Russia does not face an immediate threat from the sharp fall in oil prices over recent months. While the economy is heavily dependent on oil, the country’s accumulated reserves and the floating rouble will mitigate the shock, and Russia should be able to withstand levels of $80 to $90 a barrel for about two years. But in the longer term, persistently low prices – reinforced by the pressure imposed by western sanctions – could pose an existential challenge to Vladimir Putin’s regime.

最近几个月的油价急剧下跌不会立即对俄罗斯造成威胁。尽管俄罗斯经济严重依赖石油，但该国积累的巨额外汇储备以及卢布汇率自由浮动将会缓解油价下跌的冲击，俄罗斯应该有能力在两年左右的时间里抵御油价在每桶80美元至90美元之间带来的冲击。但从更长期而言，油价持续低迷（再加上西方制裁所造成的压力）可能会给弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)的政权带来生死存亡的挑战。

The 25 per cent drop in the oil price over the past three months did come as a shock to the Russian government. The latest draft of the 2015-17 budget assumes a price of $100 a barrel (and average annual gross domestic product growth of 2.6 per cent). Even before the oil price shift, the government planned to deplete its Reserve Fund from 5 per cent of GDP to 3 per cent by the end of 2017, in order to pay for the deficit foreseen in each of the next three years. Much of Russia’s other sovereign fund, the National Welfare Fund, has already been committed to infrastructure and providing support to the banks and companies sanctioned by the west.

油价在过去3个月下跌25%的确对俄罗斯政府造成了冲击。俄罗斯政府在其最新的2015年-2017年预算草案中预计油价每桶为100美元（年均GDP增长为2.6%）。其实在油价下跌之前，为了弥补未来3年预计每年都将出现的赤字，俄罗斯政府计划到2017年年底将其储备基金(Reserve Fund)占GDP的比例从5%降至3%。俄罗斯已经承诺将另一个主权财富基金——国家福利基金(National Welfare Fund)中的许多资金用于基础设施建设，并为遭受西方制裁的银行和公司提供支持。

Oil and gas account for about half of government revenues in Russia; a price drop from $100 to $80 a barrel would cause a shortfall of about 2 per cent of GDP. Normally this would not be a great problem, as Russia would borrow in international markets, and Russian state-owned banks and companies would refinance their external debt.

油气收入占到俄罗斯政府收入的一半左右，油价从每桶100美元下跌至80美元，将使得GDP减少约2%。正常情况下这不是一个大问题，因为俄罗斯将会在国际市场借贷，俄罗斯国有银行和公司将会对其外部债务再融资。

In the light of the west’s sanctions, the situation is a lot more uncomfortable. But this does not mean Russia will run out of cash before the end of 2017. The central bank has committed to the floating exchange rate, so the lower oil price will result in a weaker rouble, helping both the economy and the government’s own budget to weather the shock. Russian government spending is denominated in roubles; if depreciation is strong enough, the budget may be balanced even if the oil price is at $80.

但由于西方的制裁，情况要糟糕得多。但这并不意味着俄罗斯将在2017年末之前出现资金枯竭的问题。俄罗斯央行承诺实施浮动汇率，因此油价下跌将导致卢布贬值，从而有助于俄罗斯经济和政府预算免受冲击。俄罗斯政府支出以卢布计价，如果卢布的贬值幅度足够大，即便油价达到80美元，预算也能实现收支平衡。

This will not solve Mr Putin’s real problem: stagnating, and most likely declining, real incomes. Capital outflows will continue to result in lower investment, and therefore lower growth, in coming years. The government’s 2 per cent growth forecast for 2015 already looks optimistic. Even before the oil price dropped, the consensus was for 1 per cent; the forecast by market analysts and international organisations is now about 0.5 per cent. And while the central bank will attempt to keep a lid on inflation, a weaker rouble will undermine the purchasing power of Russian consumers in real terms. Russia is a net importer of food and consumer goods; while there will be substantial import substitution, overall prices can be expected to increase.

这不会解决普京面临的真正问题：实际收入增长停滞，很有可能是不断下降。未来几年资本外逃将继续导致投资下降，从而导致增长减速。俄罗斯政府对2015年经济增长2%的预测已经显得有些过于乐观。在油价下跌之前，市场的共识是增长1%；现在市场分析师和国际组织的预测是0.5%左右。尽管俄罗斯央行将努力遏制通胀，但卢布贬值将侵蚀俄罗斯消费者的实际购买力。俄罗斯是一个食品和消费品的净进口国；尽管可以进口大量的替代品，但预计整体价格将会上涨。

Mr Putin’s government has never faced budget constraints as tough. Even during the 2008-09 financial crisis, the challenge was more manageable. The budget then was based on an oil price of $40 to $50 a barrel, while Russia had much larger Reserve and National Welfare Funds, worth 20 per cent of GDP. Not surprisingly, the state spent its way out of the crisis.

普京政府从未遇到如此严峻的预算约束。即使是在2008年至2009年金融危机期间，这种挑战也比现在更加可控。当时预算建立在油价每桶40美元至50美元的基础之上，同时俄罗斯的储备基金和国家福利基金的规模也大得多，达到GDP的20%。毫不奇怪，俄罗斯通过增加支出的方式摆脱了危机。

This time, the government will have to choose whether to cut spending, and thus publicly recognise its inability to deliver on Mr Putin’s 2012 electoral promises, or raise taxes – which would further hit investment and GDP growth. Either way, if oil prices remain in the $80 to $90 range, the government will have to placate an electorate suffering lower living standards. The experience of recent months gives us a good idea of how Mr Putin will respond: by convincing the public that they are in a besieged fortress and must rally around the flag whatever the cost. This will require raising propaganda and political repression to yet another level – and may involve even more unpredictable foreign policy choices.

俄罗斯政府这次将不得不在削减支出和增税之间做出选择，前者相当于公开承认自己无力实现普京在2012年时的竞选承诺，后者将进一步打击投资和GDP增长。无论哪一种方式，如果油价依然保持在每桶80美元至90美元之间，俄罗斯政府将不得不安抚生活水平下降的选民。最近几个月的经历让我们很好地明白了普京将会如何回应：说服公众相信他们四面楚歌，因此必须不惜代价团结起来。这将需要再次加大宣传和政治压迫力度，可能包括更加不可预测的外交政策选择。