This is a holy juncture. Christians are celebrating Easter, and Jews Passover. A ritual common to both is the Jewish seder – a dinner in which Jews remember the exodus from Egypt. Jesus’s Last Supper, which gave rise to the Mass, was a seder. 一个神圣的时刻，基督徒们庆祝复活节，犹太人庆祝逾越节。基督徒和犹太人的庆祝仪式差不多，犹太人要吃逾越节晚餐，用来纪念犹太人出埃及。而耶稣的最后晚餐则是基督教的“逾越节晚餐”，弥撒就来源于最后的晚餐。

At a seder the youngest person has to ask four questions about why this night is different from all others. The Long View also asks four questions each Passover about why things in the market are different from how they usually are. 在逾越节晚餐上，最年轻的人要问四个有关今晚为何与其他夜晚不同的问题。与此类似，“长线观点”(Long View)专栏在每个逾越节，也会问四个问题——关于市场为何会与通常不同。

This year’s questions are all about China, giving it a flavour of the food Jews eat at Christmas, rather than Passover. 今年的问题全都是有关中国的，这能让人产生一种犹太人过圣诞节而不是逾越节的感觉。

Why are property prices increasing again, when experience of housing bubbles elsewhere suggests they should be falling? 为什么其他地区楼市泡沫的经验都表明中国房价应该下跌，而中国房价却再次上涨？

After the huge 2008 stimulus with which China staved off the financial crisis, property prices shot up, causing bubbles in the biggest cities. People in Beijing and Shanghai complain that they can no longer afford to live there. 2008年中国用大规模经济刺激击退金融危机之后，房价出现了急剧上升，这在中国最大城市造成了泡沫。北京和上海的人们抱怨说他们再也承担不起在两地的生活了。

A correction was under way by the middle of last year, but then prices started rising again; official figures show Beijing rising at a 6 per cent annual rate. According to UBS, prices are rising or stable in all but two of the 70 largest cities. Why? 去年年中以前，中国房价经历了一轮回调，但随后房价再次开始上涨，官方数据显示北京房价同比上涨了6%。根据瑞银(UBS)的数据，在中国70个最大城市中，只有两个城市的房价在下跌。为什么会这样？

The best guess: the authorities were nervous about the bubble bursting just as power changed hands last year. By injecting more credit into the system, they spurred housing activity and stopped the bubble from deflating. Which leads to another question: 对此，最好的猜测是，去年中国政府处于权力交接时期，他们害怕楼市泡沫在这个节骨眼上破裂。他们通过向整个体系注入更多信贷刺激了楼市交易，从而阻止了楼市泡沫的破裂。而这又产生了另外一个问题：

How did credit start to expand again last year, when the authorities had seemed determined to rein it in? 在中国政府看来好像要坚决收紧信贷的背景下，去年信贷是如何再度开始扩张的？

China relies on credit. And the authorities, unlike their US counterparts, can turn on the credit tap at will – as they did last year to ease the political transition. But they do so rather too effectively. As the chart shows, bank credit tripled as a share of the economy during the 2008 stimulus, and rose sharply again last year, both times galvanising equity markets. 中国依赖信贷。而中国政府与美国不同，他们可以随时开闸释放信贷，去年他们为保证权力平稳交接，就是这样做的。不过，他们的问题在于他们的政策太有效果了。正如图表中所显示的，在2008年的经济刺激中，银行信贷与国内生产总值(GDP)之比迅速增加到原来的三倍，而去年这一比例再次迅速增加。两次都刺激了股市。

In part this is because of China’s flourishing shadow banking system. Wang Tao, UBS Asia economist, puts shadow banking at 40 per cent of the Chinese economy – far smaller than the 100 per cent in some developed economies. But extreme fluctuations show that credit could easily grow out of hand. Small wonder that China tried this week to rein in shadow banks. 这部分是由于中国发展迅猛的影子银行体系。瑞银亚洲经济学家汪涛表示，中国影子银行的规模与GDP之比为40%，比一些发达经济体100%的比例要小得多。不过，影子银行的极大波动性意味着信贷的增长很容易失控。因此，中国上周试图限制影子银行的增长就不足为奇了。

Why are stocks performing so badly when China’s economy is growing faster than almost anywhere else? 为什么中国经济增长快于几乎所有其他国家，中国股市却表现如此糟糕？

