阶级联合起来的革命。