英语家园

 找回密码
 注册

QQ登录

只需一步,快速开始

扫一扫,访问移动社区

搜索

美国暂缓向朝鲜展示军力

发布者: sunny214 | 发布时间: 2013-4-7 10:30| 查看数: 887| 评论数: 0|

After a high-profile display of military power aimed at deterring North Korean provocations, the White House is dialing back the aggressive posture amid fears that it could inadvertently trigger an even deeper crisis, according to U.S. officials. 美国官员说,白宫方面在高调展示军事实力以遏制朝鲜的挑衅之后,由于担心这可能无意中触发更深的危机,正在缓和其咄咄逼人的姿态。

The U.S. is putting a pause to what several officials described as a step-by-step plan the Obama administration approved earlier this year, which officials dubbed 'the playbook,' that laid out the sequence and publicity plans for U.S. shows of force during annual war games with South Korea. The playbook included well-publicized flights in recent weeks near North Korea by nuclear-capable B-52 and stealth B-2 bombers, as well as advanced F-22 warplanes. 美国将暂停执行奥巴马政府今年早些时候批准的一项计划,这项计划被官员们称之为“剧本”,一些美国官员将其形容为一个分步实施的计划。计划中明确列出了在每年一次的美韩军演期间美国展示军力的顺序和宣传方案。美国最近几周在朝鲜附近大张旗鼓地出动可携带核弹头的B-52轰炸机、B-2隐形轰炸机以及先进的F-22战机,其实都是这项计划中事先安排好的。

The U.S. began shifting from these plans this week, however. The shift came as U.S. officials began to worry that the North, which has a small nuclear arsenal and an unpredictable new leader, may be more provoked than the U.S. had intended, the officials said. 但美国本周开始不再完全按这一计划行事。上述官员说,就在这一转变发生之际,美国官员开始担心朝鲜受刺激后的反应力度可能比美国原先预想的大。朝鲜拥有一个规模不大的核武库以及一个难以预测的新领导人。

Officials said the U.S. doesn't believe the North Koreans are planning to take military action in the near term in response to the recent exercises. Rather, the shift reflects concerns within the administration that the North, caught off guard by the U.S. actions, could do something rash, contrary to intelligence assessments showing that the North is unlikely to respond militarily to the U.S. show of force. 上述官员说,美国不认为朝鲜正计划在短期内采取军事行动以回应美韩近日举行的军演。美国本周转变行事方式其实反映了奥巴马政府内部的一种担心,即被美军行动搞得措不及防的朝鲜可能做出鲁莽举动,而美国情报机构此前的观点是,朝鲜不大可能对美军展示武力的做法做出军事回应。

It also came after the Navy confirmed reports on Monday that the U.S. had sent two guided-missile destroyers to the region -- a deployment that the White House and Pentagon hadn't intended to publicize and which wasn't part of the playbook. 在美国做出政策转变之前,美国海军周一证实,美国确实如一些媒体所报道的向朝鲜半岛周边地区派出了两艘导弹驱逐舰。这一战略部署并非白宫和五角大楼此前打算公开宣布的,也并非上述“剧本”的内容。

Officials said publicizing the destroyers risked ratcheting up tensions with the North more than the White House had intended. Likewise, officials said, the White House became upset because the disclosure wasn't in keeping with the carefully-orchestrated rollout it sought to control. 美国官员表示,宣布美国派遣驱逐舰一事可能令美朝之间的紧张局势升级到超出美国此前预期的程度。这些官员还说,白宫方面之所以感到心烦意乱,是因为美国精心操控的军力展示计划中并没有包括公开宣布向上述地区派遣导弹驱逐舰这项内容。

The White House has put the next steps in the playbook on hold while it assesses the North's posture, officials say. 上述官员说,白宫已经搁置了“剧本”里的下一步举措,同时对朝鲜的态度展开评估。

On Wednesday, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel -- one of the playbook's architects -- said during an address that the U.S. and other powers in the region don't want to make a 'complicated, combustible situation' even worse. 周三,美国国防部长、“剧本”的撰写者之一哈格尔(Chuck Hagel)在一次讲话中说,美国和该地区其它大国不想让“已经复杂且一触即发的局势”进一步恶化。

Pentagon officials said Wednesday's decision to position an advanced missile defense battery on the Pacific island of Guam was defensive rather than offensive, in keeping with previous announcements. 五角大楼官员说,美国周三决定在关岛部署一套先进的导弹防御系统是出于防御而不是进攻的目的,这一说法与美国此前的表态一致。

The U.S. military's Pacific Command began devising the playbook plan months ago amid a series of provocations by the North, including the launch of a long-range rocket in December, in preparation for the annual military exercise with the South. The plan was recommended by Mr. Hagel, these officials say. 美军太平洋司令部数月前在为美韩年度军演做准备时就开始制订这项被称作“剧本”的计划。当时朝鲜进行了一系列挑衅,其中包括去年12月发射了一枚远程火箭。上述美国官员说,这一计划是哈格尔建议制定的。

