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打击“以数谋私”导致中国统计数据空白

发布者: sunny214 | 发布时间: 2016-5-4 19:49| 查看数: 616| 评论数: 0|

A crackdown on the sale of data from China’s sprawling statistics agencies has prompted a marked deterioration in the numbers investors rely on to understand the world’s second-largest economy.

打击中国庞大的统计机构出售数据的行动,已导致投资者赖以了解这个世界第二大经济体的数据明显恶化。

Executives searching for figures on China’s petroleum exports or wind power output have noticed growing gaps in the numbers, with some data released later than expected or missing entirely. That has made it harder to assess the state of the broader economy and the many industries where the country has become the dominant producer or buyer of raw materials.

搜寻有关中国石油出口或风力发电量数据的高管们,已经注意到相关数据的空白越来越大,有些数据的发布时间迟于预期,甚至完全缺失。这加大了评估整体经济和一些主要行业(中国在这些行业已成为占主导地位的生产者或原材料买家)状态的难度。

“It will quickly become an issue if it continues,” one oil trader at a non-

“再这样下去,很快会变成一个问题,”一家外国国有石油公司的石油交易员表示,“我们可以用船舶跟踪数据试图把握中国石油行业的动态,但这么做永远不会像实际数据那么准确。”

Chinese state oil company said. “We can use ship-tracking to try and get a handle on what’s happening in China’s oil sector, but it’s never as accurate compared to the actual data.”

这些数据空白是在六个月前中国令人畏惧的反腐败机构——中央纪委对国家统计局(NBS)展开调查后出现的。国家统计局局长已在2月份被撤换。

The gaps appeared after China’s feared corruption watchdog, the Central Committee for Disciplinary Inspection, began a probe into the National Bureau of Statistics six months ago. The bureau’s head was removed in February.

很大一部分最详尽的信息并不公开发布,而是由国家统计局各部门出售给新闻机构、银行、咨询公司或其他各方。

Much of the most detailed information is not published publicly but is sold to news agencies, banks, consultancies or other parties by NBS departments.

尽管中国的经济数据长期被批评为容易受到政治干预的影响,但北京方面对于中国在大宗商品市场不断加大的影响力及其对原材料定价的支配地位十分敏感。中国有关部门正试图抑制大宗商品期货投机交易,近几周这轮井喷式行情影响了从铁矿石到棉花的多种大宗商品的市场。

While China’s economic data have long been criticised for being too open to political interference, Beijing is sensitive to the country’s growing clout in commodity markets and its sway over the pricing of raw materials. Chinese authorities are trying to curb a burst of speculative trading in commodities futures, which has influenced markets from iron ore to cotton in recent weeks.

中纪委上周宣布,已对国家统计局313名“以数谋私”的官员作出处分。该机构禁止官员们从统计数据“收取任何稿费、编审费、劳务费”。

The CCDI last week said it was disciplining 313 NBS officials for “profiting from statistics”. It barred officials from “receiving royalties, editorial fees or labour fees” from statistics data.

伦敦咨询公司Energy Aspects的米沙尔•美丹(Michal Meidan)表示,集中发布数据的尝试可能导致进一步混乱。“惧怕受到惩处意味着,许多此前出售数据的其他渠道可能被关闭,因此未来几个月来自中国的数据可能不那么及时,”美丹表示。

Michal Meidan, at consultancy Energy Aspects in London, said attempts to centralise data releases may lead to further disruption. “The fear of a crackdown means that a number of other outlets that have sold data may be shut down, so numbers coming out of China might be less timely in the coming months,” Ms Meidan said.

“但从长远来说,这一打击是北京方面遏制腐败和提高透明度整体努力的一部分,最终可能带来未来更可靠的数据。”

“But in the longer term this crackdown is part of Beijing’s wider attempts to limit corruption and increase transparency, which may ultimately lead to more reliable data in the future.”

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