About time too. This week the International Monetary Fund turned down the heat under one of the longest-simmering disputes in international economics by declaring China’s currency, the renminbi, no longer undervalued.

早就该这样了。国际货币基金组织(IMF)日前宣布，人民币币值不再被低估，给国际经济领域发酵时间最长的争议之一降了热度。

The US Treasury, which has led the campaign to brand China a currency manipulator for holding down the renminbi, unsurprisingly disagrees. But the IMF’s assessment, which echoes that from reputable independent economists, suggests that the exchange rate is no longer a major impediment to China’s long-awaited rebalancing from exports to domestic demand.

不出所料，带头给中国冠上“汇率操纵国”之名（理由是压低人民币汇率）的美国财政部并不认同这一说法。但与享有盛誉的独立经济学家结论一致的IMF评估意见表明，人民币汇率不再是外界期待已久的中国经济再平衡的一个主要障碍。

For more than a decade, pressing China to let therenminbi rise was the number one focus of US international economic policy. It tried public condemnation; it tried quiet diplomacy. It contemplated a quixotic idea, often mooted in Congress, to take Beijing to the World Trade Organisation over the issue. It tried — unwisely for the fund’s independence — to turn the IMF into a currency sheriff to go after misaligned miscreants; it tried rounding up a posse in the G20 to do the same.

10多年来，向中国施压要求人民币升值一直是美国国际经济政策的重中之重。美国试过公开谴责，也试过秘密外交，甚至考虑过一个不切实际的想法（经常有议员在国会上提起）：就汇率问题将中国诉至世界贸易组织(WTO)。它试图将IMF变成一个货币警长，去抓捕不法之徒——对于IMF的独立性来说，这样做很不明智；还试图在二十国集团(G20)中寻找志同道合者。

In the end, it is not clear that external pressure had much effect. More likely is that the internal debate within China leaned increasingly towards shifting course in its own interest. Beijing started letting the nominal exchange rate appreciate after 2005, paused it for two years during the financial crisis, and then let it resume. By 2013 the renminbi had risen enough that it was no longer a one-way bet. Since then the nominal exchange rate has behaved more normally, fluctuating in response to capital flows, while higher inflation has driven the real rate higher.

目前不清楚这些外部压力究竟产生了多大效果。事实上更有可能的是，中国国内的讨论越来越倾向于为了本国利益而改变做法。2005年后，北京方面开始允许名义汇率升值，金融危机期间暂停了两年，然后又恢复了这一进程。到2013年，人民币升值幅度之大已使投资者不再对其“单向押注”。此后，名义汇率表现得更加正常，随着资本流动状况的变化而上下浮动，同时通胀上升也推高了实际汇率。

The intervention to hold down the currency was undoubtedly a problem for China as well as for the unbalanced world economy. It kept China locked into an export-led growth model that aroused discontent about unfair competition around the world, and the impression of a one-way bet encouraged potentially destabilising inflows of capital.

通过干预来压低汇率不仅是不平衡的世界经济的问题，无疑也是中国的问题。它使中国陷入一种出口拉动型的增长模式，引起了世界各地对不公平竞争的不满，而且单向押注的想法鼓励了潜在破坏稳定的资本流入。

A stronger renminbi will not by itself cure all the imbalances in China’s economy. As the IMF points out, China still has a large current account deficit related more to over-saving than to the exchange rate. It also has to cope with a large build-up of domestic debt. Still, by making imports cheaper, the stronger exchange rate should help to ease the much-heralded shift from an export-investment model of growth to one based more on consumption.

单靠人民币升值不会治愈中国经济中存在的所有失衡。正如IMF所指出的，中国仍存在巨大的经常账户赤字，但这更多地与过度储蓄有关，而非汇率。中国还须应对大量累积的国内债务。不过，人民币升值使进口商品变得更便宜，应该有助于使中国更容易推进大肆宣传的、从出口-投资驱动的增长模式向消费驱动模式的转型。

China has a particular incentive to move further towards a freely floating exchange rate. Under active discussion is the renminbi’s possible inclusion in the Special Drawing Right, a basket of currencies forming the basis of a class of reserve assets that the IMF’s member countries can create among themselves. In reality, unless a large market in privately issued SDR assets starts up, the renminbi’s inclusion will make little practical difference. But since being “freely usable” is a criterion for membership in the SDR basket, it will be a symbolic imprimatur of respectability.

在进一步走向自由浮动汇率方面，中国有自己特别的动机。人民币被纳入特别提款权(SDR)——构成IMF成员国储备资产基础的一篮子货币——的可能性正在被积极讨论。事实上，除非私下发行的特别提款权资产形成一个大市场，否则，人民币被纳入特别提款权货币篮子不会有多大实际差别。但由于可以“自由使用”是加入该货币篮子的一个标准，这将是对人民币地位的象征性认可。

With China still using capital controls and intervening in currency markets on a tactical basis, the IMF’s members should be careful not to bestow that accolade prematurely.

由于中国仍在有策略地利用资本管制手段并干预汇率市场，IMF成员国应该保持谨慎，不要过早地授予中国这一荣誉。

The IMF’s assessment ought to dampen down the calls in the US Congress for punishing Beijing for alleged manipulation, though they are highly unlikely to go away altogether. But for China itself, the rise in the renminbi, while very welcome, is only one stage in the process of reorienting its economy in a more sustainable direction. China is, finally, heading down the right path. But it has taken a long time to get here and there is a way to go yet.

IMF的评估应该会减少美国国会以操纵汇率为由要求惩罚北京的呼声，尽管这种声音不大可能完全消失。但对中国自身而言，人民币升值（虽然很受欢迎）只是中国经济转向更可持续发展这个进程中的一个阶段。中国终于走上了正确的道路。但中国花了很长的时间才做到这一点，而且未来的路还很长。