The announcement of China’s new economic team this week will open a window for serious financial liberalisation – and poses an early test of President Xi Jinping’s commitment to reforms essential to the country’s growth prospects. 上周，中国公布了新一届经济领导团队名单，开启了切实推进金融自由化的大门，中国国家主席习近平的改革承诺将接受初步检验。对于中国经济的增长前景而言，改革有着至关重要的意义。

China is well-positioned to draw on the rich precedent of 1990s reforms, particularly to its banking system. And today Beijing has every incentive to change if it is to meet rapidly rising public expectations that the government will adopt a new and fairer economic model. 中国目前的有利条件是，有上世纪九十年代改革的丰富经验可供参考，特别是在银行业领域。而且，当前的形势强烈要求中国政府推进改革，以满足公众日益高涨的期盼——中国公众期盼政府采取新的、更强调公平的经济发展模式。

Why are the 1990s relevant? There are two main reasons. First, some of that decade’s reforms were prompted by the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. China could not then wall itself off from volatility beyond its borders – and this is even harder to imagine today. Its $8tn-plus economy cannot remain immune to fiscal and growth problems afflicting the combined $35tn economies of the US, Europe and Japan. 为什么上世纪九十年代会与现在密切相关？原因主要有两点。首先，九十年代的部分改革措施是在1997-98年亚洲金融危机的影响下出台的。当时的中国尚无法将自身与境外市场的波动隔绝开来，今天要屏蔽外部的影响就更加难以想象了。当前中国经济总量已逾8万亿美元，美国、欧洲和日本经济的合计规模则为35万亿美元。中国无法对困扰后三者的财政和经济增长问题保持免疫。

Second, with Beijing facing a crisis of credibility in the 1990s following several political crises in the 1980s, public expectations were sky-high. And they are high once again, partly because, for all China’s successes, a rising middle class faces diminishing returns on the current growth model. 其次，中国政府在经历了上世纪八十年代的数场政治危机之后又于九十年代面临公信力危机，中国公众当时极其期盼政府能够有所作为。目前，中国公众的期盼再度高涨——部分原因在于，虽然中国取得了巨大的发展成就，日渐崛起的中产阶级在现行经济增长模式下的收益却不断下降。

Whoever ends up in which chair, senior officials with whom I have worked for decades, such as central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, understand the pivotal role financial reforms must play in transforming a nation of savers into a nation of investors. China’s leaders will probably retain or promote Zhou and other reformers such as Lou Jiwei of the China Investment Corporation; Xiao Gang of the Bank of China; and Jiang Jianqing of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. 不论新政府中的各项职位如何分配，中国央行行长周小川等与我打了数十年交道的高级官员都明白，在将一个储蓄大国变为一个投资大国的过程中，金融改革必须发挥关键作用。中国领导人很可能留用或提拔周小川以及中国投资公司(CIC)董事长楼继伟、中国银行(BoC)董事长肖钢、中国工商银行(ICBC)董事长姜建清等其他改革派官员。

The lack of investment options for ordinary citizens, coupled with inflation (now at a 10-month high) and low interest rates on deposit accounts, means the return on their savings is negative. Meanwhile, Chinese companies, especially state-owned enterprises, can gain access to cash at below-market rates. 对于中国普通公民来说，缺乏可选投资渠道、通货膨胀（目前处于十个月高点）以及储蓄账户低利息等因素意味着，他们储蓄的实际收益为负。与此同时，中国企业、尤其是国有企业，却能够以低于市场水平的利率融得资金。

This oversupply of low-cost capital removes market discipline necessary for the long-term competitiveness of these companies. It also undermines the efficiency of the economy by steering capital away from more productive investments in private companies, which fuel innovation and represent the nation’s economic future. Current global challenges, 这种廉价资本的过度供给导致中国缺乏培养企业长期竞争力所需的市场纪律。中国经济的运行效率也因此受损，因为资本未能流向民营企业并用于生产效率更高的投资，而民营企业是推动创新的主体并代表了中国经济的未来。当前全球经济领域面临的挑战，尤其是欧洲的财政紧缩以及美国的财政赤字，凸显出中国推进更大胆金融改革的必要性，例如放松对外资流动的管制以及提高汇率的灵活性。

not least austerity in Europe and US fiscal problems, demonstrate China’s need for bolder financial reforms such as liberalising foreign capital flows and assuring greater flexibility in the exchange rate. 必须承认，中国政府在金融改革领域取得了巨大进展，例如对银行实施的结构重组、发展国内债券和股票市场、资产管理公司以及监管体系。中国政府对汇率改革也表现出了很大决心，因为它意识到若不实施汇率改革，国内资本市场将无法有效运转。

