The airport of Fortaleza, Brazil’s northeastern beachside city, looked like a parking lot this week for the powers that are changing the order of the world economy.

巴西东北部海滨城市福塔莱萨(Fortaleza)的机场上周看起来就像是一块为那些正在改变世界经济秩序的大国准备的停车场。

Official aircraft from Russia, South Africa and China were lined up on the tarmac, alongside an Air India jet, as the leaders of the so-called Brics nations arrived for their sixth and most important summit yet.

来自俄罗斯、南非和中国的公务机排列在停机坪上，旁边还有一架印度航空(Air India)的飞机。来自所谓“金砖国家”(BRICS)的领导人抵达巴西，出席他们的第六次、也是迄今最重要的一次峰会。

After first being brought together as an acronym invented by Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs to brand his investment thesis about the growth opportunity in large emerging markets, the Brics are finding their political voice. This week, they agreed to their first bricks-and-mortar institutions, committing $100bn into a development bank and a pool of currency swaps.

这些国家最初是因高盛(Goldman Sachs)的吉姆•奥尼尔(Jim O'Neill)创造的一个首字母缩写词走到一起的，奥尼尔曾用这个词来为自己撰写的关于大型新兴市场增长机遇的投资分析文章冠名。如今，这些国家正在树立它们的政治话语权。上周，它们就组建金砖国家首批实体机构达成一致，承诺出资1000亿美元建立一家开发银行，并建立初始资金规模为1000亿美元的货币互换池。

The Brics’ development bank is a potential rival to the World Bank, and the currency swaps will work in parallel to the International Monetary Fund, the two Washington-based institutions that embody the US-led economic order created at Bretton Woods in 1944.

金砖国家开发银行（以下简称金砖银行）是世界银行(World Bank)的潜在竞争对手，而上述货币互换池将起到与国际货币基金组织(IMF)相同的作用。总部位于华盛顿的世行与IMF，代表着由美国主导的世界经济秩序，这一秩序是1944年在布雷顿森林(Bretton Woods)建立起来的。

The Brics now make up a quarter of the global economy, with China poised to overtake the US as the world’s leading economy, based on domestic purchasing power, this year. Together, these countries are seeking to use their clout to create institutions that reflect their new status.

金砖国家经济总量目前占全球经济的四分之一，按购买力平价计算，今年中国有望超越美国，成为世界头号经济大国。金砖国家正共同谋求利用它们的影响力来建立能反映自身新地位的机构。

Guido Mantega, Brazil’s finance minister, said one of the big differences between the Brics’ vision of a new global financial architecture and the existing US-centred system was the principle of equality among the stakeholders. “In the Brics bank, we will have equal power,” he says. “This is a fundamental point.” Unlike the IMF, whose leadership is always European, and the World Bank, whose president is chosen by the US, the Brics bank will have a five-year rotating presidency, with each country getting a turn.

巴西财长吉多•曼特加(Guido Mantega)表示，金砖国家对新全球金融架构的愿景与现有的以美国为中心的体系存在若干重大差别，其中之一就是利益相关方之间的平等原则。他说：“在金砖银行，我们各方将享有同等的权力。这是一个根本点。”与总裁职位始终由欧洲人把持的IMF和行长人选由美国选定的世行不同，金砖银行的行长将实行5年轮换制，由各国轮流派员担任。

The rise of the Brics marks the first true shift of power in the global economy since Bretton Woods. Japan, a US ally of manageable scale and few geopolitical aspirations, was easy to slot in, but now the system needs to accommodate a new set of powers that do not necessarily accept its basic assumptions.

金砖国家的兴起标志着，自布雷顿森林会议以来，全球经济的力量对比首次发生了真正的变化。以前，作为美国的一个规模可控、地缘政治抱负很少的盟友，日本很容易地融入到布雷顿森林体系中；但现在，该体系有必要做出一些调整，去顺应另一群未必接受其基本前提假定的大国。

The creation of the Brics bank shows what could happen if they are not accommodated: the fragmentation of world economic governance into multiple centres of power, competing for influence, and less able to work together in delivering global economic and financial stability.

