The thing about MAD is that it requires both sides to be sane. Ever since the onset of the nuclear age, the doctrine of mutually assured destruction, or MAD, has kept the peace. The calculation that, ultimately, no rational political leadership would risk millions of deaths in their own nation has seen the world through some perilous moments – from the Cuba missile crisis to the fall of the Berlin Wall. “相互确保摧毁”(mutually assured destruction)的前提是双方需要保持理智。人类进入核时代以来，“相互确保摧毁”的理念维护了和平。按照这种理念，最终而言，任何理性的政治领导人都不会拿本国数以百万计的生灵冒险，这使得世界度过了某些危险时刻——从古巴导弹危机到柏林墙的倒塌。

The most alarming aspect of the current crisis with a nuclear-armed North Korea is that the regime there might be one of those rare abberations, to which the normal logic of nuclear deterrence does not apply. 当前与拥有核武的朝鲜发生的危机最令人震惊的一点是，朝鲜政权或许属于那些罕见的反常现象——正常的核威慑逻辑对其不适用。

Every now and then, during the cold war, there was a suggestion that some political leader might be prepared to think about the supposedly unthinkable. In the late 1950s, Mao Zedong shocked even the hard-bitten former Stalinists of the Soviet Union when, on a trip to Moscow, he suggested that nuclear war might not be so bad after all, telling his startled hosts: “If the worst came to the worst and half of mankind died, the other half would remain. Imperialism would be destroyed, and the whole world would become socialist.” 冷战期间不时有迹象表明，某些政治领导人可能准备考虑一些不堪设想的事情。上世纪50年代后期，毛泽东在访问莫斯科时表示，核战争或许不是一件太大的坏事。他向瞠目结舌的苏联东道主说道：“极而言之，死掉一半人，还有一半人，帝国主义打平了，全世界社会主义化了。”在苏联方面，就连死硬的前斯大林主义者对此也感到震惊。

In many respects, North Korea has replicated some of the very worst features of Maoist China: the isolation from the outside world, the labour camps, the cult of personality and the willingness to tolerate mass starvation at home. The latter is particularly chilling, when one remembers that nuclear deterrence is meant to rely on an unwillingness to accept the death of millions of your compatriots. 朝鲜在许多方面复制了毛泽东时代的中国的某些最恶劣的特征：与外部世界隔绝、劳改营制度、狂热的个人崇拜以及不顾国内的大饥荒。后者尤其令人不寒而栗——别忘了，核威慑是建立在不愿让数以百万计的国民丧生的基础之上的。

There is still an unfortunate tendency in the west to treat North Korea as a bit of a joke. The internet is full of “hilarious” photo-shopped pictures of the podgy young leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-eun. In reality, the Pyongyang regime is about as unfunny as it gets. It is a totalitarian nightmare that has ruined the lives of millions of people – and that now openly threatens the outside world with nuclear weapons. 不幸的是，西方仍倾向于把朝鲜当做笑料看待。网上有很多矮胖的朝鲜年轻领导人金正恩(Kim Jong-eun)的经过图像处理的“滑稽”图片。在现实中，平壤政权一点儿也不好笑。它是一个糟蹋数以百万计人民的生活的极权主义噩梦，如今又公然用核武器威胁外部世界。

Trying to guess what the North Koreans are really thinking is a difficult, but crucial, task. At times, there have been suggestions that the leadership may understand the outside world better than is sometimes supposed. I once asked a senior Chinese diplomat who had frequent dealings with Kim Jong-il, the father of the current leader, whether the North Korean dictator had any real knowledge of the west. “Of course,” came the reply, “he spends all night on the internet.” There was some hope that his son would open an even wider window to the outside world. Surely his time at a Swiss finishing school must have had some impact? 努力猜测朝鲜的真实想法是一个艰难而至关重要的任务。不时有迹象表明，朝鲜领导人对外部世界的理解不像人们想象的那么浅薄。我曾经询问一位经常与金正日(Kim Jong-il)打交道的中国高级外交官，朝鲜独裁者是否真正了解西方。回答是：“当然，他整夜都在上网。”金正日是现任朝鲜领导人金正恩的父亲。此前曾有人预计，他的儿子将会向外部世界更加开放。他在瑞士留学的经历肯定会有一些影响吧？

