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中国食品通胀压力令人头疼

发布者: katy | 发布时间: 2010-5-31 16:24| 查看数: 1342| 评论数: 0|

Food, glorious food? In China, policy makers may not be thinking about their stomachs so much as the headache food prices are causing.食品,光荣的食品?在中国,随着食品价格大幅上扬成为令人头疼的问题,政策制定者对自己吃什么的关心可能相比之下要小得多。

Sharp gains in food prices recently have driven Chinese inflation: In April, as the consumer price index rose 2.8% on-year, food prices rose 5.9%. The weighting of food in the CPI basket is around 33%, so these gains are a crucial factor. 近期中国食品价格急剧上涨推升通胀数据:4月份消费者价格指数(CPI)年比上扬2.8%,食品价格上升5.9%。CPI构成中食品权重约为33%,因而食品价格上涨是个关键因素。

The jury's now out as to whether this will remain a problem. While there's been moderation in the price of some foodstuffs, strong demand in China's economy could keep the food-price bandwagon rolling -- adding further to the case for tighter monetary policy. 目前需要开始判断这是否会持续成为一个问题。尽管某些粮食的价格涨幅一直较缓和,但中国经济的强劲需求可能使食品价格不断上扬,使得采取更为紧缩的货币政策的可能性增加。

Already there have been signs of some jitters. Poor weather contributed to a 10.7% on-year rise in grain prices in April. In response, state-owned agricultural company Cofco has been buying corn from the U.S. at levels not seen in a decade. 不安的信号已经出现。恶劣的天气使得4月份粮食价格年比上涨10.7%。国有农业公司中粮集团有限公司(COFCO)持续大量从美国购入谷物,已达近10年未出现过的水平。

Other indicators suggest food-price inflation could yet be contained. Pork prices, the main contributor to overall food-price levels, have been steady, with overall meat and poultry prices falling on-year. Ting Lu, China economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, says vegetable prices are now dropping after a long period of steady gains. Garlic, for example, is 35% cheaper than its peak in April, having risen nearly sixfold in the past year. 另外一些指标显示食品价格通胀仍可控制。猪肉价格这个总体食品价格的主要构成因素保持稳定,整体肉禽价格年比呈现下滑。美国银行/美林证券的中国经济学家陆挺说,蔬菜价格在长期稳定上扬后目前出现下滑。如去年疯涨近六倍的大蒜价格已由4月份时的峰值下滑35%。

Faced by such conflicting indicators, economic policy makers--not just in China--often downplay the effect of food prices. After all it's difficult to compensate for food-price shocks caused by the elements. 面对如此自相矛盾的各种指标数据,政策制订者通常对食品价格的影响忽略不计,这种情况并非中国独有。毕竟很难消除因恶劣天气引发的食品价格震荡。

Still, there's evidence food prices aren't immune to policy changes: They rise along with other prices when demand becomes excessive, as rising incomes and economic security spur consumers to spend more on food, as with any other component of the inflation basket. That, in turn, means policy makers can help tame inflationary pressure from food, rather than assuming it's all in the lap of the gods. 但有证据表明食品价格并非不受政策变化影响。收入不断提高及经济安全增加会促使消费者增加食品方面的支出,当需求过度时,食品价格与其它价格一起上扬,正如CPI通胀构成中的其它成分一样。从另一方面说,这也意味着政策制订者可以采取措施减轻食品通胀压力,而非认为其是完全难以掌控的。

It's another reason Beijing should start winding down the economic feast. 这也是中国政府应开始逐步结束经济刺激盛宴的另一个原因。

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