To its credit, Beijing has made significant progress, from bank restructuring to developing domestic debt and equity markets, asset managers and a regulatory system. It is committed to currency reform, too, because it recognises capital markets will not otherwise function efficiently. 但在近年来全球金融市场动荡的影响下，中国金融改革的紧迫性应该是加大、而非减小了。2009年中国政府推出金额高达5860亿美元的银行信贷刺激之后，产生了棘手的副作用。两个原因导致这些副作用难以消除。首先，由于官方干预导致人民币汇率被低估，中国央行失去了一个对付通胀的有力工具。其次，在对非银行或“影子”信贷缺乏充分监管的情况下，政策制定者想要有效收紧流动性变得难上加难。影子信贷问题棘手的原因，还在于其不透明性、以及其造成的信用风险和潜在的泡沫。

But the global turmoil of recent years should make financial reforms more, not less, urgent. In the aftermath of Beijing’s $586bn bank-lending stimulus in 2009, the country faces difficult side-effects. These are hard to deal with for two reasons. First, with official intervention leading to a weakened currency, the central bank has been denied a useful monetary tool to fight inflation. Second, without sufficient oversight of non-bank or “shadow” lending, it is more difficult for policy makers effectively to tighten liquidity. Shadow lending is also problematic because it is not transparent, and generates credit risks and, potentially, bubbles. 中国新一届经济领导团队很快将迎来考验，其中有三项改革极为关键。第一项是利率自由化。这是促进资本有效分配的必要条件，此外，它对于确保贷款被导向充满活力但缺少资本的民营部门有着重要意义。

This new team will face early tests, and three reforms will be critical. The first is interest-rate liberalisation. This is essential to promote the efficient allocation of capital – and ensure lending is directed to a dynamic private sector that has been starved of capital. 第二项是，中国必须改革地方政府的融资机制，因为不断膨胀的地方债将阻碍中国将城镇化作为增长主要引擎、进而转向消费驱动型经济的计划。合法的地方政府债券市场、预算权力的下放以及更加公平的税收收入分配都是中国亟需的。

Second, China must reform municipal finance because ballooning local debt will hinder its ambition to make urbanisation the main growth driver for a more consumption-driven economy. A legitimate local government bond market, decentralisation of budget authority, and a more equitable division of tax revenue are needed. 但在金融服务业以及资本市场领域的多年从业经验使我相信，改革最为关键的要素在于开放市场引入外部竞争。

But having spent most of my career in financial services and capital markets, I believe that the essential ingredient of reform is opening up to foreign competition. 我从未听说有哪个国家拥有富于竞争力的资本市场、同时却不允许全球最优秀的金融机构与本土机构公平竞争。

I know of no nation that has competitive capital markets yet does not allow the world’s best-in-class financial institutions to compete on a level playing field. 组建合资金融企业不能产生最优结果，因此，取消有关外资金融机构必须以合资形式参与中国市场的规定符合中国的利益。中国还应取消对外资金融机构经营领域的剩余限制，允许它们在遵守中国国内法规的前提下，按照它们在其他主要金融中心一样的模式运营。

Joint ventures yield suboptimal results so it is in China’s best interest to eliminate requirements for foreign financial firms to operate on this basis. It should also do away with remaining restrictions on where these firms can operate and allow them to function as they do in other leading financial centres, subject to domestic regulations. 改革可能带来政治风险和经济风险。但我相信，中国要破解当前面临的发展难题，就必须对资本市场进行重构和深化。改革行动过于迟缓所带来的风险，可能超出很多中国人的预期。新一届经济领导团队必须吸取上世纪九十年代的经验教训，抓住当前的机会果断采取行动。

Reform will pose political and economic risks. But I believe the country’s underlying development challenges cannot be met without deepening and restructuring capital markets. Acting too slowly poses a greater risk than many in China believe. The new economic team must draw on the lessons of the 1990s, seize this moment of opportunity and take bold action.

