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WSJ Developed Economies' Growth Slows Amid Credit Crunch, Inflation

发布者: chrislau2001 | 发布时间: 2008-8-21 19:35| 查看数: 1281| 评论数: 1|

LONDON -- Developed economies grew at the slowest rate in almost seven years during the second quarter, figures released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development showed Wednesday.

The OECD said the combined gross domestic product of its 30 members between April and June increased 0.2% from the first quarter of 2008 and 1.9% from the second quarter of 2007.

That represented a marked slowdown as the combined effects of the credit crunch and high commodity prices took an increasing toll on activity. In the first three months of the year, quarterly growth was 0.5%.

The OECD said its member economies last grew more slowly in the third quarter of 2001, when their combined GDP contracted 0.1%. The annual rate of growth was last lower in the second quarter of 2003, when it came in at 1.4%.

Growth was slowest in the Group of Seven leading industrial nations, whose combined GDP grew just 0.1% on the quarter as Japan, France, Germany and Italy all experienced contractions.

The U.S. economy was the best performing of the G7, growing 0.5%. Indeed, of the 1.9% year-to-year increase in economic output recorded by OECD members in the second quarter, the U.S. accounted for 0.6 percentage point. The euro zone continued at 0.4 percentage point and Japan at just 0.1 percentage point.

In its twice-yearly Economic Outlook released in early June, the OECD cut its 2008 and 2009 growth forecasts for the 30 developed economies that are its members. It now expects their combined gross domestic product to expand 1.8% this year and 1.7% next, having forecast in December that their combined GDP would increase 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively.

The OECD had expected the euro-zone economy to grow more strongly than the U.S. this year, but that now seems in doubt following a weak quarter for the currency area. It registered its first contraction since well before the introduction of the euro in 1999, and now appears headed for a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of declining output.

-By Paul Hannon

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chrislau2001 发表于 2008-8-21 19:35:47

经合组织第二季度经济增长放缓



济合作与发展组织(OECD)周三公布的数据显示,第二季度发达国家的经济增速创出近七年来的最低水平。

OECD称,第二季度该组织30个成员国的总体GDP较第一季度增长0.2%,较上年同期增长1.9%。

上述数据说明,信贷危机以及商品价格上涨对经济活动的影响正日益增大。今年第一季度,OECD的GDP较前季度增长0.5%。

OECD称,其成员国上次经济增速更低的时期出现在2001年第三季度,当时的总体GDP下降了0.1%。上一次GDP较上年同期增速更低是在2003年第二季度,当时的增幅为1.4%。

七大工业国(G7)的经济增速最低,其总体GDP仅较前季度增长0.1%,因日本、法国、德国和意大利经济均出现了萎缩。

G7中经济表现最好的是美国,第二季度的GDP增幅为0.5%。在OECD较上年同期1.9%的GDP增幅中,美国经济的贡献就占了0.6个百分点。欧元区的贡献仍为0.4个百分点,日本的贡献仅为0.1个百分点。

在6月初公布的《经济展望》(Economic Outlook)半年度报告中,OECD下调了今明两年30个成员国的经济增长预期。OECD目前预计,今明两年其总体GDP增幅分别为1.8%和1.7%,去年12月份时的预期分别为增长2.3%和2.4%。

OECD曾预测今年欧元区经济会较美国经济增长强劲,不过在欧元区经历了一个疲弱的第二季度后,现在这个预测能否实现值得怀疑。这是1999年欧元诞生甚至更早时期以来经济第一次出现萎缩,眼下欧元区似乎正走向技术性衰退,即生产总值连续两个季度出现萎缩。

Paul Hannon
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