China’s leadership is at a rare moment of transition. During the National People’s Congress, or parliament, now in its annual session, Communist party leader Xi Jinping is expected to be confirmed as successor to President Hu Jintao; and Li Keqiang to replace Premier Wen Jiabao. However, despite promises from Mr Xi and Mr Li, the prospects of reform are uncertain in the minds of not only Chinese citizens but also observers around the world. 中国的领导层正在换届，这是一个难得一遇的时刻。正在召开的十二届全国人大一次会议，预计将批准中共中央总书记习近平接替胡锦涛出任国家主席，批准李克强接替温家宝出任国务院总理。不过，尽管习李二人许下了一些诺言，中国的改革前景仍充满变数——这不仅是中国公民的看法，也是世界各国观察人士的看法。

The challenge of reform is a tough one for the new leaders. After a “lost decade” under Mr Hu, the country is much less harmonious. Curbing corruption, improving income distribution and maintaining economic growth are all urgent. But it is widely argued by academics and, privately, by many officials that the priority is starting the long-delayed shift to a constitutional and democratic system. Otherwise, China will lose its economic momentum and its social stability. 中国新一代领导人面临的改革挑战十分严峻。经历了胡锦涛任内“失去的十年”后，中国社会的和谐程度已大大降低。遏制腐败、改善收入分配和保持经济增长，都是很紧迫的任务。但学者们普遍认为，当务之急是启动拖延已久的转型、转向宪政和民主体制（许多官员私下里也持同样看法）。否则，中国将难以保持经济增长势头和社会稳定。

Pessimists say there can be no reform of the political system so long as vested interests hold the reins of power. Yet history is full of examples of successful reforms that resulted from the actions of vested interests. We should not underestimate the power of ideas. The Communist party created the revolution in the name of the working class. However, its early leaders were primarily the children of “vested interests”. They chose to pursue revolution because they came to believe in Marxist and Leninist ideas. Deng Xiaoping launched market-oriented reforms in 1978 not in pursuit of his own interest, maintaining the status quo, but in pursuit of his new ideas about the nature of socialism. 悲观主义者称，只要既得利益阶层掌权，政治体制改革就不可能进行。然而，既得利益阶层推动改革取得成功的例子，在历史上不胜枚举。我们不应低估思想的力量。中共当初以工人阶级的名义发动革命，但早期的中共领导人却主要出身于“既得利益阶层”。这些人之所以选择投身革命，是因为他们信仰马列主义思想。1978年邓小平发动市场化改革，不是为了谋求私利、保持现状，而是为了实践他关于社会主义本质的新理论。

It is also important to remember that reform is often the best way for vested interests to avoid revolution, even if the steps they are forced to take are not entirely what they would like. The UK consistently expanded the voting franchise following its first reform act of 1832 because the ruling class recognised the system might otherwise collapse. Wang Qishan, one of China’s senior leaders, has taken to recommending to party members Alexis de Tocqueville’s The Ancien Régime and the French Revolution, which investigates the causes and forces that led to the downfall of the monarchy. This might signal an awareness that, without reform, the possibility of revolution exists. 记住下面这点也很重要：对既得利益阶层而言，改革往往是避免革命的最佳手段——尽管他们采取的一些改革举措并非全然出于自愿、而是为形势所迫。英国之所以在1832年出台首个议会改革法案后不断扩大选举权范围，是因为统治阶层认识到，不这样做，体制就有可能崩溃。身为中国最高领导层成员的王岐山，建议党员阅读亚历克西•德托克维尔(Alexis de Tocqueville)的《旧制度与大革命》(The Ancien Régime and the French Revolution)一书。该书探讨了君主制倒台的原因和推动力。这件事可能意味着，中共已经意识到，不改革就有可能爆发革命。

