How long can a country that represents less than 5 per cent of the world’s population and 22 per cent of the global economy, remain the world’s dominant military and

美国人口不到世界的5%，经济占全球的22%，军事和政治实力均处于世界主导地位，然而这一地位还能维持多久？在中东、东欧和太平洋地区，人们日益急切地问出了这个问题。

political power? That question is being asked with increasing urgency in the Middle East, eastern Europe and the Pacific Ocean.

自冷战结束后，美军压倒性的实力成了全球政治中的核心事实。现在，在上述三个关键地区，美军实力正经受考验——美国的竞争对手们正在试探其决心，而美国则在考虑要不要以及何时回击。

Since the cold war ended, the overwhelming power of the US military has been the central fact of global politics. Now, in three crucial regions, that power is being tested — as America’s rivals test its resolve and the US considers when and whether to push back.

看看上周英国《金融时报》的三则报道，报道一：“美国警告俄罗斯勿升级在叙军事行动”；报道二：“美军舰将驶入南中国海中国人工岛12海里内水域”；报道三是英国同意与美德一起向波罗的海国家派军。

Consider three stories that appeared in the Financial Times last week. Story one: “US warns Moscow not to escalate military operation in Syria”. Story two: “US warships to challenge Chinese claims in South China Sea ”. Story three was that Britain had agreed to join the US and Germany in posting troops to the Baltic states.

这些事件发生在全球不同地区，但它们互相关联。美国的军事实力保障着世界各地的边境。在中东，美国拥有庞大的海军和空军基地，既安抚盟友，又震慑对手。在东亚，美国海军早已习惯把太平洋当成“美国内湖”，保障航行自由，让盟国感到安心。在欧洲，北约(Nato)保障着成员国的领土完整，而北约75%的军费开支是美国掏的。

These events are taking place in different parts of the world — but they are connected. It is US military might that guarantees borders all over the world. In the Middle East the US has giant naval and airbases, which are there to reassure friends and to intimidate rivals. In east Asia, the US navy has grown used to treating the Pacific as an “American lake”, guaranteeing freedom of navigation and providing reassurance to its allies. In Europe, Nato guarantees the territorial integrity of its member states — and the US accounts for 75 per cent of Nato’s military spending.

但形势正在起变化。俄罗斯对叙利亚内战的干预，凸显继阿拉伯之春以及美国从伊拉克撤军之后，美国对中东地区的控制力的丧失程度。由于美国不愿再向中东派遣地面部队，莫斯科方面注意到了该地区的权力真空，趁机填补。通过往叙利亚发射巡航导弹，俄罗斯甚至颇有嘲弄意味地效仿了此前美国对该地区的军事干预方式。

But things are changing. Russian intervention in the Syrian civil war has underlined the extent to which the US has lost control of the Middle East, following the upheavals of the Arab spring and America’s withdrawal of troops from Iraq. With the US reluctant to put boots on the ground in the Middle East again, Moscow noted a power vacuum and has moved to fill it. By firing cruise missiles into Syria, the Russians even staged a mocking emulation of previous US military interventions in the region.

在欧洲，俄罗斯去年从乌克兰夺走了克里米亚，这是二战结束后欧洲大陆上第一次出现强行吞并领土事件。不出所料，曾隶属苏联的波罗的海国家非常担忧这会是个先例，因此北约决定加强在该地区军事力量。

In Europe, Russia’s seizure of Crimea from Ukraine last year represented the first forcible annexation of territory on the continent since the end of the second world war. Unsurprisingly, the Baltic states, which were once part of the Soviet Union, are very worried by the precedent — hence Nato’s decision to

在亚洲，中国将其在南中国海的人工岛建设计划在过去一年里付诸了行动，将北京方面对离中国海岸线数千英里远的领海主张转化成实实在在的、更具体的东西。美国表示对中国与邻国的领土争端抱中立态度，但决心保护太平洋的航行自由。美国海军显然决定要对中国已在新建人工岛屿周围确立领海的观念提出挑战。

reinforce its military presence there.

这三起争端无不提醒人们，尽管“无国界世界”的话题一度流行，但对领土的控制仍是世界政治的根本。正如前英国外交官罗伯特•库珀爵士(Sir Robert Cooper)所说：“世界秩序就是领土秩序。如果你不知道领土为谁所有，你就对国际秩序一无所知。”布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)的托马斯•赖特(Thomas Wright)发表了类似观点，他认为国际政治稳定依赖于“健康的地区秩序，尤其是欧洲和东亚的地区秩序。如果这些地区分崩离析，全球秩序就再也无法维护。”

In Asia, China’s island-building programme in the South China Sea has taken shape in the past year, transforming Beijing’s theoretical claim to territorial waters thousands of miles from its coast into something that is (literally) more concrete. America says it takes no position on China’s territorial disputes with its neighbours but that it is determined to protect freedom of navigation in the Pacific. Hence the US Navy’s apparent decision to challenge the idea that China has established territorial waters around its new artificial islands.

欧洲和东亚并未“分崩离析”，但也是很不稳定。与此同时，中东地区的确正在分崩离析的前景进一步令欧洲和亚洲都感到不安，因为这使得美国的实力以及国际边界的持久性遭到质疑。就连美国国内一些长期主张美国应将外交政策重点重新转向亚洲、减少在中东的作为的战略家现在也改变了看法，认为关于美国从中东撤退的认知正在破坏美国在亚洲的声誉。

All three disputes are a reminder

巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)领导的政府在国内外都面临很大压力，要求其通过更强有力地回应这些领土挑战来恢复美国实力强大的形象。派遣军舰通过中国宣称拥有主权的海域以及向波罗的海部署军队的决定就是在此种压力下做出的回应。但奥巴马仍然很清楚，美国近期在伊拉克和利比亚的军事干预可能会造成反效果，同时他也对与俄罗斯或中国军事对抗的风险保持适度谨慎。

that, despite voguish talk of a “borderless world”, the control of territory is still fundamental to world politics. As Sir Robert Cooper, a former British diplomat puts it: “World orders are territorial orders. If you don’t know who owns territory, you don’t know anything about international order.” Thomas Wright of the Brookings Institution makes a similar point when he argues that international political stability is dependent on “healthy regional orders, especially in Europe and east Asia. If these regions fall apart, nothing will save the global order.”

关于世界政治中何者是“修正主义”强国的争论使局势进一步复杂化。美国将俄罗斯和中国的领土主张视为对世界秩序的挑战。而俄罗斯称，在乌克兰、叙利亚等国支持“政权更迭”的美国才是全球秩序真正的破坏者。

Europe and east Asia are not “falling apart” but they are fraying at the edges. Meanwhile, the vision of a Middle East that really is falling apart is further unsettling both Europe and Asia by

虽然俄罗斯的指责中有宣传的成分，但北京和莫斯科似乎也都真的担心，除非他们对美国强权进行反击，否则的话，他们最终也可能沦为美国支持的政权更迭的受害者。而美国人担心的是，如果放任“领土修正主义”扩散的话，随着自身在全球的实力减弱，世界将变得更加混乱和危险。

raising questions about US power and the durability of international borders. Even some American strategists who have long argued the US should “rebalance” its foreign policy towards Asia and do less in the Middle East are now having second thoughts, believing that

把这些担忧归总到一起，你就能找出当前世界各地正在爆发的危险地区争端的解决办法。

a perception of US retreat in the Middle East is undermining US prestige in Asia.