The domestic stock market’s long sideways march is what would be expected after a bubble like the one that A-shares (for domestic investors) saw in 2007. Speculators were badly burnt, so no surprise that A-shares are still shuffling along at less than half their highs. A股（供中国国内投资者投资）市场经历2007年那样的泡沫之后，中国股市出现长期二流表现是可以预期的。投机者损失惨重，因此A股市场现在仍在不到高点一半的位置重新洗牌并不令人意外。

But H shares, available in Hong Kong, are also underperforming woefully, as are those western companies whose revenues are most exposed to China. This is because China’s growth, though still fast, is slowing. Forecasts for revenues, while still bullish, are coming down, bringing down share valuations. Further, wages grew faster than the economy last year for the first time in the modern era. This helps persuade a restive populace that they will get their fair share of the growth. But it directly attacks profit margins – providing another reason to reduce multiples on stocks. H shares trade at only about nine times earnings, while the US S and P trades at about 15. 不过在香港上市的H股也是一片愁云惨雾，同那些主要靠中国业务获得营收的西方公司一样。这是因为虽然中国经济的增长依旧很快，但增速正在放缓。公司的盈利预期虽然依旧乐观，但正在下降，从而拉低了股价。另外，去年工资上涨幅度在改革开放之后首次超过了经济增速。虽然这有助于让焦躁不安的民众相信，他们将从经济增长中获得应有的回报，但会直接伤害到企业的利润率，从而为市盈率的下降提供了又一个理由。如今，H股平均市盈率大约只有9倍，而相比之下美国标普500(S and P 500)的市盈率则为约15倍。

All of this poses a new and difficult challenge to corporate managers. They have to show they can raise productivity and manage well, not just exploit cheap labour. 所有这些都为企业管理人员带来了一个新的高难挑战。他们必须展示出他们有能力进行有效的管理并提高生产率，而不是只会剥削廉价劳动力。

Why is the currency strengthening when high inflation implies that it should be falling, and when everyone in the west believes it is being held too cheap? 高通胀率意味着人民币汇率应下跌，同时西方每个人都相信人民币汇率被人为拉低，在此背景下，为什么人民币会走强？

China has an inflation problem. Raising real wages worsens it. With much of the population still living at little more than subsistence levels, inflation is a vital political issue. The Communist party cannot let it get out of control. But Fred Neumann, HSBC Asia economist, points out that “core” inflation – excluding food and fuel – is ticking up. One way to keep a check on this is to strengthen the currency. That makes foreign goods cheaper. 中国确实有通胀问题。实际工资的增长也加重了这个问题。而由于中国很多人勉强生活在贫困线以上，通货膨胀成了一个至关重要的政治问题。因此，中共不可能让这个问题失控。不过，汇丰(HSBC)亚洲经济学家范力民(Fred Neumann)指出，中国排除食品与燃料的“核心”通胀率正在逐渐上升。对此，一个控制手段就是提升汇率，因为这样可以令外国商品更为廉价。

It also makes it tougher to compete, particularly if wages are rising. But China needs to make the transition from a cheap exports model to a system that concentrates on building the middle class. A stronger currency pushes capital in this direction. Its real effective exchange rate (taking into account inflation) has strengthened more than any bar the currencies of Singapore and the Philippines during the past five years, according to Deutsche Bank. The central bank has been intervening more in recent months to limit this appreciation, but this only shows what a difficult balancing act it has. 不过这样对竞争力也会造成压力，特别是工资也在上涨。但是，中国需要将经济模式从原有的廉价出口模式，转换到一种致力于壮大中产阶级的模式。人民币走强会促使资本向这一方向流动。根据德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的数据，在过去五年里，考虑通胀后的人民币实际有效汇率的上升幅度，高于除新加坡元和菲律宾比索之外的所有货币。最近几个月，中国央行一直在加大干涉力度以限制人民币升值，不过结果只能证明这是一个多么困难的走钢丝举动。

In the US stocks are at new records. Cyprus is in the headlines. Investors are not asking questions about China. They should. 美国股市正创新高。塞浦路斯正占据媒体头条。投资者对于中国市场却没有什么质疑，但实际上他们应该有所疑问。