金砖银行的成立表明，如果该体系没有顺应这些国家会发生什么情况：世界经济治理会割裂为多个彼此争夺影响力的权力中心，各国协力实现全球经济和金融稳定的能力将受到削弱。

But it would be a mistake to think this has already happened. The Brics are not as united as they appear and the new institutions they are setting up face formidable operational challenges. The moves being touted this week in Brazil are driven as much by frustration with the lack of US leadership as by a desire to supplant it. Tension with the existing system is on the rise – but the system has not broken yet.

不过，如果你认为这种情况已经发生，那就错了。金砖国家并不像表面上看上去那么团结，它们正在建立的新机构在运营上面临巨大的挑战。上周在巴西得到大肆宣传的这些举措，既出自于对取代美国领导地位的渴望，也出自于对美国领导力缺失的失望。现有体系承受的压力确实在加大，但这个体系还没有崩溃。

“I never dreamed they would get together as a political group,” Mr O’Neill says of the Brics. “But I always thought the biggest rationale for them to act together is how little global economic governance has advanced.”

奥尼尔在谈到金砖国家时表示：“我从未想象它们会组成一个政治集团。但我始终认为，它们携手行动的最合理解释是，全球经济治理取得的进展太少。”

The most immediate complaint is the failure of the US Congress to ratify reforms to IMF voting power. Those changes would have given big emerging markets a say at the fund more in keeping with their weight in the global economy.

最明显的抱怨是美国国会未能批准IMF投票权改革。那些改革将让大型新兴市场国家在IMF获得与它们在全球经济中的权重更相称的话语权。

“We had a ‘half success’,” says Mr Mantega. “But we have still not been able to cement this because of the US Congress.” The result is that the Brics languish with 10.3 per cent of the votes at the fund compared with their 24.5 per cent stake in the world economy.

曼特加表示：“我们‘成功了一半’，但由于美国国会（的阻扰），我们仍未能搞定这件事。”结果，金砖国家在IMF只有区区10.3%的投票权，而它们在全球经济中的比重为24.5%。

To be thwarted by the US in this manner – particularly after it originally pushed for the reforms – is galling. But it is in keeping with a political climate in the US dominated by budget worries and anti-government sentiment. The rise of China’s aggressive policy banks have already proven an attractive alternative to the World Bank for many nations; the US debate revolves around whether its own Export-Import Bank should be shut down as a form of crony capitalism.

改革被美国以这种方式阻扰着实令人恼火，尤其是考虑到美国一开始曾力主实施改革。但这一结果与美国国内由预算担忧和反政府情绪主导的政治气候相吻合。对许多国家来说，中国极富进取心的政策性银行的崛起，已为它们提供了一个世行之外的有吸引力的选择；美国则在围绕是否应把本国的进出口银行作为裙带资本主义的某种形态予以关闭展开辩论。

The Obama administration avows its will to lead the world economy but has little credibility when it cannot muster domestic support. It does not help that the Senate has not confirmed candidates for two top international jobs at the US Treasury; nor has it confirmed a US director or an alternate to the IMF. It is hard to lead the global economy without staff.

奥巴马(Obama)政府公开宣称，愿引领世界经济发展。但考虑到它无力赢得国内的支持，这种宣称没什么可信度。美国参议院既没有批准美国财政部两个高级国际岗位的人选的任命，也没有批准IMF美国董事和候补董事的任命，这也不是什么好消息。没有人员就很难引领全球经济发展。

“Other countries are often more conscious of US global power and influence than we are ourselves,” says Daniel Price, managing director of Rock Creek Global Advisors, and a former G20 sherpa in the George W Bush administration. “This may help explain their deep disappointment when US actions diverge so markedly from its rhetoric or ideals, whether on security, human rights or international trade.”

