A state visit in Chinese eyes, but not in America's. Don't expect a love-in
“VERY positive and complex.” That is how George Bush ambivalently characterised his country's relations with
China this week. When his counterpart, Hu Jintao, pays his first presidential visit to the White House on April 20th,
Mr Bush will struggle to manage a relationship that many in Washington view more simply as negative. The two
leaders are anxious to avoid letting their disputes seriously damage ties. But much will depend on how they
manage opinion at home.
This is a particularly sensitive time. The approach of America's mid-term elections in November is encouraging both
Democrats and Republicans to play to voters' concerns about the threat China's rapid economic rise is said to pose
to American jobs. The administration wants China to help check the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea.
China wants America to restrain Taiwan, where the approach of presidential elections in 2008 is already
threatening to whip up new turbulence in the island's uneasy relationship with the mainland. Neither side thinks
the other is delivering enough.
Mr Hu is especially keen for this visit, his first to Washington since he became Communist Party chief in 2002 and
president in 2003, to establish his credentials at home as a statesman. He should have gone last September, but
the trip was blown off course by Hurricane Katrina. However, Mr Bush, anxious not to appear too friendly with a
country that so many Americans view with suspicion, is not laying out the full red carpet. Chinese officials insist on
calling this a state visit. The White House is not using that level of protocol. State visits involve a formal dinner; Mr
Hu will only be given lunch.
Such niceties are important to Mr Hu. Like Mr Bush, he is under pressure at home. The party is beginning to gear
up for its five-yearly congress next year and Mr Hu needs all the authority he can muster to ensure that he
succeeds in placing his protégés in key positions. As in America's Congress, there is growing anxiety in China about
the impact of globalisation. Mr Hu wants to look strong in the presence of Mr Bush. This means not appearing to
capitulate to America's trade demands.
But Mr Hu is making conciliatory gestures. China does not want a trade war that could damage its biggest overseas
market. To help reduce America's record trade deficit with China, valued by the Americans at $202 billion last year
(see chart), a Chinese delegation last week embarked on a buying tour in America that is expected to result in
some $15 billion-worth of deals. As part of this, on April 11th, China signed a deal agreeing to buy 80 Boeing
planes worth $4.6 billion, and said it would resume buying American beef, banned since 2003 because of mad-cow
fears.

In response to American concerns about rampant violations of
intellectual-property rights in China, the Chinese authorities have staged
a show of resolve in recent weeks. Some shops in Beijing selling pirated
DVDs have been closed. Banners have appeared on the streets urging
citizens not to buy them. In late March the government ordered
computer manufacturers to pre-load licensed operating-system software
onto machines to prevent retailers using pirated versions.
Such shows of goodwill are unlikely to have much impact. Mr Bush has
urged Mr Hu to use his visit to make some announcement on China's
undervalued currency. But there is little likelihood that Mr Hu will say
anything important about this. In recent weeks, China has allowed the
yuan to appreciate a little more quickly, but shows no desire to take the
big steps demanded by those American politicians who argue that it is
as much as 40% undervalued. Mr Hu's primary concern is about
stability at home, and a rapid revaluation would threaten this.
Fortunately for him, Mr Bush, unlike some members of Congress,
appears disinclined to take up cudgels. The release of a Treasury report,
which could accuse China of manipulating its currency, has been
delayed until after the visitor leaves. Even in Congress cooler heads
might still prevail. Last month two senators withdrew a bill that threatened 27.5% tariffs on Chinese imports if
China failed to revalue its currency by a large margin.
Other fence-mending exercises are under way. Mr Hu's officials have responded with a show of enthusiasm to the
Bush administration's suggestions, first made last year, that China's role in the world should be one of “responsible
stakeholder”. China likes to draw attention to its mediating role in efforts to persuade North Korea to give up its
nuclear-weapons programme. It tried to take advantage of a private forum in Tokyo this week, which senior North
Korean and American officials attended, to persuade North Korea to resume negotiations. But these efforts
appeared unsuccessful. Likewise, China says the Iranian nuclear dispute should be resolved without sanctions or
force. But it has not publicly threatened to use its UN veto to block any American attempt to escalate pressure on
Iran.
In recent months, China has even shown tentative signs of wanting progress in talks with representatives of the
Dalai Lama and of the Vatican. Few expect breakthroughs soon. But in a gesture clearly aimed at pleasing Mr Bush,
China last month allowed a Tibetan nun who had been imprisoned for 14 years for her outspoken support of the
Dalai Lama to go to America for medical treatment. Still, Mr Hu has shown no real willingness to ease his
suppression of dissent. Worried that rapid economic and social change could trigger instability, he is tightening
controls. Mr Bush recently described China as a “big opportunity for democracy”. On this, Mr Hu will disappoint
him.