Good afternoon.

下午好

If you have followed diplomatic news in the past weeks, you may have heard of a kind of crisis between China and the U.S.

如果你关注 前几个星期的国际新闻， 你可能已经听说了 中美之间的紧张关系

regarding cyberattacks against the American company Google.

与网络攻击有关

Many things have been said about this.

受攻击的是美国的谷歌公司 众说纷纭

Some people have called a cyberwar what may actually be just a spy operation -- and obviously, a quite mishandled one.

有人说这是网络战争 其实很可能只是 一个间谍活动 而且很明显是一个失败的活动

However, this episode reveals the growing anxiety in the Western world regarding these emerging cyber weapons.

总之，这个事件说明了 对于这些层出不穷的网络武器 西方社会的担忧有增无减

It so happens that these weapons are dangerous.

这些武器很危险

They're of a new nature: they could lead the world into a digital conflict that could turn into an armed struggle.

它们有个新的共性 就是带给世界 数码冲突 甚至能演变成真的武力冲突

These virtual weapons can also destroy the physical world.

这些虚拟的武器也能够摧毁真实的世界

In 1982, in the middle of the Cold War in Soviet Siberia, a pipeline exploded with a burst of 3 kilotons,

一九八二年在冷战的中期 西伯利亚 一条天然气管道爆炸，三千吨的爆炸量

the equivalent of a fourth of the Hiroshima bomb.

相当于四分之一广岛核弹的威力

Now we know today -- this was revealed by Thomas Reed, Ronald Reagan's former U.S.

汤玛斯.瑞德是美国总统里根任期的美国空军部长 通过他的报道 我们得知 这次爆炸

Air Force Secretary -- this explosion was actually the result of a CIA sabotage operation,

其实是 美国中央情报局一次蓄意行动的结果

in which they had managed to infiltrate the IT management systems of that pipeline.

他们想办法 侵入了天然气管道的 计算机管理系统

More recently, the U.S.

最近，美国

government revealed that in September 2008, more than 3 million people in the state of Espirito Santo in Brazil were plunged into darkness,

政府披露了 在二零零八年九月，多过三百万人口 在巴西圣埃斯皮里图州 经历的大规模停电

victims of a blackmail operation from cyber pirates.

也是网络黑客的杰作

Even more worrying for the Americans, in December 2008 the holiest of holies, the IT systems of CENTCOM,

更令美国担忧的是 二零零八年十二月 中央司令部的核心的电脑系统

the central command managing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, may have been infiltrated by hackers who used these: plain but infected USB keys.

负责对阿富汗和伊拉克战争 进行中央控制的系统 也被黑客侵入了 他们使用的是 看似空白但是已被感染的USB设备

And with these keys, they may have been able to get inside CENTCOM's systems, to see and hear everything, and maybe even infect some of them.

通过这些USB设备，他们能 进入中央控制系统里 得到所有信息 甚至能够改变一些信息 结果是，

As a result, the Americans take the threat very seriously.

美国对这些威胁反应很大

I'll quote General James Cartwright, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,

按照詹姆斯.卡特瑞特将军的说法

who says in a report to Congress that cyberattacks could be as powerful as weapons of mass destruction.

他是参谋长联会的副主席 他在对国会的报告中说 网络攻击具有 和强大的武器一样的摧毁力量 更进一步，

Moreover, the Americans have decided to spend over 30 billion dollars in the next five years to build up their cyberwar capabilities.

美国政府决定 在未来五年内 花三十亿美元 来加强它们的网络力量

And across the world today, we see a sort of cyber arms race, with cyberwar units built up by countries like North Korea or even Iran.

放眼今天的世界 我们能看到关于网络武力的竞争 一些网络战争， 从一些国家比如朝鲜 或者伊朗

Yet, what you'll never hear from spokespeople from the Pentagon or the French Department of Defence is that the question isn't really who's the enemy,

同时，从美国国防部 或者法国国防部发言人的口中 你绝对不会听到 这个问题并非关于 谁是敌人

but actually the very nature of cyber weapons.

而是关于网络战争的特性

And to understand why, we must look at how, through the ages, military technologies have maintained or destroyed world peace.

