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习近平展现强力军事领袖形象

发布者: sunny214 | 发布时间: 2013-3-8 09:50| 查看数: 732| 评论数: 1|

China's new leader, Xi Jinping, appears to be ingratiating himself with the country's generals by protecting the defense budget even as economic growth slows. He also is cultivating a public image as a strong military leader as China faces off with Japan over a group of disputed islands and seeks to counteract the U.S. strategic pivot toward Asia.

A national budget unveiled Tuesday at the opening of an annual meeting of the National People's Congress, China's parliament, forecast military expenditure of 720.2 billion yuan ($114.3 billion), an increase of 10.7%, in 2013.

It is the first budget since Mr. Xi took over as Communist Party and military chief in a once-a-decade leadership change in November.

Military spending has increased at a similar rate for most of the past two decades, but this year's increase comes as China's overall economic growth begins to slow, with parliament approving an official GDP growth target of 7.5% for the second year running, compared with an average growth of more than 10% for most of the past decade.

Diplomats and analysts say Mr. Xi has moved faster than expected to establish himself as a strong military leader, making a series of high-profile visits to army, navy, air force and missile-command facilities in his first 100 days in office, and launching a campaign to enhance the armed forces' ability to 'fight and win wars,' according to diplomats and analysts.

Those people also say Mr. Xi has taken direct control of an interagency body that has overseen an escalation in Chinese civilian and military patrols around islands claimed by both China and Japan, leading to frequent confrontations with Japanese ships and planes that many regional defense experts say could escalate into military conflict.

Mr. Xi's more dynamic military profile is mainly designed to build up a political support base within the armed forces, and cultivate a public image that distinguishes him from his predecessor, Hu Jintao, who struggled to establish his authority over the armed forces and was widely viewed as a weak and uncharismatic leader, say diplomats and analysts.

But the U.S. and other foreign governments are watching for indications that Mr. Xi's apparently closer ties with the military might result in a continuation, or even an escalation, of China's recent assertive behavior, especially in relation to the country's territorial disputes in the East China Sea and South China Sea.

That assertiveness, combined with China's rapid development of military capabilities designed to deny U.S. forces access to waters near its shores, was among the factors behind the Obama administration's decision last year to bolster defense and trade ties in Asia─a move that China has denounced as a ploy to contain its economic and military rise.

The official military spending for 2012 was around $106 billion, which was an 11.2% rise from 2011.

China says its defense budget is expanding in line with its economic growth, but isn't directed at any other country, and remains far behind U.S. military spending. The figure is usually unveiled at a news conference the day before the parliament session begins, but Fu Ying, a vice foreign minister who is spokeswoman for the parliament session, declined to reveal the number on Monday.

'It seems China needs to explain every year to the outside world why we are strengthening national defense and why we are increasing military spending,' she said. 'If a large country like China cannot protect its own security, that won't be good news for the world,' she continued. 'Strengthening China's defense capability will be conducive to further stability in the region and will be conducive to world peace.'

Experts on the Chinese military have long argued that China's real defense budget is much higher than the official figure, which doesn't include big-ticket items such as arms imports, indigenous weapons development, and military components of the space program. Last year, the Pentagon estimated China's actual military spending in 2011 at between $120 billion and $180 billion.

However, an article by two Western scholars to be included in this month's China Quarterly academic journal argues that China's official military budget increasingly reflects actual spending, and also includes some items─such as disaster-relief operations─that aren't usually calculated as part of Western defense budgets.

'Increases in the official defense budget are roughly consistent with GDP growth and constitute a declining percentage of central government expenditures,' wrote Adam Liff, a doctoral candidate at Princeton University, and Andrew Erickson, an associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College.

'This suggests that, generally speaking, investment in military modernization─aside from specific capabilities considered exigent for party leadership continuity, national survival and defense of critical national interests─remains a lower priority overall than economic development for Beijing's leadership,' they wrote.

Experts on China's military also say that generals have been lobbying for larger increases in real military spending to help fund the development of costly weapons systems including aircraft carriers, the first of which was launched last year, and stealth fighters, a prototype of which made its first test flight in 2011.

