This session of National People’s Congress will be more memorable for the fact that it marks the transition to the next generation of senior Chinese leaders than for any pronouncements. Premier Wen Jiabao will pass his mantle to Li Keqiang at a time when stalling growth, widening wealth disparities, pervasive corruption and mounting social unrest mean people are anxious for change. 人们铭记十二届全国人大一次会议，更多地将是因为这次会议标志着中国领导层的一次换届，而不是因为这次会议发表的任何公告。中国的增长正在放缓，贫富不均正在加剧，腐败现象猖獗，社会日趋不稳。就在这样一个时刻，温家宝把国务院总理的位子传给了李克强。

Whereas Mr Wen took a populist approach on taking office a decade ago, emphasising the needs of the rural economy, Mr Li will embrace an ambitious urbanisation programme as the solution for China’s many ills. For the premier-designate, this is more than just a growth driver – it is the key to addressing many of the country’s challenges, from inequality and environmental degradation to exploitative land grabs by local officials. 温家宝十年前上台时，走的是民粹主义路线，强调农村经济的需求。而李克强将把宏大的城镇化计划当作医治中国诸多弊病的药方。他认为，城镇化不仅是驱动经济增长的引擎，还是一把钥匙，能够解开中国目前面临的许多死结——从社会不平等、环境恶化到地方官员的掠夺性征地。

Could urbanisation really prove such a panacea? The average citizen in Beijing these days, stuck in traffic jams and choking on polluted air, would complain that the city is already too crowded. 城镇化是否真是一剂万灵药？如今，生活在北京的老百姓会说，这个城市已经太过拥挤了——他们忍受着交通堵塞，呼吸着受到污染的呛鼻空气。

But with a population of 1.3bn and large portions of its land mass uninhabitable, China is less urbanised than many other developing countries. This is the legacy of a Communist system that controlled settlement patterns. Unrestricted, 60 per cent of China, rather than 52 per cent, might be urbanised. With more supportive policies, it is likely to be 80 per cent urban by 2030, about the same as South Korea today. 然而，拥有十三亿人口以及大片不适合居住土地的中国，其城镇化水平还不及其他许多发展中国家。这种现象是由一种控制公民定居模式的共产主义制度造成的。如果没有这种控制，中国城镇化率将达到60%，而非52%。如果政府推出更多扶持政策，到2030年时中国城镇化率很可能达到80%，与今天的韩国差不多。

Many observers are sceptical about the potential net benefits. Three factors will determine whether Mr Li’s objectives will be realised. Can urbanisation generate the productivity increases needed to benefit rich and poor, rural and urban? Can this be done on a financially sustainable basis? And can China avoid the congestion-related ills that afflict many other big cities in developing Asia? These questions need to be addressed if a blueprint is to be presented as early as the next NPC meeting in October. 许多观察人士质疑城镇化是否真的利大于弊。李克强的目标能否实现，将取决于三个因素。首先，城镇化能否带动生产率提高？这是让穷人和富人、农村人和城市人都能受益的必要因素。其次，城镇化能否以财务上可持续的方式实现？第三，中国能否避免人口过度密集导致的一些弊端？这类弊端困扰着亚洲其他发展中国家的许多大城市。如果要在下一次全国人大会议上拿出一份蓝图，就必须解决这三个问题。

Urbanisation can shift China to a new growth path that relies more on productivity and consumption rather than investments and exports. It could also have favourable consequences for distribution. Many workers in rural villages and towns would be better off if they moved to larger cities, where potential productivity gains are much greater. About 40 per cent of the labour force is still underused in rural areas – mostly in agriculture, which accounts for only 10 per cent of gross domestic product. Urbanisation would also reduce income inequalities by giving poorer rural workers attractive income options while making more land available for those who choose to remain behind. 城镇化可促使中国转变增长模式，更多地依赖生产率和消费，而非投资和出口。城镇化可能还有利于改善收入分配。城市的潜在生产率提高比乡镇地区大得多，如果乡镇地区的劳动者迁往大中城市，他们中的许多人的生活可能会有所改善。农村地区约40%的劳动力仍未得到充分利用，他们大多是在从事农业生产，而农业目前只占中国国内生产总值(GDP)的10%。城镇化能为较贫困的农村劳动者提供收入更高的工作机会，并为那些选择留在农村的人提供更多可用的土地，从而缓解收入不均。