要理解这一点，我们必须看看 这些年来，军事技术 是怎么维持，或者摧毁 世界和平的

For example, if we'd had TEDxParis 350 years ago,

打个比方 假如我们在三百五十年前 开这个TED巴黎会

we would have talked about the military innovation of the day -- the massive Vauban-style fortifications -- and we could have predicted a period of stability in the world or in Europe.

我们可能会谈大规模沃邦式防御堡垒 这样的军事创新 我们由此预测 世界或欧洲会有一段和平时期 那段时期的情况也确实如此

which was indeed the case in Europe between 1650 and 1750.

在1650年和1750年之间 欧洲确有一段和平时期

Similarly, if we'd had this talk 30 or 40 years ago, we would have seen how the rise of nuclear weapons,

同样，如果我们 在三十或者四十年前，我们会看到 核武器的发展

and the threat of mutually assured destruction they imply, prevents a direct fight between the two superpowers.

和他们带来的相互威胁 事实上防止了两个军事强国间的直接的战争

However, if we'd had this talk 60 years ago, we would have seen how the emergence of new aircraft and tank technologies,

但是如果我们在六十年前谈这个 我们会看到 新式飞机和坦克的技术

which give the advantage to the attacker, make the Blitzkrieg doctrine very credible and thus create the possibility of war in Europe.

这些技术给了进攻一方 很大的优势来进行闪电式攻击 从而给了欧洲大战的机会

So military technologies can influence the course of the world, can make or break world peace -- and there lies the issue with cyber weapons.

所以军事技术 能够影响世界的秩序 能够维持或者破坏世界的和平 网络武器也有这些问题

The first issue: Imagine a potential enemy announcing they're building a cyberwar unit, but only for their country's defense.

第一个问题是 想象如果一个可能的敌人宣布 他们在制造一个网络战争的设备 但是仅仅用来防御

Okay, but what distinguishes it from an offensive unit?

但是这个设备又和 进攻性的武器有什么区别呢？

It gets even more complicated when the doctrines of use become ambiguous.

问题变得更加复杂 当我们没有一个对使用方法的规定

Just 3 years ago, both the U.S.

三年前，美国

and France were saying they were investing militarily in cyberspace, strictly to defend their IT systems.

和法国 同时说它们在投资网络军事 但是仅仅是为了防御

But today both countries say the best defense is to attack.

但是今天，两个国家都说 最好的防御就是先攻击

And so, they're joining China, whose doctrine of use for 15 years has been both defensive and offensive.

就这样他们就像是中国 中国在过去的十五年来 用网络同时防御和进攻

The second issue: Your country could be under cyberattack with entire regions plunged into total darkness,

第二个问题是 你的国家可能会被进攻 从而整个区域断电

and you may not even know who's attacking you.

你都不会知道 谁攻击了你

Cyber weapons have this peculiar feature: they can be used without leaving traces.

网络武器有个特征 使用网络武器 可以不留痕迹

This gives a tremendous advantage to the attacker, because the defender doesn't know who to fight back against.

这就给了进攻的人很大的优势 因为防御者 不知道怎么反攻

And if the defender retaliates against the wrong adversary, they risk making one more enemy and ending up diplomatically isolated.

如果防御者选错了反击对象 他们便面临再加一个敌人的危险 可能会被外交隔离起来

This issue isn't just theoretical.

这是个很现实的问题

In May 2007, Estonia was the victim of cyberattacks, that damaged its communication and banking systems.

在二零零七年五月，爱沙尼亚受网络攻击 通信和银行系统 受到了影响

Estonia accused Russia.

他们怀疑俄国

But NATO, though it defends Estonia, reacted very prudently.

但是北大西洋公约组织，虽然在维护爱沙尼亚 他们的反应还是很保守。

Why?

为什么呢？

Because NATO couldn't be 100% sure that the Kremlin was indeed behind these attacks.

因为北大西洋公约组织也不能百分之百的确定 到底是不是俄罗斯在背后搞鬼。

So to sum up, on the one hand, when a possible enemy announces they're building a cyberwar unit, you don't know whether it's for attack or defense.

总而言之，一方面 当可能的敌人宣布 他们在建一个网络战争的设备时 你不知道这是为了进攻 还是防御

On the other hand, we know that these weapons give an advantage to attacking.

