Until recently, I thought I did not much care if Scotland voted for independence. But, now, as the prospect becomes very real, I am surprised by how upset I feel. I follow the polls obsessively. I fume at the incompetence of the No campaign and the insularity of the Yes. And my sense of foreboding grows as the day grows closer.

一直到不久前，我都认为自己不太关心苏格兰独立公投的事。但现在，随着苏格兰独立前景变得越来越真实，我开始惊讶于自己对此感到多么的不安。我着迷一样地关注民调结果。反独立阵营的无能和独立阵营的狭隘让我感到愤怒。随着投票日的临近，我心里不祥的预感也在加深。

Why should that be? The answer is that the Scottish referendum has made me realise how much my own sense of identity, and personal security, is tied up with my British nationality. Meanwhile my job – covering world affairs – tells me that the world is in a more dangerous state than for decades. That makes it a terrible time to break up Britain.

为什么会这样？答案是，苏格兰独立公投让我意识到，我的身份认同感和个人安全感与英国国籍的联系是多么的紧密。另一方面，我的工作——报道全球事务——告诉我，当今世界处于比过去几十年更危险的境地中。英国若在此时分裂，只能使国际局势雪上加霜。

As the child of immigrants, I always feel a sense of gratitude and pleasure when I write on a customs form: born London, nationality British. My forebears were not so lucky. My grandparents were Jews from different parts of eastern Europe who emigrated to South Africa in the years before the Holocaust. My parents emigrated again, not wanting to live or bring up children in apartheid South Africa. It feels like a personal triumph that my own children were born in the same country as me.

作为移民的孩子，我在报关单上填写“出生地：伦敦；国籍：英国”时，总是心存感激和喜悦。我的先辈就没这么幸运了。我的祖辈们是来自东欧不同地区的犹太人，他们在大屠杀几年前移居南非。我的父母再次迁居，他们不想在种族隔离的南非生活，也不想在那里把孩子养大。我的孩子跟我出生在同一个国家，这感觉像是一种个人胜利。

My ingrained sense that Britain represents stability is reinforced by my travels – often to more troubled parts of the world. I spent last week in Ukraine and felt lucky, as ever, to be able to return to my own safe corner of the world.

我有个根深蒂固的想法是英国代表稳定，这个想法在我去各地旅行之后得到了巩固——我去的通常是世界上更动荡的地区。上周，我在乌克兰度过，我像以往一样感到幸运，自己能回到世界上属于我自己的安全一角。

Britain’s political stability is what set this nation apart from the rest of Europe in the 20th century. All the other big [LEADING?]nations experienced dictatorship or defeat or civil war or tyranny. Britain remained free, stable, democratic and apparently immune to fanaticism.

英国的政治稳定，正是使之在20世纪不同于欧洲其他国家的特点。在欧洲，所有其他大国都经历了独裁、战败、内战或暴政。英国始终是一个自由、稳定和民主的国家，明显跟各种狂热不沾边。

If the United Kingdom breaks up, that deep stability will be shaken. It is not that I expect civil war to break out. But I do not think a divorce between Scotland and England will be easy or friendly. There will be arguments about the currency, about the debt, about oil. Above all, there will be bruised and bitter feelings on both sides. On a personal level, I feel affronted to hear Scottish nationalists accuse the English of not caring about social justice, or of being narrow-minded and warmongering. That is not my experience, or the experience of millions of other immigrant families that were welcomed into England. Indeed, while the rhetoric of Scottish nationalism sometimes attacks the English for their alleged chauvinism, it is noticeable that England is a much more racially diverse country than Scotland.

如果联合王国分裂，这一高度稳定性将被动摇。我并不预计会爆发内战。但我认为，苏格兰和英格兰分家将不容易，也不会心平气和。双方在货币、债务和石油上会发生争吵。最重要的是，双方都将产生受伤和痛苦的感觉。在个人层面，听到苏格兰民族主义者指控英格兰人不关注社会公正，或心胸狭窄并煽动战争，让我觉得受到了侮辱。我的经验告诉我这不是事实，其他数百万被欢迎进入英格兰的移民家庭也有同感。实际上，尽管苏格兰民族主义者不时抨击英国人的所谓沙文主义，但英格兰的种族多元化程度远高于苏格兰，也是显而易见的。

I suspect that my own irritation with the rhetoric of Scottish nationalism is widely shared in England. That will mean that, at least for a while, that the English are unlikely to adopt a magnanimous attitude in any negotiations on independence. This could turn nasty quite quickly. In fact, even a narrow No vote could leave a legacy of frustration and resentment on both sides of the border.

