The US stock market is on the verge of a triple top. Yesterday, the S and P 500 passed the 1,552 reached at the height of the dotcom bubble and is just 1.4 per cent below its 2007 peak. 美国股市即将构筑一个三重顶。本周一，标准普尔500指数(S and P 500)突破了互联网泡沫顶峰时期触及的1552点关口，仅较2007年最高点低1.4%。

The 13 years since 2000 have been unlucky for shareholders and it is psychologically normal to focus on recent history. But look a bit further back and another comparison is intriguing: that with 1987. 对于股东而言，自2000年以来的13年是不幸的，从心理上讲，着重关注最近的历史颇为正常。但让我们把回顾的目光再放远一点吧，另一种对比会十分有趣：与1987年相比。

US equities are valued about where they were in March of 1987 at 13.3 times forward earnings. Share price moves over the past two years look very similar to the market’s gains then, too. The US economy is almost four years into an expansion (if a rather shaky one), just a little less than it was then. Government bond yields are again rising (although from much lower levels today). Corporate bond spreads are almost identical, as investors hoover up all the corporate debt they can. And inflation is below 2 per cent, just as it was then. 如今，美国股市预期市盈率为13.3倍，与1987年3月的水平大致相当。过去两年，股价走势看上去也非常类似于当年的股市上涨。目前美国经济扩张持续了近4年时间（尽管步履蹒跚），仅比1987年短一点点。政府债券收益率再次上涨（尽管现在的收益率远远低于过去）。所有公司债券的息差几乎一样，因投资者正大力吸纳所有他们能够吸纳的公司债券。通胀率低于2%，一如当年。

There was even a hike in capital gains and dividend tax in January 1987, prompting early selling to avoid the higher rate, exactly as was seen before the fiscal cliff (it gave the government a new record CGT haul in 1986). 1987年1月，美国的资本利得税和股息税大幅上调（让美国政府在1986年推出的资本利得税改革创下新的纪录），促使投资者提前卖出以避免更高的税率，这与财政悬崖之前人们所见到的景象完全一样。

For those brought up on the story of the Great Crash of ’87, such a comparison suggests it is time to sell before disaster strikes. But from March that year equities soared another 16 per cent before peaking. 对于那些听着1987年股市大崩盘(Great Crash)的故事长大的人们来说，这种对比表明，现在是在灾难降临之前卖出的时候了。但从1987年3月开始，股市在见顶之前又飙升了16%。

The US economy took off rapidly in 1987, prompting Fed rate hikes which eventually cooled the overheated market. There is no risk of rate rises this year, but if last week’s surprisingly good jobs figures are repeated, concerns that the Fed could slow or stop its bond buying are sure to grow. 美国经济在1987年迅速腾飞，这促使联邦基金利率大幅上调，最终给过热的市场降了温。今年没有任何加息风险，但如果上周意外强劲的就业数据再次出现，市场对于美联储(Fed)可能放缓或结束债券购买计划的担忧肯定会加重。

Investors are worryingly confident today. But in 1987 their complacency, as measured by the American Association of Individual Investors, rose far higher, to levels not seen again until the dotcom years. 如今投资者信心满怀，这令人担忧。但根据美国个人投资者协会(American Association of Individual Investors)的数据，1987年，投资者的自满程度比现在要高得多，在互联网热潮出现之前，这种热情再未出现过。

A market correction now would be healthy. Without it, the 1987 comparison suggests fat profits ahead – but only for those who sell in time. 如今，市场出现调整将是健康的。在不发生市场调整的情况下，与1987年的对比表明，未来可能蕴藏丰厚利润，但这只是对那些及时卖出的人而言。