另一方面 我们知道这种武器是对进攻一方有利的

In a major article published in 1978,

在一九七八年发表的一篇论文中

Professor Robert Jervis of Columbia University in New York described a model to understand how conflicts could arise.

纽约哥伦比亚大学的罗伯特 哲维斯教授 描述了一个模型来帮助理解就网络战争而言 冲突是怎么产生的

In this context, when you don't know if the potential enemy is preparing for defense or attack, and if the weapons give an advantage to attacking,

当你不知道敌人是在 准备防御还是进攻时 如果这个武器是有利于进攻的

then this environment is most likely to spark a conflict.

这个气氛就是 要起冲突了

This is the environment that's being created by cyber weapons today, and historically it was the environment in Europe at the onset of World War I.

这个环境是 今天网络武器创造的 历史上这就是欧洲的环境 在一次大战开始的时候

So cyber weapons are dangerous by nature, but in addition, they're emerging in a much more unstable environment.

所以网络武器 本质上是危险的 但是另一方面，它们也 是在一个很不稳定的环境下产生的

If you remember the Cold War, it was a very hard game, but a stable one played only by two players,

如果你记得冷战时期 那是个非常困难的游戏 但是是个稳定的游戏，仅仅是两方在对峙

which allowed for some coordination between the two superpowers.

这样两方之间就有一些调剂

Today we're moving to a multipolar world in which coordination is much more complicated, as we have seen at Copenhagen.

今天我们来到了一个群雄逐鹿的世界 想调剂变得很复杂 就像我们在哥本哈根所见

And this coordination may become even trickier with the introduction of cyber weapons.

调剂会变得更加复杂 当我们有了网路武器

Why?

为什么？

Because no nation knows for sure whether its neighbor is about to attack.

因为没有一个国家 能确定地知道它的邻居 是不是将要进攻了

So nations may live under the threat of what Nobel Prize winner Thomas Schelling called the "reciprocal fear of surprise attack,"

所以所有国家都活在危机中 正如诺贝尔奖得主汤玛斯.斯考林所说 对突袭的相互恐惧

as I don't know if my neighbor is about to attack me or not -- I may never know -- so I might take the upper hand and attack first.

就像是我不知道我的邻居 会不会攻击我 我可能永远也不知道 所以我就先下手为强 抢先进攻

Just last week, in a New York Times article dated January 26, 2010,

就在上一周 纽约时报在2010年1月26号 独家报道了

it was revealed for the first time that officials at the National Security Agency were considering the possibility of preemptive attacks in cases where the U.S.

国家安全局的高层 考虑了抢先进攻的可能

was about to be cyberattacked.

以防万一美国 遭到攻击

And these preemptive attacks might not just remain in cyberspace.

这些抢先进攻 可能不仅仅局限在 在网络世界里

In May 2009, General Kevin Chilton, commander of the U.S.

在2009年5月，凯文.切尔顿将军

nuclear forces, stated that in the event of cyberattacks against the U.S., all options would be on the table.

美国核武力的指挥官 宣布如果美国受网络攻击 美国可能会采取任何应对行动

Cyber weapons do not replace conventional or nuclear weapons -- they just add a new layer to the existing system of terror.

网络攻击不能取代 传统武器或者是核武器 它们在已有的危险上另加了一层

But in doing so, they also add their own risk of triggering a conflict -- as we've just seen,

但是就这样，它们同时也加了一层危险 可能会激发冲突 我们已经看到过了，

a very important risk -- and a risk we may have to confront with a collective security solution which includes all of us: European allies,

非常大的危险 我们可能得要 用集体的安全网 来对付这个危险 包括欧洲盟友，

NATO members, our American friends and allies, our other Western allies, and maybe, by forcing their hand a little, our Russian and Chinese partners.

北大西洋公约组织的成员 我们的美国朋友和盟友 其他的西方盟友 甚至，可能要加点压力 给我们的俄国和中国伙伴

The information technologies Joël de Rosnay was talking about, which were historically born from military research,

那些乔.德.如斯纳所说的 信息技术 历史上从军事研究中发展出来的

are today on the verge of developing an offensive capability of destruction, which could tomorrow, if we're not careful,

今天开始有了 摧毁的力量 未来，我们一不小心

completely destroy world peace.

就可能会毁灭整个世界

Thank you.

谢谢大家

(Applause)

（掌声）