At present, however, the younger Kim is taking North Korean nuclear posturing to new and even more dangerous levels. In recent days his government has said that it is now in a state of war with South Korea and has talked of launching nuclear strikes on the US. 然而，目前金正恩正将朝鲜的核武姿态提升至一个新的、甚至更危险的水平。近日朝鲜政府宣布，朝韩双方现在处于战争状态，还扬言要对美国发动核打击。

The American and South Korean response has been taken from the classic MAD playbook. By sending nuclear-capable bombers on a trial run over South Korea, the Americans are responding as the theorists of nuclear deterrence would advise: “Don’t blink. Don’t show weakness. The other side will back off, rather than risk nuclear annihilation.” Seoul has also said that its military should respond immediately to any provocation, without considering the wider political implications. 美国和韩国迄今根据经典的MAD剧本进行回应。美国出动可携带核弹头的轰炸机飞临韩国执行投弹演练，这是核威慑理论家会建议的回应方式：“别眨眼，别示弱。对方将会退却，而不敢承担被核打击彻底毁灭的风险。”首尔方面也表示，韩国军队将对任何挑衅做出立即回应，而不用考虑任何政治后果。

The danger is that such policies assume a rational adversary. Indeed America’s foremost experts on North Korea, such as former ambassador Chris Hill, continue to argue that North Korea has no real intention of provoking a conflict with the US. The real danger, they say, is that an inexperienced leadership in Pyongyang will provoke a conflict by accident. Even then, the assumption is that any exchange of fire is likely to be brief – and to stop well short of anything involving nukes. 风险在于，此类政策假定对手是理性的。的确，美国研究朝鲜问题的一流专家——比如前驻韩大使克里斯托弗•希尔(Chris Hill)等人——继续辩称，朝鲜并非真的想要与美国发生冲突。他们表示，真正的危险在于，经验不足的朝鲜领导层意外挑起冲突。按照这种假设，即便爆发冲突，任何交火也很可能是短暂的，远远达不到爆发核战争的地步。

That is probably right. But the unsettling reality is that we cannot be sure. If there is a regime anywhere that might just defy the normal logic of nuclear deterrence, it is North Korea. 或许如此。但令人不安的现实是，我们无法肯定。如果说有哪个政权有可能偏偏违反核威慑的正常逻辑，那就是朝鲜。

That suggests that the current US and South Korean policy – based on unblinking firmness and a refusal to yield to “nuclear blackmail” – may need to be dialled down. The most important task now is to concentrate on calming the immediate situation. That may require fewer, rather than more, military exercises between the US and South Korea. 这似乎表明，美国和韩国可能需要缓和建立在坚定立场和拒绝屈服于“核胁迫”基础上的当前政策。现在最重要的任务是致力于缓和当前局势。这可能需要减少（而不是增加）美韩联合军演。

In the long run, the best hope for peace on the Korean peninsula must be internal change in the North. 长期而言，实现朝鲜半岛永久和平的最佳希望必定是朝鲜内部发生变革。

For beneath the surface, North Korea is changing. There is now far more trade with the outside world than there was a decade ago. Since 2005 the two Koreas have run a joint industrial zone inside the North that employs more than 50,000 North Koreans, working for companies from the South. Small commerce across the Chinese border has boomed, and the space for personal wealth and freedom has expanded a little, as goods and news from the outside world have penetrated the country. 因为朝鲜已经在悄然改变。目前朝鲜与外部世界的贸易额远远大于10年前。自2005年以来，朝韩双方在朝鲜境内创办了联合工业园区，入驻其中的韩国公司雇佣了逾5万名朝鲜人。中朝边境的小型跨境贸易蓬勃发展，随着外部世界的商品和信息进入朝鲜，个人财富和自由的空间略有扩大。

Given these economic shifts, China’s current emphasis on the need for trade and dialogue with North Korea may be something more than the feeble evasion that is often portrayed in the west. If the North Korean leadership can be talked out of its nuclear bunker – and encouraged to engage commercially with the outside world – the prospects for peaceful change will be hugely enhanced. 鉴于朝鲜的这些经济转变，中国当前强调有必要与朝鲜开展贸易和对话，可能比西方所称的那种苍白回避更具实质意义。如果能够说服朝鲜领导人走出核武掩体，并鼓励朝鲜与外部世界开展经贸往来，那会极大地增强和平改变的前景。