For the renminbi to go truly global it needs more than just cross-border trade flows. China needs to make giant strides in the opening of its domestic capital markets to allow renminbi to flow more freely between China and the rest of the world. This will speed up the renminbi’s emergence as an investment currency and bring the ultimate convergence of onshore and offshore markets closer.

人民币要想做到真正的国际化，只靠跨境贸易往来是不够的。中国需要大刀阔斧地开放国内资本市场，以使人民币能在中国与世界其他地方之间更自由地流动。这将加快人民币作为投资货币的崛起，并使在岸人民币市场和离岸人民币市场最终融合得更紧密。

The renminbi is already convertible under the current account and the offshore market is showing strong organic growth. At the end of November last year, offshore renminbi deposits exceeded Rmb1.85tn, up from Rmb1.35tn at the end of 2013 and Rmb315m at the end of 2011. We are optimistic that these flows will continue to accelerate as the proportion of China’s total trade settled in renminbi increases.

人民币已实现经常账户可兑换，离岸市场展现出强劲的有机发展。去年11月末，离岸人民币存款额超过1.85万亿元人民币，2013年底这个数字为1.35万亿元人民币，2011年底仅为3.15亿元人民币。我们的态度很乐观，相信随着中国以人民币结算的贸易占比上升，离岸人民币存款的增长将继续加速。

The volume, however, only tells part of the story. Offshore renminbi liquidity is comprised largely from cross-border trade settlement, retail conversion and bilateral currency swaps between China’s central bank and foreign central banks. The need to hold renminbi to buy Chinese exports is no doubt an important aspect of the Chinese currency’s international allure, but it alone cannot sustain the desire of the outside world to adopt the renminbi.

然而，存款额只是整件事的一部分。离岸人民币流动性主要由跨境贸易结算、个人兑换以及中国央行与外国央行之间的双边货币互换组成。毫无疑问，持有人民币以购买中国出口产品的需求是人民币国际吸引力的重要方面，但仅靠这一点不足以支撑外界使用人民币的意愿。

The pace of growth is steadying as interest among overseas investors in holding renminbi wanes. This is due to the offshore renminbi market not being liquid and deep enough. Investors need to see whether the currency is stable enough and if they have proper investment channels to receive returns.

随着海外投资者持有人民币的兴趣逐渐降低，离岸人民币的增长速度渐趋稳定。这是因为离岸人民币市场流动性不佳，市场深度也不够。投资者需要看到人民币是否足够稳定，以及他们是否有合适的投资渠道来获取回报。

The next step will be critical. To stimulate investor interest in holding renminbi assets, there must be sufficient investment and financial products for holders of offshore renminbi to invest in. This will play a key role in encouraging the usage of renminbi across the border. China urgently needs to accelerate reform to improve its domestic capital markets to become efficient.

下一步非常关键。要激发投资者持有人民币资产的兴趣，就必须有足够的投资和金融产品，方便离岸人民币持有者进行投资。这将对鼓励跨境使用人民币起到关键作用。中国迫切需要加快改革，以提高国内资本市场的效率。

At $17.4tn, its domestic equity and bond markets are big and growing fast, but they punch well below their weight both domestically and internationally. China’s domestic bond market is already the third largest in the world. We expect it to double in size within three to five years as China continues its financial reforms to build multi-layer capital markets. The Chinese government is incentivising corporates to reduce reliance on bank lending and to raise funding directly from capital markets.

中国股票和债券市场总规模达到17.4万亿美元，不仅块头很大，而且还在快速发展，但它们却未能在国内和国际上发挥应有的影响力。中国债市规模已是全球第三。我们预期，随着中国继续金融改革以建立多层次资本市场，国内债市规模将在3到5年内翻番。中国政府正在采取鼓励措施，推动企业减少对银行贷款的依赖并从资本市场上直接融资。

Opening the capital account will be an important step in the renminbi becoming a major global investment currency, and ease access to borrowing with more market-driven interest rate markets to fund China’s next phase of growth. Furthermore, the liquidity, depth and ease of access of the onshore market will determine if the renminbi can become a funding currency in the global capital market.

开放资本账户不仅将成为人民币迈向主要全球性投资货币的重要一步，还将使人们能够更容易地从利率更加市场化的市场借到钱，以便为中国下一阶段的增长提供所需的资金。此外，在岸市场的流动性、深度和准入程度将决定人民币是否能成为全球资本市场的融资货币。

It is important to note that the capital account is already more open than people think. Around 85 percent of China’s capital account is already convertible, according to Yi Gang, head of China’s state administration for foreign exchange. Indeed, only four out of the 40 items in the capital account are currently not convertible, while 22 items are partially convertible.

需要指出的是，资本账户的开放程度已经比人们想象的高。中国国家外汇管理局局长易纲表示，中国85%左右的资本账户已经可兑换。事实上，资本账户的40个子项目中，不可兑换的项目目前只有4项，部分可兑换的项目则有22项。

As the capital account opens further, we expect increasing amounts of renminbi transactions and holdings will be given a foothold via offshore renminbi centres. This will make offshore renminbi markets a critical component of the developing financial system.