Rock Creek Global Advisor的董事总经理丹尼尔•普赖斯(Daniel Price)表示：“其他国家往往比我们自己更清楚美国在全球的权力和影响力。这可能有助于解释，它们为何在美国的行动严重背离其言论或理想时深感失望，无论是在安全、人权还是在国际贸易问题上都是如此。”普赖斯曾任小布什(George W Bush)政府派驻20国集团(G20)的代表。

All the Brics are disappointed about the IMF reform but with a more engaged and reliable US, their obvious internal differences might come to the fore. The Brics, after all, are a disparate group bound more by frustration with the existing system than strong shared interests; they did not coalesce behind a rival candidate when Christine Lagarde was nominated to the IMF, for example.

所有金砖国家都对IMF改革感到失望，不过，如果美国在IMF改革的问题上加强参与、提高可信度，金砖国家内部的巨大分歧或许就会显露无疑。金砖国家毕竟是一个异质集团，它们走到一起更多的是出于对现有体系的不满，而不是出于强大的共同利益。举例来说，当克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)被提名为IMF总裁时，它们并没有联合推出一位与之竞争的人选。

Chinese leader Xi Jinping sees a geopolitical role for the Brics as part of his new push to set up an alternative to US “hegemony”. Mr Xi has embraced a vision of China as a leader of nonaligned nations, first developed in the 1950s, even as he has taken a more aggressive stance on disputed maritime borders.

中国领导人习近平将金砖国家的地缘政治角色视为其新的努力的一部分，这一努力旨在打造一支力量，取代美国的“霸权”。就在习近平在有争议的海上边界问题上采取更强硬立场的同时，他也欣然接受了中国作为不结盟国家领导者的愿景。这一愿景最初是在上世纪50年代形成的。

“China wants to go on being taken, especially among its Asian neighbours and in Africa and Latin America, as one of them, as a power from the south, a developing nation,” says Marcos Troyjo, co-director of the BRICLab forum at Columbia University. “This bank will end up providing a service for China in that regard. It gives China a sort of still-emerging nation status when in reality it is a major economic superpower.”

哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)金砖国家研究中心(BRICLab)联席主任马科斯•特罗伊若(Marcos Troyjo)表示：“中国希望继续被视为一个亚非拉国家、一个南方国家、一个发展中国家，尤其是希望其他亚非拉国家这么看。这家银行最终将在这方面为中国提供帮助。它赋予中国某种‘仍在崛起中的国家’的身份，尽管实际上中国已是一个主要的经济超级大国。”

China is motivated by “unmet expectations” over the big multilateral institutions such as the World Bank, IMF or Asian Development Bank, says Zhao Xijun, deputy director of the School of Finance at Renmin University in Beijing. But it is also looking for better returns for its vast pile of foreign currency reserves, most of which are invested in US Treasuries, and risk losing value.

中国人民大学财政金融学院(School of Finance at Renmin University)副院长赵锡军表示，中国的动力来自它对世行、IMF或亚洲开发银行(ADB)等大型多边机构的“未得到满足的期望”。但另一方面中国也在为其庞大的外汇储备寻找更高的回报。中国的大多数外汇储备投资于美国国债，面临贬值的风险。

Russia has obvious reasons to support new Brics institutions at a time when it is exposed to US-led sanctions following its occupation of Crimea.

俄罗斯在吞并克里米亚之后，面临美国主导的国际制裁，在此之际它显然有理由支持新的金砖机构。

Brazil, India and South Africa are likely borrowers to finance their infrastructure needs. The Brics bank could become a welcome alternative to the bureaucratic and highly conditional lending of the World Bank and IMF. It also offers a way to strengthen economic ties: getting Indian and South African support for a global trade deal, for example.

巴西、印度和南非很可能会向金砖银行借款，满足自身基建融资需求。相对于官僚风气浓厚、放贷条件苛刻的世行和IMF，金砖银行可能会成为受人欢迎的替代选择。它还有助于加强经济联系：例如推动印度和南非支持一项全球性贸易协定。

Brazil has staked its future on reviving multilateral trade talks, says Oliver Stuenkel, assistant professor of international trade relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo. The country has not signed bilateral agreements and risks being left behind if it cannot get the Bali trade deal done.