Imagine walking past a shirt shop with two friends and glancing at the garments in the window. Suddenly your mobile phone pings with a message. Buy two shirts from the shop, runs the text, and you will receive a 20 per cent discount; buy three and the discount will be 30 per cent. 想象你和两个朋友一起路过一家衬衣店，随意浏览橱窗中展示的衣物。突然你的手机上收到了一条信息，内容是：在本店一次性购买两件衬衣，打八折；一次购性买三件衬衣，打七折。

This kind of personalised promotion is the bread and butter of a consumer initiative called LiveLab, now hitting the streets in Singapore and the brainchild of professors at Singapore Management University. The country’s consumers are invited to opt into the service using their mobile phones in three locations – Orchard Road, Singapore’s most famous shopping street, Changi airport and on Sentosa island, home to visitor attractions such as Universal Studios. 这种针对个人的营销活动是一项名为LiveLab的消费者创新服务的主要收入来源，该项目是新加坡管理大学(Singapore Management University)教授们的创意成果，目前正在新加坡的街道上开展。新加坡的消费者们被邀请在三个地点使用他们的手机选择参与这项服务：新加坡最著名的商业街乌节路(Orchard Road)、樟宜(Changi)机场以及圣淘沙(Sentosa)岛。其中圣淘沙岛是新加坡环球影城(Universal Studios)等旅游景点的所在地。

Combining personal data with location is key, says Steven Miller, dean of the school of information systems and vice-provost for research at SMU. 新加坡管理大学信息系统学院(School of Information Systems)院长、主管研究的副教务长史蒂文•米勒(Steven Miller)表示，将个人信息与地理位置结合起来是这个项目的关键所在。

“It is something they [consumers] will find helpful in that context. It’s going from location aware to context aware. That’s where a lot of the smarts are.” 米勒教授称：“这是消费者在当时的情境下会感到有用的信息。信息推送已从基于地点向基于情境转化。这正是这个项目的出彩之处。”

Meanwhile a few miles across town Columbia Business School marketing professor Bernd Schmitt is working with another Singapore business school, at Nanyang Technological University. He has set up the Institute of Asian Consumer Insight, which is spearheading both academic and corporate consumer research. 与此同时，在城区相隔数英里的地方，哥伦比亚大学商学院(Columbia Business School)营销学教授贝恩德•施米特(Bernd Schmitt)正在与新加坡南洋理工大学(Nanyang Technological University)的商学院展开合作。他创立了亚洲消费者研究所(Institute of Asian Consumer Insight)，该所在对消费者行为的学术以及商用研究领域均表现突出。

One of the latest pieces of research from the institute is trying to understand how people shop. “It’s about how values are changing in Asia and how that affects behaviour,” says Prof Schmitt. 该所的一项最新研究试图理解人们如何购物。施米特教授表示：“这项研究主要着眼于亚洲地区消费者的价值观正在发生什么变化，以及这将如何影响消费者行为。”

His decision to swap temporarily New York for Singapore has been spurred by a real corporate thirst for information on Asian consumers. Academic research has traditionally compared behaviour across continents, between North America, Europe and Asia, he says 施米特教授决定将研究地点从纽约临时换至新加坡，主要是受企业渴求有关亚洲消费者的信息影响。他表示，传统的学术研究会将北美、欧洲以及亚洲等各大洲的消费者行为模式进行对比。

“That is just not enough any more. Companies are interested in specific markets. We need comparative studies. There is almost nothing [in this field].” 施米特教授称：“但这种做法现已不能满足需要。企业目前感兴趣的是特定市场中的消费者行为。我们亟需进行比较研究，而这一领域目前几乎是一片空白。”

These days there is a real sense that Asia is where the action is. “The engine of the world economy for the next few decades will be Asia,” he points out. “It will not be America. It will not be Europe.” 当前各界越来越真切地感受到，亚洲才是经济活力之源。施米特教授指出：“未来几十年中，亚洲将成为推动全球经济的引擎。高速增长不会出现在美国，也不会出现在欧洲。”

It is no coincidence that both these consumer initiatives have been established in Singapore, which is exercising a real pull for business researchers. It is a discreet multicultural urban centre with high-quality infrastructure and as such it can act as a test-bed for consumer research, says Prof Schmitt. “It is great for preliminary findings that you can go out and test in other markets.” 以上两个消费者研究项目均选在新加坡展开绝非偶然，该国目前正在大力吸引商业研究人员。施米特教授指出，新加坡是一个秩序井然的多元文化城市中心，拥有高质量的基础设施，因此可以作为消费者研究的试验平台。他表示：“新加坡非常适于进行初步研究，你可以将研究成果放到其他市场进行检验。”

It is also located between India and China, with strong links to both, as well as strong relationships with Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines 此外新加坡地处中国和印度中间，与两者联系紧密，并与日本、马来西亚、印度尼西亚以及菲律宾等国往来密切。

But perhaps the biggest draw is the cash. “I could not do this in the US any more,” says Prof Schmitt. “They just don’t have the money.” 但或许资金支持才是最主要的吸引因素。施米特教授表示：“我已无法在美国进行此类研究，因为缺乏研究资金。”

