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台北人也买不起房Taiwan Wrestles With Burgeoning Housing Bubble

发布者: katy | 发布时间: 2010-12-22 14:20| 查看数: 1238| 评论数: 0|

Shanghai, Beijing and Hong Kong aren't the only cities in the greater China region contending with politically problematic property bubbles. Housing prices are becoming a headache for authorities in Taipei, as well.

While property prices on the rest of the island are fairly manageable, prices in Taipei and surrounds have taken off, with home prices rising 9.13% on-year in the second quarter of the year. The average home price is now more than 11 times the annual household income of an average person.

That is partly because Xinbei City, the area surrounding Taipei and Taiwan's largest metropolitan area by population, is filled with people who have moved there to work in Taipei.

There are both economic and political implications: The property price boom will feed through to the broader economy in some measure via inflation. And in 18 months, when presidential elections roll around, many of Xinbei City's 3.9 million residents and Taipei's 2.6 million residents--in total more than one quarter of Taiwan's population--may vent their anger at the ballot box over declining home affordability.

For the Kuomintang-led government, those issues will color its reaction to the property boom.

So far, the pace of interest rate hikes and tighter rules on mortgage lending lack the fire-power needed to bring property prices down sharply.

But bring out the big guns, like aggressive rate hikes, capital controls or strong administrative steps, and the government could damage the broader economy at a time when demand is still fragile. That in turn could draw an electoral backlash potentially bigger than a backlash over high property prices.

Given the large amount of liquidity heading into emerging market economies right now, some analysts argue it's wiser not to fight the bubble. The more pragmatic path, they say, would be to keep a bubble in check to prevent a spillover effect on property prices elsewhere in Taiwan. The central bank is widely expected to raise the benchmark discount rate another 12.5 basis points to 1.625% later this month; it raised rates 12.5 basis points each in June and October. The government is also considering imposing a tax on properties sold within a year they are bought and possibly another tax on gains from selling luxury apartments, and the measures could be launched as early as the first half of 2011.

Managing a bubble via such moderate action would be important. Around 40% of Taiwan's bank loans are property-related, the Asian Development Bank says. Allowing a bubble to balloon or burst suddenly could hurt banks and the wider economy. Take the case of Hong Kong: Its property prices have been rising for years, buoyed by funds from mainland China. Authorities have rolled out various measures but shied away from aggressive action that could have widespread economic side-effects.

Taipei's predicament isn't much different.

上海、北京和香港并非大中华区域内唯一同引发政治问题的资产泡沫抗争的几座城市。对台北的政府部门而言,房价同样正成为令他们头疼的问题。

尽管岛内其他地区的房地产价格处于适度可控的范围内,但台北及其周边地区的房价却是大幅上涨,今年第二季度的房价同比上涨了9.13%。目前的平均房价比一个普通人家庭年收入的十一倍还多。

这在某种程度上是因为新北市聚集了大量为在台北上班而搬到此地的人。新北市环绕着台北,是台湾人口最多的城市。

这带来了经济和政治上的双重影响:房价飙升将通过通货膨胀在一定程度上渗透到宏观经济中。18个月后,当台湾迎来“总统”大选时,新北市390万民众和台北市260万居民中的许多人──加起来超过台湾总人口的四分之一──也许会因为越来越买不起房子而将愤怒发泄到投票箱中。

对国民党领导的台湾政府来说,这些问题将影响它对房地产繁荣发展 的应对措施。

目前为止,加息的步伐和收紧抵押贷款规定缺乏令房地产价格大幅下跌所需要具备的“火力”。

可是如果动用“重型武器”,如进行更大力度的加息、资本控制或是推出强有力的行政举措,政府将会在需求依然疲弱之时损害整体经济。这相反会对选举产生负面影响,而这种负面影响也许比房价高企所产生的负面作用更加严重。

鉴于眼下正有大量流动资金进入新兴市场经济体,一些分析人士认为不去打击房产泡沫是一种更加明智的做法。他们说,更实际的办法是控制泡沫,防止对台湾其他地区的房价产生溢出效应。人们普遍预计台湾央行本月晚些时候将把基准贴现率再度提高12.5个基点,至1.625%;它曾在6月份和10月份时分别加息12.5个基点。台湾政府也考虑对购买一年之内出售的房产征税,也许还在考虑另一项针对出售豪华公寓所得的征税方案,这些举措最早将在2011年上半年实施。

通过这类温和的行动来管理泡沫具有重要的意义。亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)说,台湾大约40%的银行贷款都与房产有关。让泡沫膨胀或是突然破裂将会使银行和整体经济受到打击。以香港为例:受中国大陆的资金推动,香港房地产价格数年来不断上涨。政府部门推出了各种各样的措施,但却避免采取可能对经济产生大范围副作用的过激举动。

台北的尴尬处境没有太大不同。

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