Who s Boss? Bush, Obama, G-20
Next week's meeting of the leaders of the group of 20 to address the financial crisis is likely to be President Bush's last hurrah on the world stage, but questions still are swirling whether it will President-elect Obama's first.
Beginning Nov. 14, Bush will host a two-day summit of G-20 leaders to deal with the economic crisis. The meeting, planned as the first in a series, was always going to be clouded by the president's lame-duck status. On Monday, the White House aimed to tamp down expectations.
'We'll have a meeting that is robust in its agenda, hopefully robust in its principles for reform to move forward,' White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said. 'I don't think anybody should expect next week that we're going to walk away and have everything solved.'
But unless the U.S. presents a united front combining the old and new administrations, it is difficult to imagine anything substantive coming out of the talks.
The G-20 includes the seven major industrialized nations - Britain, Canada, France, Italy, Japan, Germany and the United States - plus Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey.
So far, it is unclear how big a role the president-elect will play. Wednesday, it was reported that organizers of the summit were consulting Obama's team about the possibility of attending. French officials indicated that there would be talks with Obama advisers. When the meeting was announced Obama declined to say whether he would attend the meeting if elected, saying, that 'we still have one president at a time.' Etiquette might suggest that Obama keep the summit at arm's length and let his team of advisers act as observers.
However involved Obama is, it remains unlikely that any major agreements will come out of the summit. Leaders may be reluctant to make deals with a departing administration, and they will be unable to come to agreements with a team that isn't even in place yet. Obama is working on the transition now, but he has yet to fill the role of Treasury secretary, someone who would need to be a key player if G-20 talks on the financial crisis are to continue.
Of course, just because the U.S. isn't in a position to negotiate and major reforms doesn't mean that the meeting won't be important. Former IMF Chief Economist Simon Johnson says that just getting these leaders in the same room is an important step. 'The fact that G20 heads of government will now start meeting is most significant,' he wrote. 'Almost always, once a group like this meets, it can agree on its own importance and the need for another meeting.'
Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics says that even though Obama may not be a direct participant, he may be able to show off negotiating skills in backroom discussions. Weinberg says that Europe must consider stimulus for its economies, and Obama may be able to get the ball rolling. 'Someone has to get the Eurolanders to step up to the plate, and everyone has to move forward together,' he said.
However, anyone thinking this meeting is going to turn into Bretton Woods II is in for a disappoint. It may be a good start to a process of global economic reform but as long as a lame duck is dealing for the U.S., major changes aren't in the cards . |
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