圣保罗热图利奥•瓦加斯基金会(Fundação Getúlio Vargas)国际贸易关系学助理教授奥利弗•施廷克尔(Oliver Stuenkel)表示，巴西已将自己的未来寄托在重振多边贸易谈判上。巴西尚未签署双边贸易协定，如果巴厘岛贸易协定得不到通过，它可能会落在后面。

Getting the Brics bank up and running will not be easy, however. “The agreement deserves applause,” says Douglas Rediker at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, “but it’s a small first step in creating a new institution on the global stage worthy of being spoken about in the same breath as the IMF and the World Bank.”

但建立和运营金砖银行不会是件容易事。“（金砖国家达成的）协议值得喝彩，”华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的道格拉斯•雷迪克(Douglas Rediker)表示，“但就在国际舞台上建立一个能与IMF和世行分庭抗礼的新机构而言，这只能说是迈出了小小的第一步。”

The fund and the bank embody a set of rules that members know they must operate by, Mr Rediker says, and have a strong capacity both to monitor their borrowers and to enforce conditions on their loans. The test of the new Brics institutions will come when one of the members runs into trouble and demands a big loan. How will its counterparts react?

雷迪克表示，IMF和世行代表着一套规则，它们的成员国明白自己必须遵守这套规则。而且，它们有很强的能力监督借款者和执行贷款条款。而当金砖国家的某个成员国陷入困境、需要一大笔贷款时，新的金砖国家机构将面临考验。这种情况下，其他金砖国家将如何应对？

That highlights the fundamental issue for the Brics as potential leaders of the global economy: trust.

这凸显出金砖国家作为全球经济潜在领导者所面临的根本问题：信任。

“Despite all the fulmination about the US, fundamentally, over the long-run, other countries do trust the US to do the right thing,” says Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University. “With other countries there is not that trust.”

“尽管美国遭受大量批评，但根本而言、长期而言，其他国家相信美国会做正确的事情，”康奈尔大学(Cornell University)贸易政策学教授埃斯瓦尔•普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示，“但对于其他国家，就没有那种信任了。”

“There is no question we are not leading as we could or should,” says Mr Rediker. “But the US is still the first among equals in the international financial system. It is the intellectual leader, the political leader and the economic leader.” The rest of the world, including the Brics, is still counting on an acceleration in US growth to drive the global economy forward this year and next.

“毫无疑问，我们现在没有像我们能够或者应该的那样领导世界，”雷迪克表示，“但美国仍是国际金融体系的领头羊。它是智力领袖、政治领袖和经济领袖。”今明两年，包括金砖国家在内的世界其他国家，仍指望美国经济增长的加速来推动全球经济发展。

Against that backdrop the Brics bank appears in a slightly different light: as a new player in the global financial system, yes, but not as a vanguard set to dispute its commanding heights. Having to look over their shoulders could spur the IMF and World Bank to greater efficiency.

这种背景为金砖银行赋予了略为不同的形象：全球金融体系的新参与者，而不是志在争夺其制高点的先头部队。由于不得不时刻留意自己面临的竞争威胁，IMF和世行可能会因此提高效率。

“The additional competition will push multilateral institutions to improve,” says Mr Zhao. Mr Prasad agrees. “I actually think that competition is very good, even when it comes to the international financial architecture.” The early months are likely to be critical. If the Brics bank can get off to a strong start, says Mr Troyjo, establishing a staff and making positive loans, it could become more than a talking shop.