When we speak of vested interests, we often make the mistake of assuming they are united as one body with a clear goal. But often conflicts of interests among ruling elites are greater than between rulers and the ruled. The tumult surrounding the ejection of Bo Xilai, the ambitious member of the politburo and the party secretary of the south-western municipality of Chongqing, illustrates this. 谈到既得利益阶层时，我们往往会错误地认为，这些人铁板一块、目标明确。但统治精英内部的利益冲突，往往比统治阶层与被统治阶层之间的利益冲突更激烈。野心勃勃的原中共中央政治局委员兼重庆市委书记薄熙来遭整肃过程中出现的乱象，就展现出这一点。

Intra-party fighting means even the privileged are not protected by human rights. The most senior officials can be imprisoned without legal proceedings at any time. So, for their own security, elites may eventually have an incentive to create the rule of law, as in England’s pre-19th century transformation. 这种党内斗争意味着，即便是特权阶层，其人权也不是受保护的。最高层官员随时可不经法律程序被投入监狱。因此，出于自身安全考虑，精英阶层或许最终会有动力建立起法治，就像英国在19世纪前的转型期发生过的事情一样。

But this is the optimist’s case. From a more pessimistic viewpoint, China still faces many barriers to reform. The greatest is the quality of leadership. 但这是乐观主义者的观点。从更为悲观的观点来看，中国的改革仍面临许多障碍。最大的障碍是领导层的素质。

The country has reached the point where its leaders are drawn exclusively from the bureaucracy, whereas functionally the two should be distinct. The bureaucracy follows carefully proscribed rules designed to avoid risks. Great leaders, by contrast, act with a view to the nation’s destiny and future. They must be entrepreneurial with a sense of mission, vision and courage. They are unlikely to emerge from the bureaucratic training process. 如今，中国已形成这样一种局面：领导人无一例外地从官僚中选拔产生。从职能角度讲，领导人与官僚应该是截然不同的。官僚应严格遵守各种旨在避免风险的戒律。而伟大的领导人，应以国家的前途和命运为行动出发点。他们必须有使命感、高瞻远瞩、勇于开拓。这种人不太可能从官僚培训流程中脱颖而出。

To reach the position of party secretary, the head of all levels of government, the promotion ladder is strictly hierarchical. You can become a senior national leader only after at least four decades in the bureaucratic system, going through more than 20 grades. Those with courage and principles will be knocked out, leaving a nation of bureaucratised leaders. This is why the regime of the past decade was so weak. 要爬上中共中央总书记的位子、统领各级政府，就得在等级森严的晋升体制内走一遭。若想成为国家高级领导人，至少要在官僚体制内呆满四十年、往上爬二十多级。有勇气、有原则者会被淘汰，剩下的都是官僚化的领导人。这就是为什么过去十年的政权会如此孱弱。

At precisely the point when China needs great leaders for a transition to a constitutional and democratic system, the structures that now exist are incapable of producing them. The first generation of revolutionaries had the authority to create such a transformation but failed to do so. Even Deng missed his opportunity. 正当中国迫切需要在伟大领导人的带领下实现向宪政和民主体制转型时，中国现行的体制却无法产生这样的领导人。发动革命建立新中国的第一代领导人有足够的权威开创这样的转型，但他们却没有那样做。即便是邓小平，也错失了自己的机会。

Of course, history is about contingency. Because of special historical circumstances and their elite family backgrounds, the new leadership is different from Mr Hu’s regime. They are not completely the products of the bureaucratic training system. They appear to be more talented, more missionary and more entrepreneurial than their predecessors. 当然，历史往往由偶然因素决定。由于特殊的历史环境以及自己的精英家庭背景，新一代领导人不同于胡锦涛那代领导人。他们不完全是官僚培训体制的产物，似乎比上一代领导人更有才华、更富使命感和开拓精神。

We must therefore hold on to hope. I believe the next 10 years under Mr Xi present a unique window of opportunity. Future generations of leaders are unlikely to be as capable as today’s if the political system is not changed. China must not miss its moment. 因此，我们必须坚持希望。我相信，习近平领导下的未来十年将带来独一无二的机会。如果不改革政治体制，未来几代领导人恐不会像今天这代领导人那样有能力。中国决不能错过这个机会。