中国新任领导人习近平似乎在与该国军事将领拉关系,在中国经济增速放缓之际保证国防预算,同时在中国同日本因一系列争议岛屿而产生争执并试图对抗美国“重返亚洲”战略之际,试图打造一个强有力的军事领导人的公众形象。

在周二开幕的十二届全国人大一次会议公布的政府预算中,2013年中国的国防开支预计将达到人民币7,202亿元(约合1,143亿美元),增幅达10.7%。

这将是去年11月习近平在10年一次的领导层换届中出任中共中央总书记和中央军委主席以来公布的首份预算报告。

在过去20年的大部分时间里,军费开支一直在以相似的速度增加。但今年国防开支增加的同时,中国整体经济增速开始放缓。中国人大将连续第二年批准官方制定的只有7.5%的国内生产总值(GDP)增长目标。而在过去10年的大部分时间里,中国经济的平均增速在10%以上。

外交官和分析人士说,习近平以比外界预计更快的速度将自己打造成一个强有力的军事领导人。在上任的头100天内,习近平对陆军、海军、空军和二炮部队进行了一系列备受瞩目的视察。外交官和分析人士还说,习近平还发起一项运动,以提高部队“能打仗、打胜仗”的能力。

上述人士也说,习近平还直接控制了一个跨机构部门。该部门负责监督中国民间和军方围绕中日主权争议岛屿展开的不断升级的巡航活动。这些活动导致中国同日本船只和飞机频频发生冲突。很多区域防务专家说,这些冲突可能升级成军事对抗。

习近平在军事上展现出这种更为积极的形象主要是为了在军队内部构筑政治支持基础,并打造一个有别于其前任胡锦涛的公众形象。据外交官和分析人士说,胡锦涛在任期间难以在中国军队内部构筑自己的权威,外界普遍将其视为一个软弱且毫无个人魅力的领导人。

但美国和其它外国政府正在密切关注是否有迹象表明,习近平同军方显然更为密切的关系是否会导致中国延续甚至升级近来颇为自信的行为,尤其是在东中国海(中国称东海)和南中国海(中国称南海)的领土争端问题上。

除了表现出上述强硬姿态外,中国还在迅速发展军事能力,旨在防止美军进入其海岸附近水域。这些都是奥巴马政府去年决定加强美国在亚洲的防务和贸易关系的原因。中国谴责美国的上述行动,称这是遏制中国经济和军事崛起的伎俩。

2012年中国官方公布的军费支出为1,060亿美元左右,比2011年增加了11.2%。

中国说,其国防预算的扩张与经济增长保持一致,但是并不针对任何国家,且仍然远远低于美国的军费支出。这一数字通常在人大会议开幕前一天的新闻发布会上公布。但是中国外交部副部长、人大发言人傅莹周一没有披露该数字。

她说:好像中国每年都需要向外界解释为什么我们要加强国防建设,为什么我们要增加军费。其实像中国这么大一个国家,如果不能保卫自己的安全,这对世界不会是一个好消息。她接着说:中国国防力量的加强会有利于这个地区更加稳定,也会有利于世界和平。

研究中国军事的专家长期以来一直认为,中国的实际国防预算远远高于官方数字,官方数字不包括武器进口、本土武器开发和空间项目的军事组成部分等高成本项目。去年,五角大楼估计,中国2011年的实际军费支出在1,200亿美元到1,800亿美元之间。

不过,两名西方学者在本月的学术期刊《中国季刊》(China Quarterly)上发表的一篇文章认为,中国的官方军费预算越来越能够反映出实际的支出,并且包含了一些通常不计入西方国防预算统计的项目,比如救灾行动。

在普林斯顿大学(Princeton University)攻读博士的里弗(Adam Liff)和美国海军军事学院(Naval War College)的副教授埃里克森(Andrew Erickson)写道,官方发布的国防预算增幅基本上与GDP增长保持一致,在中央政府支出中的所占比重逐渐下降。

他们写道,这意味着,总体来说,除了那些被认为对中共执政地位的延续、国家的存亡和重要国家利益的保护来说十分紧迫的军事实力外,对于中国政府而言,军事现代化投资的重要性仍然比不上经济发展的重要性。

研究中国军事的专家还说,军事将领们一直在要求更大幅地增加实际军费开支,从而为开发航空母舰和隐形战斗机等造价高昂的武器系统提供资金。中国去年交付了首艘航空母舰。2011年,中国的隐形战斗机原型机首次试飞。




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