赵锡军说：“额外的竞争将推动多边机构完善自身。”普拉萨德对此表示认同。“我实际上认为，这种竞争是件好事，即便对国际金融架构来说也是如此。”最初的几个月很可能是关键性的。特罗伊若表示，如果金砖银行能够强势起步、建立起员工队伍、发放具有积极意义的贷款，那么它可能就不会变成一个清谈俱乐部。

If it falters, it could go the way of innumerable other initiatives to establish an alternative voice for developing nations, such as the Latin American Free Trade Association, which fizzled out. The high hopes in Fortaleza show the international financial system is changing. However, the familiar bastions of Bretton Woods look set to stand for some years to come.

发展中国家另立门户但后来不了了之的尝试数不胜数，拉丁美洲自由贸易协会(Latin American Free Trade Association)就是一例。如果金砖银行发展不顺利，它可能会步这些举措的后尘。人们对福塔莱萨寄予的厚望，表明国际金融体系正在变革。然而，布雷顿森林体系那为人熟知的壁垒，似乎有望在相当长的时间内屹立不倒。

Brics bank: Equal partners will sidestep colonial legacy

金砖银行：平等的合作伙伴将规避殖民遗产

After the talk shop in Fortaleza had finished late on Monday, Brazil’s finance minister Guido Mantega took time to spell out just how different the vision for the new institution being created by the Brics would be from its Bretton Woods counterparts, writes Joe Leahy.

福塔莱萨会谈于上周一晚间结束后，巴西财长曼特加抽出时间，阐释了设想中的金砖银行与布雷顿森林体系的机构会有何不同。

Everything, at least in the Brics bank if not in their proposed $100bn reserve fund, would be done on a completely equal basis, he said. The aim is to avoid what the Brics see as the galling colonial legacy of the International Monetary Fund, in which four European countries – Britain, France, Germany and Italy – have a combined share of votes of 17.6 per cent while commanding only 13.4 per cent of the global economy. The Brics, by contrast, have only 10.3 per cent the IMF vote and yet up to nearly one quarter of the global economy.

他表示，至少在金砖银行中（如果不考虑拟议中的1000亿美元储备基金的话），一切事宜将在完全平等的基础上解决。这样做是为了规避金砖国家眼中IMF令人不快的殖民遗产。在IMF中，英国、法国、德国和意大利这四个欧洲国家的投票份额合计达17.6%，但它们在全球经济中的比重合计只有13.4%。相比之下，金砖国家在全球经济中的比重高达近四分之一，但在IMF只有10.3%的投票权。

Mr Mantega said each country will contribute the same amount of funding to the banks – an initial $2bn each to be injected over seven years – and have an equal vote. The remainder of the subscribed capital of $50bn will be in the form of guarantees.

曼特加表示，各成员国将向金砖银行贡献等额资金——先在7年里各注资20亿美元——并拥有相等的投票权。500亿美元认缴资本的剩余部分将采用担保的形式。

The bank’s president, a position that will rotate equally between the members, will be assisted by four vice-presidents and answer to a board of directors consisting of senior bureaucrats from each of the countries.

金砖银行行长一职将由各成员国轮流派员担任，下设四名副行长，董事会将由各成员国派出的高级官员组成。

There will also be a board of governors that will decide the big strategic issues.

另外还设有理事会，负责重大战略问题的决策。

Brazil will provide the first chairperson of the board of directors and Russia first chairperson of the board of governors. The Brics’ contingent reserve arrangement, meanwhile, will be divided according to financial strength, with China providing $41bn of the fund, Brazil, Russia and India $18bn and South Africa $5bn.

首任董事会主席将来自巴西，首任理事会主席将来自俄罗斯。与此同时，金砖国家应急储备安排的出资份额将按照各国经济实力划定，中国出资410亿美元，巴西、俄罗斯和印度各出资180亿美元，南非出资50亿美元。

Decisions to approve requests for liquidity support from a country will be taken by a simple majority using “weighted voting”. More involved decisions will be taken by consensus, implying a veto for each country.

如果某国申请流动性援助，各成员国将基于采用“加权投票”的简单多数来决定是否批准其请求。更加复杂的决策将基于共识作出，这意味着每个成员国都有否决权。