我猜想，广大英格兰民众也像我一样，对苏格兰民族主义者的说法感到愤怒。这将意味着，至少一段时间内，英格兰人不可能对任何独立谈判采取宽宏大量的态度。这可能很快令局势变糟。事实上，就连票数接近的否定投票结果，都可能给双方带来持续的挫败感和怨恨情绪。

Even in good times, I would worry about the implications of the break-up of the UK. But the current international environment is grimmer than for decades. An angry Russia has just annexed part of a neighbouring country. President Vladimir Putin boasts of his country’s nuclear arms and his ability to over-run Ukraine in two weeks. The EU he faces is weak and divided. The US is more detached than it has been for years. A far-right candidate has just topped an opinion poll for the next French presidential race. Meanwhile in the Middle East, a jihadist death cult has seized control of large parts of Iraq and a murderous civil war is raging in Syria. Hundreds of thousands of desperate refugees will wash up on the shores of Europe this year.

即便是在太平年代，我也会担忧英国分裂的影响。更何况，当前国际环境比过去几十年严峻得多。愤怒的俄罗斯刚刚吞并了邻国的一部分领土。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)炫耀俄罗斯的核武器，并吹嘘他有能力在两周之内拿下乌克兰首都。他面对的欧盟(EU)不但实力不足，而且成员国意见不统一。美国在过去几年里就表现出了超然态度，如今更加超然了。在法国下一届总统选举的民调中，一位极右翼候选人刚刚获得了最高支持率。与此同时，在中东，圣战主义死亡崇拜笼罩了伊拉克大部分地区，而叙利亚境内的残忍内战正在肆虐。今年，将有数十万孤注一掷的难民涌向欧洲国家边境。

These troubles are lapping at the borders of the United Kingdom. Anybody who has witnessed the thousands of would-be migrants desperately trying to make it across to the Channel to England (before doubtless realising their mistake and heading for socially just Scotland) will have seen a vivid illustration of how global security issues affect everyday life.

这些麻烦正在敲击英国的边境。成千上万可能成为移民的人，拼命想穿过英吉利海峡前往英格兰（之后无疑会意识到这是个错误，于是改道前往社会公正的苏格兰），任何目睹了这一切的人，都看到了一个生动例子，说明全球安全问题是如何影响日常生活。

Yet the Scottish referendum campaign has been conducted as if the rest of the world stops at London. There has been almost no discussion of foreign affairs – apart from the nationalists’ inane refrain that a morally superior Scotland will not have to join in “illegal wars”. The nationalists also insist that an independent Scotland will get rid of nuclear weapons. (Ukraine did just that, when it became independent, and now bitterly regrets it.)

然而，苏格兰公投运动的进行，给人感觉就像是世界其他地方仅仅止步于伦敦。除了民族主义者愚蠢的老生常谈（诸如拥有道德优越性的苏格兰将不必参加“非法战争”等等）之外，几乎没人讨论外部事务。民族主义者们也坚称，独立之后的苏格兰将放弃核武器（乌克兰在独立后就是这么做的，现在则对此追悔莫及）。

Anybody who suggests the security situation in Europe might be relevant to Scotland’s referendum campaign is shouted down for scaremongering. Alex Salmond, the leader of the Yes campaign, has even talked of his admiration for the way Mr Putin has restored Russian pride – remarks that were made as Russian troops were moving into Crimea.

也有些人提出，欧洲安全局势可能跟苏格兰公投运动息息相关，但所有这些人的声音都被以危言耸听之名压制下去了。苏格兰独立阵营的领袖亚历克斯•萨尔蒙德(Alex Salmond)，甚至谈到他对普京恢复俄罗斯尊严的方式感到钦佩——他是在俄罗斯军队进入克里米亚时发出如此言论的。

If the world keeps going bad, the Scottish nationalists could soon discover that there are many worse and more dangerous people in the world than the hated “Tory toffs” in London. By then, however, it could be too late. If the vote goes the wrong way on Thursday, the UK will break up. George Robertson, a proud Scot and a former head of Nato, was not exaggerating when he said that the “forces of darkness” in the world would love that.

如果世界局势继续恶化，苏格兰民族主义者可能很快就会发现，世界上还有很多比伦敦那些遭人恨的“托利党有钱人”更恶劣、更危险的人物。但等到那时，可能就晚了。如果今天（9月18日）的投票走向歧途，英国将会分裂。自豪的苏格兰人、北约(Nato)前秘书长乔治•罗伯逊(George Robertson)曾说，世界上的“黑暗势力”将乐见英国分裂，他没有夸大其辞。