When Will The Economy Recover?
Now that gross domestic product has officially gone negative, focus has turned to how deep the downturn will be and what needs to happen for the economy to recover. But for now, it looks like the worst is still to come.
Following the release of a 0.3% contraction in third-quarter GDP at an annual rate, most economists are forecasting at least two more negative quarters.
'The drop in third-quarter output is also a harbinger of much worse things to come. We now expect that GDP will contract at an average 3% annualized pace in the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2009, generating the worst recession since 1981-82,' said Abiel Reinhart of JPMorgan Chase.
Economists at JPMorgan expect GDP to be flat in the second quarter of 2009, before recovering somewhat in the second half. However, they continue to see growth remaining below trend for some time.
Forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers expects an annualized contraction of 2.8% and 1.4% in the fourth quarter and first quarter, respectively. MA says a recovery in the second half assumes there will be additional fiscal stimulus in 2009. However, they warn that if it does arrive, 'it will not do so soon enough to improve materially the GDP outlook for the next two quarters.'
Richard Moody of Mission Residential also doesn't expect recovery until the second half of 2009. 'Unclogging the credit markets is a necessary first step, but the damage done to the U.S. and foreign economies thus far will take time to undo,' he said.
Going into the fourth quarter there were three major problems weighing on the broader economy: rising energy prices, tighter credit and the continued deterioration in the housing market. The clearer indications of recession have already brought down energy prices, and there are tentative signs of improvement in the credit markets.
'We continue to believe that the policy measures now in place - along with those that appear to be in the pipeline - will be sufficient to produce some healing in credit conditions and eventually lead to some stability in the overall economy,' said David Greenlaw at Morgan Stanley. 'However, this process will take time and a collapse in economic activity is just getting underway.'
However, the housing market is a problem that isn't going away. There were some indications of stabilization in the housing market before the credit crunch moved into full swing in October. But tighter credit conditions, mounting job losses and a weaker economy are likely to continue putting pressure on prices. Many economists say that a recovery is impossible until a floor emerges for home prices.
So even though most economists are forecasting a recovery to begin in the second half of 2009, the risks continue to be to the downside. |
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