The public-relations effort was designed not only to intimidate a North Korea that had recently escalated its military threats, but also to assure a hawkish new government in South Korea that it had full U.S. backing and there was no need for it to respond militarily to the North's provocations. 这一带公关色彩的努力不仅旨在恐吓最近升级了其军事威胁的朝鲜,同时也要向韩国新上台的鹰派政府作出保证,即美国将全力支持韩国,韩国没有必要对朝鲜的挑衅做出军事回应。

U.S. intelligence agencies assessed the risks associated with the playbook and decided there was a low probability of a North Korean military response because the regime's top priority has been self-preservation: Military action by the North, they reasoned, could prompt a devastating U.S. and South Korean counter-strike. 美国情报机构此前曾对“剧本”计划涉及的风险进行评估,最终认为朝鲜进行军事回应的概率很低,因为朝鲜政权的当务之急是自保。他们的理由是,朝鲜若采取军事行动则可能招致美韩两国的毁灭性反击。

'Everyone is concerned about miscalculation and the outbreak of war. But the sense across the U.S. government is that the North Koreans are not going to wage all-out war,' a senior Obama administration official said. 奥巴马政府一名高级官员说,每个人都在担心形势可能被误判,战争可能会爆发。但美国政府内部的整体感觉是,朝鲜不会发动全面战争。

The U.S. plan was discussed during several high-level White House meetings, according to participants. 部分与会者透露,美国的这一计划在白宫举行的多场高级别会议上曾被讨论过。

In the deliberations, supporters said it was better for the U.S. to control the escalating steps, to ensure the situation didn't spin out of control. In part, according to these officials, the plan was an effort to ensure that South Korea's new government wouldn't feel compelled to respond to North Korean threats, which often emerge at the time of the exercises, as the North conducts its own annual legislative meeting. 在讨论中,该计划的支持者认为,对美国来说,更好的选择是控制住这些不断升级的举措,以确保形势不致失控。这些官员说,制定这一计划的部分初衷是为了让韩国新政府放心,不让他们感到必须对朝鲜的威胁做出回应。美韩两国举行年度军演期间朝鲜往往会发出威胁,朝鲜最高人民会议也恰好在此期间召开年度大会。

But at lower levels of the administration, some officials voiced concern about unintended consequences of provoking North Korea. Some of these officials questioned the faith the White House placed in the intelligence agencies, which have a mixed record of predicting North Korean behavior. 但奥巴马政府中一些级别较低的官员则对挑衅朝鲜可能带来的意想不到后果感到担忧。其中部分官员质疑白宫对上述情报机构的信任。美情报机构此前对朝鲜行为预测的准确度可谓好坏参半。

However, few objections were raised at the highest levels during the meetings, according to participants. President Barack Obama gave the green light to proceed. 然而据与会者透露,在上述会议期间,最高级别的官员很少对该计划提出反对意见。美国总统奥巴马最终给计划的实施开了绿灯。

The first show of force came on March 8, during the U.S.-South Korean exercise, known as Foal Eagle, when long-range B-52 bombers conducted low-altitude maneuvers. 美国首秀军力是在3月8日美韩军演期间,数架B-52远程轰炸机进行了低空演习。此次美韩军演的代号为“雏鹰”(Foal Eagle)。

U.S. intelligence agencies, as had been planned, reviewed the North's responses. After those flights, the North responded as the Pentagon and intelligence agencies had expected, with angry rhetoric, threatening to attack the South and the U.S. 美国情报机构则如此前计划的那样对朝鲜的反应进行评估。在美军派出上述飞机之后,朝鲜的反应和五角大楼以及美情报机构此前的预期一致,即放出狠话,威胁要攻击韩国和美国。

On Sunday, the U.S. flew a pair of advanced F-22s to South Korea, which prompted another angry response from the North. 周日,美国派出两架先进的F- 22战机前往韩国,再次引发朝鲜的愤怒回应。

Intelligence agencies had told policy makers that they probably could push the North even harder without triggering a serious military response, according to officials briefed on the assessments. 据那些被告知情报评估情况的美国官员说,情报机构此前曾告诉决策者,即使美国向朝鲜进一步施加压力,后者可能也不会做出严重的军事回应。

Intelligence officials defended their assessments. 'At this point, what you continue to see out of North Korea is rhetoric,' one official said. 'Nothing points to any action on the part of North Korea, which seems to support the intelligence assessments.' 美情报官员认为自己对形势的评估没有问题。其中一位官员说,在当前这个阶段,你看到的依旧是朝鲜不断放出狠话。没有任何迹象表明朝鲜会采取军事行动。这看来支撑了我们对情报的评估。

But caution is growing in some administration circles. 但美国政府部分高级官员则变得愈来愈谨慎。

'There's some sense that we overachieved in a way, that we were so successful [in sending messages to the North] that there is consideration of pulling back somewhat while continuing to reassure the South Koreans,' a senior administration official said. 美国政府一位高级官员说,从某种意义上说,我们超额完成了任务。我们非常成功地向朝鲜传递了信息,现在有必要在继续安抚韩国的同时稍稍收敛一些。


最新评论

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表