随着资本账户进一步开放，我们预期更多的人民币交易和持有将通过离岸人民币中心获得立足点。这将使离岸人民币市场成为正在发展的金融体系的一个重要组成部分。

As the offshore money pool gets bigger it will attract more issuers, especially those ones which are confined from issuing in the onshore market. In the longer run, when the renminbi plays a significant role in international trade and investment, the offshore market will become a platform for global corporates to raise funds.

随着离岸资金池规模变大，它将吸引来更多的发行方，尤其是那些目前被限定在在岸市场的发行方。长期来看，当人民币在国际贸易和投资中扮演重要角色时，离岸市场将变成全球企业融资的平台。

As part of its efforts to popularise the renminbi, China has been gradually widening the channels for inbound portfolio investment. Funds also can be used for investment in China’s domestic market through various quota-based qualified investor programmes. The main current barrier is the overseas companies’ willingness to accept renminbi since there is still limited usage of renminbi in the offshore markets and the “recycling” channels are narrow.

为了推广人民币，中国一直在逐步拓宽入境证券组合投资的渠道。此外，通过各种基于配额的合格投资者计划，人们还能以基金为工具投资中国国内市场。目前，主要的障碍是海外企业接受人民币的意愿不大，原因是人民币在离岸市场的用途依然有限，而且“回流”渠道也很狭窄。

Last year, Beijing moved to widen channels for foreign investors to buy mainland stocks, bonds and money market instruments. The Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (RQFII) scheme – which has a quota of Rmb770bn – has been granted to Hong Kong, the UK, Singapore, France, South Korea, Germany, Canada, Australia and Qatar.

去年，中国政府着手拓宽了外国投资者购买中国内地股票、债券及货币市场工具的渠道。目前，它已在香港、英国、新加坡、法国、韩国、德国、加拿大、澳大利亚和卡塔尔推出了人民币合格境外机构投资者(RQFII)计划。

A stock connect scheme linking the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges is a new pilot program that allows for a two way investment channel which enables overseas investors to bypass those one way ‘Q’ scheme quota systems, making trading far quicker and easier.

此外，中国还推出了一个计划，将上海和香港的股市相互连通。这一新的试点计划建立了一个双向投资渠道，令境外投资者能够绕开那种单向的、带字母“Q”的配额体制（指“合格”(Qualified)一词的英文首字母——译者注），以便捷得多的方式开展交易。

We expect further expansion of these “Q” schemes – namely QFII, RQFII and QDII – and the eventual phasing out the quotas. The outflow of renminbi from the mainland and the inflow of renminbi from Hong Kong will also facilitate a healthy and significant offshore investment ecosystem for the currency and help accelerate its internationalisation.

这些带字母“Q”的计划包括合格境外机构投资者(QFII)计划、RQFII计划、以及合格境内机构投资者(QDII)计划。我们预计，这些计划会进一步扩大，最终逐步取消配额。由中国内地外流的人民币和由香港流入内地的人民币，还将有助于建立一个健康而重要的人民币离岸投资生态环境，并将有助于加快人民币的国际化。

The next phase of renminbi investment flows is likely to focus on China’s ‘going-out’ strategy. In 2013, the country’s foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows reached over $117bn, and outbound direct investment (ODI) hit a record $90bn. But while renminbi was used in around 60 per cent of FDI, it accounted for only 15 per cent of ODI.

下一阶段的人民币投资资金流，很可能会聚焦于中国的“走出去”战略。2013年，中国的外商直接投资(FDI)达到逾1170亿美元，中国的对外直接投资(ODI)则达到创纪录的900亿美元。不过，虽然FDI中大约60%的资金是人民币，ODI中的人民币资金却只占15%。

The renminbi liquidity involved in Overseas Direct Investment (ODI) and the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) schemes are not yet significant. The barrier for Chinese companies to use renminbi in overseas direct investment is not the offshore market’s limited size, but its liquidity.

目前，ODI和QDII所涉及的人民币流动性还不是很大。在ODI中，中国企业使用人民币的障碍并不是离岸市场规模有限，而是其流动性不足。

We expect the renminbi to comprise a larger share of China’s ODI over time. Beijing’s recent simplification of the procedures for outbound investment is enabling outward flows to grow further. A number of overseas mergers and acquisitions, for instance, have been accomplished with payments or capital contributions remitted in renminbi outside the mainland.

我们预计，假以时日，人民币会在中国的ODI中占据更大的份额。中国政府最近简化了对外投资手续，这为对外投资流的进一步增长提供了方便。例如，中国企业在完成一系列境外并购交易时，就是通过把人民币汇出境外来进行支付或提供认缴资本的。

But more needs to be done, not least to improve Chinese companies’ access to overseas financial markets, where the cost of funding has been significantly lower than on domestic markets for several years.

不过，要做的工作还有很多，特别是要让中国企业更容易进入境外金融市场。数年来，境外金融市场上的资金成本一直显著低于中国国内市场。

The ultimate aim of Chinese authorities in establishing offshore renminbi markets is to promote the renminbi as an international currency. To reach the status of a reserve currency, however, China needs deeper and more open financial markets; and a stable and convertible currency; which will still take some time.

中国政府建立离岸人民币市场的最终目标，是推动人民币成为国际货币。然而，要让人民币获得储备货币地位，中国就需要建立更加深厚、更加开放的金融市场，还需要确保人民币的稳定和可兑换。要做到这两点尚需时日。