A STUPENDOUS display of military nonsense erupts each sunset at the Wagah crossing between India and Pakistan. Thousands cheer rival guards in silly hats who strut with mock aggression, lower their flags and slam shut the border gates. The display is choreographed fun. But underlying it are deeper mutual antagonisms generated by a history of border wars, terrorism and the original sin in 1947 of partition itself. Nowhere are the costs of these antagonisms so apparent as in the pathetic levels of trade between these two populous nations.

每到日落时分，印巴边界小镇瓦格赫（Wagah）就会上演毫无意义的军事表演，令人叹为观止。印巴双方的卫兵带着滑稽的帽子，互相较劲，然后降下国旗，最后狠狠地关上边界大门，数千人为双方卫兵摇旗呐喊。表演很有看头。然而，在表演背后，边界战争、恐怖主义以及1947年印巴分离以来双方的心结则是造成这种强烈敌对情绪的根源。而这两个人口稠密的国家之间的贸易往来是受这种敌对情绪影响最大的领域。

For years direct exchange was all but blocked. Apart from barter by Kashmiris and the odd trainload of cargo at Wagah, goods went via third-country ports, notably Dubai and Colombo. Once-thriving border towns, such as Amritsar, slid into relative gloom. Pakistan’s cocooned economy grew weak and uncompetitive. Even after Wagah’s road crossing reopened in 2005, when bilateral trade was little more than $600m, commerce has been stymied. Barmy visa rules keep away traders. Delays at dilapidated customs posts ruin perishable goods. Last year trade between India and Pakistan was just $2.6 billion. Unofficial trade boosts the figure, but it is still pathetic for countries with populations of 1.2 billion and 180m respectively, and combined economies of over $2 trillion. By way of comparison, India’s trade with China, another ancestral enemy, may soon pass $100 billion.

多年来两国一直没有直接贸易往来。除了通过克什米尔进行的易货贸易以及偶尔在瓦格赫镇用火车装运货物，两国之间的货物运输都要经过迪拜和科伦坡这些第三国港口。如阿姆利则（Amritsar）这些曾经兴盛一时的边界城镇早已不复昔日的辉煌。巴基斯坦经济发展闭塞，缺乏竞争力。2005年，印巴两国的贸易额仅有6亿多美元，虽然再次打通了瓦格赫镇跨境陆路通道，两国之间的通商之路依然不畅。狭隘的签证限制阻隔了商人之间的往来。边防海关检查站破旧不堪，工作效率低下，致使很多易腐烂货物变质后失去价值。去年，印巴两国的贸易额仅为26亿美元，其中大部分为非官方贸易往来，然而，印度和巴基斯坦分别拥有人口12亿和1.8亿，综合经济规模也超过两万亿美元，如此说来，这样一个数字简直不足挂齿。来做个比较，印度与中国素有不和，但他们之间的贸易额很快就将超过千亿美元。

The same economic pragmatism is beginning to appear between India and Pakistan. Both governments are daring to break with history. It is a difficult and brave thing to do, especially in Pakistan, where civilian politicians normally kowtow to the army. Yet they seem to have persuaded the soldiers that not all exchange with the arch-enemy is disastrous; and that more trade will mean greater prosperity, which will in the long run reduce the dependency on the American handouts that Pakistan’s armed forces loathe (see article).

印巴之间也开始出现这种经济实用主义趋势。双方政府都鼓起勇气冲破历史局限。特别是对巴基斯坦而言，这可谓一项艰巨任务，需要勇气面对。在巴基斯坦，政客往往都以军方为尊，不过他们似乎已经打消了军方的疑虑，让他们相信并非与印度这个大敌之间的所有贸易往来都具有恶虐影响，而且贸易发展的得好，经济形势就会越好，长此以往，对美国的依赖度就会降低，而靠美国施舍度日恰恰是巴军方深恶痛绝的地方。

And so a thaw is taking place. Last year Pakistan said it would match India’s old offer of most-favoured-nation trading status. To little fanfare, Pakistan is now scrapping restrictions: adopting a “negative list” of specified banned goods, rather than, as previously, stipulating only what may be imported. Meanwhile, India is allowing more to arrive by road. Imports of Pakistani cement are now soaring. A smart new customs post at Wagah is speeding the flow of goods. Other crossings may open. Pakistanis may now invest directly in India’s economy. Indian petrol may next be sent westwards, with electricity to follow. This month home ministries of both countries will probably scrap the worst visa rules (see article).

两国在其他方面的关系也趋于缓和。去年巴基斯坦表示将满足印度早已提出的请求，给与印度最惠国贸易待遇。巴基斯坦悄无声息地解除了各种限令：他们拟定了一份“禁止进出口商品清单”，一一列明了禁止交易产品明细，而不再像以前那样只规定哪些产品可以进口。同时，印度也批准更多产品可以通过陆路运输。印度加大了从巴基斯坦进口水泥的数量。在瓦格赫镇还设置了智能型海关检查站，货物流通速度加快了很多。此外，还将开通更多的跨境通道。巴基斯坦人现在可以直接到印度投资。接下来印度石油或将出口到位于其西北方的巴基斯坦，并将为巴基斯坦输送电力。本月两国的内务部长或将废除那些糟糕透顶的签证限制。

Dreaming of silk

建立丝绸之路的梦想

It all adds up to a profound and welcome shift. Businesspeople are excited, as delegations start making mutual visits. Yet the progress is vulnerable to many things, not least to another strike in India by Pakistan-based terrorists.

从中可以看出，两国之间的关系发生了深刻的改变，而且这种改变深得人心。双方商业代表团开始互访，商人对此无不拍手称道。然而，很多情况都会阻挠双方关系进一步缓解，尤其是巴基斯坦恐怖组织或将对印度发起袭击。

While the going is good, both governments must be much more ambitious. Pakistan needs to focus on improving customs posts and quickly scrapping the remaining negative list on trade. But India, which stands to gain disproportionately from burgeoning trade, must make most of the running. Stable relations with Pakistan are a prize in itself for the Indians. Immense hurdles remain, not least the quest for peace in Afghanistan; but the longer-term dream is of land trade through Pakistan to Central Asia, with its oil and gas, and even to European markets. Given all that, India should dare to be generous, removing non-tariff barriers, cutting duties on Pakistani imports and making it easier to invest in India. Clever steps at the border today will bring great rewards in future.

目前形势正朝着好的方向发展，双方政府的胃口必须更大些。巴基斯坦需着力改善边防海关检查站的工作效率，尽快取消尚在实行中的禁止进出口产品清单。印度则要充分利用有利条件。如果双方贸易能够蓬勃发展，印度无疑是更大的受益者。对印度而言，与巴基斯坦建立稳固的关系本身就是一项成就。印度还要跨越很多障碍，特别是要在阿富汗推进和平进程，不过他们的长远目标则是要建立经由巴基斯坦通往中亚地区乃至欧洲的陆路通商渠道，把石油和天然气销往这些国家。综上所述，印度应勇于摆出无私的姿态，比如说解除非关税壁垒，降低自巴基斯坦进口的货物关税，简化巴基斯坦在印度投资的程序等等。今日在边界事务上采取明智措施，明日就会收到丰厚回报。