For this to happen, China needs to liberalise its restrictive hukou residency policies to increase labour mobility. This would spur consumption, as migrants would be eligible for housing and social services on the same basis as established residents – creating the demand that would make additional infrastructure investments sustainable. The biggest cities will continue to grow rapidly, given the productivity benefits that come from concentrating skills, financial and marketing services and consumers. 要实现这一点，中国必须放开户籍制度，以增强劳动力的流动能力。这将刺激消费，因为外来人口将在住房和社保服务方面享有与本地户口居民同等的待遇——由此会创造出需求，使得额外的基础设施投资变得可以维持。鉴于在劳动者技能、金融与市场服务以及消费者方面的聚集效应有利于提高生产率，一线城市将继续快速发展。

A big question facing the new premier’s urbanisation plan is how it will be financed. The proposal being discussed by the authorities to back it with a Rmb40tn ($6.4tn) municipal bond programme in the coming decade has generated excitement that this could deepen capital markets and allow China to rely less on bank financing. But many are sceptical. 李克强城镇化计划面临的一大问题是，如何筹措计划所需的资金。当局正在讨论的方案是，在未来十年发行40万亿元人民币（合6.4万亿美元）市政债券，为城镇化计划提供资金。有些人为这一方案感到鼓舞，认为它能深化资本市场、并助中国减少对银行融资的依赖。但也许多人对该方案存有疑虑。

This approach assumes municipalities would issue bonds with terms based on their fiscal capacity. This would encourage development of more sustainable revenue sources, such as property taxes, and reduce reliance on land sales that have spawned abusive practices and a potential debt crisis. 该方案假定，地方政府会发行市政债券，并根据自己的财政能力确定所发债券的条款。这会鼓励地方政府开发一些更可持续的收入来源（比如房产税），减少对售地收入的依赖（这种售地活动滋生出大量滥权行为，还可能引发一场债务危机）。

The danger, however, is that a bond-financed programme would turn out to be not much different from the current practice of state banks lending directly to local government financing entities. The purchasers of these bonds would continue to be primarily state banks, and evaluation of risk could be a secondary consideration given politically driven pressures to buy them. Nevertheless, this initiative is a step closer to developing more transparent and sustainable financing vehicles. 但问题在于，这个发债融资的方案可能最终与现行的做法——国有银行向地方政府融资实体直接放贷——并无多大区别。市政债券的买家仍将以国有银行为主。考虑到国有银行会承受购买市政债券的政治压力，它们可能会把风险评估放在第二位考虑。尽管如此，该方案仍向开发更透明、更可持续的融资工具迈进了一步。

More rapid urbanisation can make cities dirty, dangerous and congested. For China, however, the risks have less to do with the size of its cities than poor management and policies that fail to encourage efficient land use. Beijing’s core, for example, is not being appropriately used, while affordable housing is pushed too far out from where the jobs are. A fascination with ring roads impedes rather than facilitates traffic flow. The consequence is excessively long commutes with more traffic-related pollution than necessary and costlier provision of social services because of the higher capital costs of building schools, sewerage systems and other social infrastructure for a dispersed population. 更快速的城镇化可能会损害城市的市容和治安，加剧城市的拥挤。然而，对中国而言，城镇化加速带来的风险，更大程度上在于治理不力、以及政策未能促进土地有效利用，而不在于城市规模过大。比如说，北京的核心城区就未得到合理利用，市民买得起的住房离办公区“十万八千里”。北京痴迷于环形道路，但这种道路并未疏导交通，而是阻碍了交通。结果，北京的通勤时间长得离谱，造成了毫无必要的交通相关污染；人口居住分散还加大了修建学校、污染处理系统以及其他社会基础设施的资金成本，导致社会服务的提供成本升高。

The commercial viability of megacities lies not in dirty industrial production, which is better located in less densely settled areas, but in the provision of services that require concentration of knowledge-intensive activities and proximity to diverse consumer markets. This holds the key to both a more innovation-driven growth model and sustained consumption demand. 特大型城市的商业可行性不在于为肮脏的工业生产提供场所（这种生产更适合在居住人口不那么密集的地区进行），而在于提供那种需要将知识密集型活动集中化、并且贴近各种消费者市场的服务。向创新驱动型增长模式以及可持续消费需求转型的关键就在于此。

Mr Li’s urbanisation initiative deserves support for the potential it offers – but resistance to change should not be underestimated. Opponents include mayors and established residents reluctant to encourage inflows of migrants, as well as bureaucrats and developers who profit from the opaque processes controlling land development. It will take a very determined premier to overcome these vested interests to move forward on such an ambitious agenda. 李克强的城镇化计划潜力巨大，理应获得支持。但我们不应低估变革面临的阻力。反对者包括那些不欢迎外来人口流入的市长和本地户口居民，以及受益于不透明的土地开发管理程序的官员和开发商。这位新总理必须下定决心，才能克服既得利益者的阻挠、推进这一宏大的计划。