Key to the establishment of both the NTU and SMU experiments has been the financial support of the Singapore government. Nanyang’s Institute on Asian Consumer Insight is jointly funded to the tune of S$77m (nearly US$64m) over five years by the Singapore Economic Development Board and NTU. Meanwhile Singapore’s National Research Foundation, through its Interactive Digital Media Programme, has invested S$9.94m over five years in SMU’s LiveLabs, subject to further funds being raised from industry. 来自新加坡政府的资金支持是南洋理工大学和新加坡管理大学启动以上两大研究项目的关键。南洋理工大学的亚洲消费者研究所是与新加坡经济发展局(Singapore Economic Development Board)合资创办的，双方将在五年之内向该研究所投入7700万新加坡元（约合6400万美元）。新加坡的国家研究基金会(National Research Foundation)则通过旗下的互动数字媒体项目(Interactive Digital Media Programme)，在五年之内向新加坡管理大学的LiveLabs注资994万新加坡元，研究所需的更多资金将来自企业筹款。

The Singapore government is also investing a further S$26m in a separate research project at SMU, the Living Analytics Research Centre (Larc) which is run jointly with Carnegie Mellon University. It has been set up to develop Singapore as one of the world’s leaders in “live” data. This will enable researchers to observe how large numbers of users behave by observing their digital traces – from mobile phones, for example. They will be able to see how behaviour evolves over time or how people react in certain situations. 新加坡政府还将向新加坡管理大学的另一个研究项目投入2600万新加坡元。这个名为生活数据分析研究中心(Living Analytics Research Centre)的项目是与卡内基梅隆大学(Carnegie-Mellon University)联合运作的。成立该项目的宗旨是为了将新加坡打造成为“生活数据”领域的国际领头羊。在该项目中，研究人员通过观测大量用户在使用移动电话等设备时留下的数字痕迹，了解用户群体的行为习惯。研究者们能够看到行为模式是如何随着时间逐渐演变的，以及人们在某些特定情境下将如何反应。

Following huge investments in communications and education by the Singapore government – business schools Insead, Essec and Chicago Booth have campuses there, for example – information is the next stage of the government’s long-term strategic plan, says Prof Schmitt. 施米特教授表示，随着新加坡政府在通信和教育领域投入大量资金——欧洲工商管理学院(INSEAD)、高等经济商业学院(Essec Business School)以及芝加哥大学布斯商学院(Chicago Booth)等商科教育机构都在新加坡设立了分校区——信息技术将成为新加坡政府长期战略计划的下一阶段重点。

“I think it is a smart way to invest in intellectual services.” 施米特教授表示：“我认为投资于知识服务领域是一种聪明的选择。”

For Prof Miller, the two projects at SMU put the fledgling university in the big league. 在米勒教授看来，新加坡管理大学的那两个项目使得这所新成立不久的学校融入了大潮。

“We’re not aware of anyone in the world that is doing things on this scale. We’re building a larger ecosystem than anyone else.” And he dismisses any concerns about data privacy. The data protection laws on the use of personal data are as strong in Singapore as they are in the US, he says. 他表示：“我们目前尚未发现世界上还有哪些人正在以这种规模开展研究。我们正在建立的生态系统比其他各方的规模都大。”他驳斥了有关数据隐私的担忧。他指出，在个人数据应用领域，新加坡的数据保护法规和美国一样严格。

At the heart of the ACI’s research will be the development of traditional analytical tools but also those relating to ethnography to help companies better differentiate between consumers. 亚洲消费者研究所的研究重点包括传统分析工具的发展，以及与人种学有关的课题，以帮助企业更好地划分消费者结构。

This will use big data sets using data from large corporations, such as telecoms companies and banks, as well as data collected by researchers. 研究中将用到由大型企业提供的大数据资源，例如电信企业和银行等，以及由研究人员自己收集的数据。

“Big data sets will allow us to find out how specific markets behave,” believes Prof Schmitt. 施米特教授认为：“大数据资源将使我们能够找出某一特定市场中的消费者行为模式。”

He is not stopping there. The next subject for research at ACI will be the Asian home – how Asian’s live, what their home decorations are like and what kitchen utensils they buy for example. 但他并不会就此止步。亚洲消费者研究所的下一个研究对象将是亚洲家庭——例如亚洲人是如何生活的，他们的家庭装修是何种风格，以及他们会购买哪些厨房器具。

“The future Asian home will look like a western home [from the outside],” he predicts. 施米特教授预计：“未来的亚洲家庭从外观上看将变得和西方家庭非常近似。”