Sen. John McCain has all but closed the gap with Sen. Barack Obama, underscoring how international crises -- and some well-placed negative ads -- have boosted the prospects of the Republican presidential candidate.
A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll also points to a big challenge for Sen. Obama as his party gathers in Denver next week for its convention: rallying Sen. Hillary Clinton's supporters to his cause. Only half of those who voted for Sen. Clinton in the primaries say they are now supporting Sen. Obama. One in five is supporting Sen. McCain. The Republican has reached out to Clinton supporters by offering steady praise for the former first lady and hinting that he'd be open to a running mate who supports abortion rights.
Overall, the poll finds the race a statistical dead heat, with 45% favoring Sen. Obama and 42% Sen. McCain. That three-point Obama advantage is down from six points a month ago, a trend found in other national polls as well. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, meaning the Obama lead could range from zero to six points.
The poll has some cautionary notes for Sen. McCain as well. It shows that his supporters are much less enthusiastic than Sen. Obama's, and finds widespread concern among voters about his age.
Voters noticed. Three in 10 in the new poll say only Sen. McCain is running a 'negative campaign,' versus just 5% who say the same about Sen. Obama. Still, this doesn't seem to be hurting Sen. McCain, reinforcing the notion that in politics, attacks work. Typically, pollsters say, when one side is seen as negative, both are. This poll found just one in five saying both candidates are running negative campaigns.
Sen. McCain has also found two winning issues in the past month. In response to high gasoline prices, he seized on a proposal that proved resonant with voters: expanding oil drilling offshore. Then, an international crisis -- Russian troops entering Georgia -- played to his greatest strength and reminded voters of dangers abroad. The new poll was in the field from Aug. 15-18, after the Georgian conflict broke out. By 52% to 27%, voters said Sen. McCain would be better than Sen. Obama on 'international crises such as Iran or Russia and the nation of Georgia.'
Despite Sen. McCain's progress in this poll, there were signs of problems as well. Nearly four in 10 voters say they are concerned that Sen. McCain, who turns 72 next week, is too old to assume the office. And when the poll gave voters the opportunity to choose among third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr, in addition to the two major-party candidates, a small portion did just that, most of them coming from Sen. McCain's column. In a four-way race, Sen. Obama keeps 95% of his supporters while Sen. McCain keeps just 90% of his, a sign that some of the McCain voters are simply supporting him because they don't like the alternative.
Overall, Sen. Obama continues to have big leads among young voters and Hispanics. Sen. McCain is favored by older voters and regular churchgoers.
The poll has other bits of good news for Sen. McCain and his party. For months, independent voters leaned Democratic on a number of measures. This month's survey found them more up for grabs.
Sen. McCain appears to be steadily gaining some traction with the electorate. The portion of people who view him positively has inched up from 39% in June to 42% in July to 45% in August.
Laura Meckler
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