APEC Leaders Fear US Ties Are Fraying
Heads of 21 Pacific Rim countries will gather in Peru this weekend for their annual summit, with many growing increasingly worried that U.S.-Asian economic ties are about to unravel.
A global recession, rising protectionist sentiment and Democrats' recent election successes are combining to raise concerns over a possible chill in trans-Pacific relations. Among the specific steps Asian leaders fear: increased U.S. pressure on China to raise the valuation of its currency; postponement of a long-sought U.S.-Korea free-trade agreement; congressional passage of antitrade legislation; and stronger U.S. efforts to hold Asian economies to strict greenhouse-gas limits that could choke their economic growth.
U.S. President George W. Bush, attending his last summit as head of state, will try to reassure Asian leaders about the outlook, suggesting the U.S. will remain supportive of trade and development ties even after he leaves office in January. Mr. Bush leaves Friday for the two-day trip to Lima for the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting. The group, known as APEC, promotes trade and business development in the region.
Mr. Bush 'is going to APEC to demonstrate that the U.S. is committed to the Asia-Pacific region,' said Gordon Johndroe, a White House spokesman. 'This is such a fast-growing part of the world and becoming so influential that the U.S. is going to have to be engaged with the Asia-Pacific countries if we're going to be successful in the 21st century.'
White House officials acknowledge the worries. 'There is concern we've heard expressed about nations turning inward,' Dan Price, a top White House adviser on trade policy, said at a Wednesday briefing. 'It's going to be important to these countries to reinforce the message' of trade and economic integration.
Mr. Bush will give a speech to business leaders and attend meetings with other APEC leaders. He also is expected to meet separately with Chinese leader Hu Jintao, who has recently been helpful to the U.S., and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who has sharply criticized U.S.-Russian relations under Mr. Bush.
At this year's APEC summit, leaders are expected to focus on the effects of the global financial meltdown, and they likely will sign on to the remedies recently endorsed by the Group of 20 major economies. APEC leaders also could take steps to support free trade -- for example, by pushing for a global trade-liberalization pact, as well as for a trans-Pacific free-trade area.
But both those trade proposals face uncertain prospects at best, particularly in the current economic environment. And Asian leaders aren't likely to be reassured by Mr. Bush's optimism.
Just this week, U.S. President-elect Barack Obama suggested he will increase pressure on some Asian countries that have long sought to avoid international curbs on greenhouse gases linked to global warming.
'My presidency will mark a new chapter in America's leadership on climate change,' Mr. Obama said in a taped address to a summit of U.S. governors. 'The truth is, the U.S. cannot meet this challenge alone. Solving this problem will require all of us working together. . . . I look forward to working with all nations to meet this challenge in the coming years.'
Mr. Obama also raised eyebrows in China late in the presidential campaign when he promised to address U.S. industry complaints that China is manipulating its currency to increase its advantage in global trade. 'China must change its policies, including its foreign-exchange policies,' he said in a letter, adding that he will use 'all diplomatic means at my disposal to induce China to make these changes.'
Another worry among Asian leaders is that the U.S. is going to become more protectionist, says Vinod Aggarwal, director of the Berkeley APEC Center at the University of California. 'There is a concern there will be an inward turn in the U.S.' that could add to the economic headwinds for emerging economies.
Mr. Aggarwal points to survey data showing that the American public's support for free trade fell to 59% from 78% between 2002 and 2007. The U.S. support was the lowest of 47 nations measured by the Pew Global Attitudes Project.
That is fueling specific trade-related concerns in some countries. Korean leaders, for example, are increasingly pessimistic that the U.S. Congress will pass the U.S.-Korea free-trade agreement, given criticisms that the pact doesn't allow enough access to Korea for U.S. auto makers. Recent congressional jockeying over bailing out the U.S. auto industry is adding to Korean concerns.
Japanese officials fret that they will get less attention under the Obama administration, given the number of China experts among his foreign-policy advisers.
Mr. Obama, as wildly popular as he is in many parts of the world, fares less well in some Asian countries. In a BBC World poll conducted this summer, he registered approval of only 35% in China, 29% in Singapore and 24% in India, and in Russia, his approval was only 18%. Mr. Obama still bested Sen. John McCain by wide margins in all those countries, where many voters didn't express an opinion either way. In Singapore, though, poll respondents predicted that relations with the U.S. would improve more under a McCain administration. |
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