China Seeks Growth Above 8%

Eight is a lucky number in Chinese culture. China is hoping it will be lucky enough to keep its economic growth rate above 8%.

The People's Bank of China late Wednesday cut interest rates for the third time in six weeks -- an unusually quick succession of rate cuts for any government, let alone one that overseas an economy growing at 9% a year.

But China is now watching growth rapidly decelerate toward 8%. That's the target Beijing has set for the country for the last several years. Meeting the target hasn't been an issue for some time; GDP growth last dipped below 8% in 1999, when it was 7.6%.

Many economists still estimate 8% is the growth rate China needs to sustain in order to provide employment and improving living standards for its massive population.

China raised interest rates earlier this year to tackle inflation, particularly in food prices, that threatened instability. It is now lowering them to ensure instability doesn't come from a different economic source -- joblessness.

Already there are reports of factories closing and jobs lost in China's coastal regions, its main manufacturing and export areas. In the long term, as China continues to urbanize, a fast growth rate is needed to create enough jobs for the new city-dwellers.

Chinese companies have faced problems as the growth rate fell to 9% in the third quarter of this year from 11.9% in 2007. According to J.P. Morgan Chase, earnings growth at 1,005 Chinese firms listed in Shanghai or Shenzhen fell 21% in the third quarter compared with a year ago. The proportion of loss-reporting companies doubled to 17.8%.

So growth below 8% in China, says Moody's Economy.com economist Sherman Chan, will feel like a recession does in the West.

[ 本帖最后由 chrislau2001 于 2008-10-31 09:32 编辑 ]

在中国文化中八是个幸运数字。中国也希望自己足够幸运，能将经济增长率保持在8%以上。

中国央行周三晚间在六周内第三次下调利率，这一降息频率对任何政府来说都已快得不同寻常，更不用说对年经济增长率达9%的中国了。

然而中国目前的经济增长率正迅速向8%滑落。而这一水平正是中国过去几年中的目标增长率。有些年份达到这个目标根本不成问题。中国的国内生产总值(GDP)增长率上一次低于8%还是1999年的事，那一年中国经济增长了7.6%。

许多经济学家依然认为，中国要想为其庞大的人口提供就业并改善其生活水平，就必须把经济增长率维持在8%以上。

中国今年早些时候曾上调利率，为的是应对威胁到社会稳定的通货膨胀，特别是食品价格的上涨。而中国现在降息的目的之一则是遏制失业，因为失业也会造成社会不稳定。

已经有报导说中国沿海地区出现了工厂关门、工人失业的现象，沿海是中国主要的生产和出口地区。长远而言，随着中国城市化进程的推进，为了给新增加的城市居民创造就业机会，经济也有必要快速增长。

广告由于中国今年第三季度的经济增长率已经从2007年的11.9%下降至9%，国内企业开始面临一些问题。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)提供的数据显示，中国沪、深两市1,005家上市公司今年第三季度的利润增长率比上年同期下降了21个百分点。上市公司中亏损企业的比例增加了一倍，达到17.8%。

Moody's Economy.com的经济学家Sherman Chan因此说，在中国，如果经济增长率低于8%，人们就会有西方人在经历经济衰退时的感觉。