The conventional wisdom holds that global oil demand will continue to rise. Demographics and the need to fuel emerging markets make it so, says the consensus in the energy industry. However, the consensus is wrong. This is due to the substitution of natural gas – often obtained through the hydraulic fracturing of shale rock, or fracking – for oil, and fuel- efficiency mandates in many key countries. The prospect of oil demand hitting a plateau this decade is much more feasible than the market seems to think. 传统观念认为，全球石油需求将会持续增长。人口统计特征的变化以及来自新兴市场的需求将支撑全球石油需求持续增长，这是能源产业的共同看法。但这种看法是错误的，原因在于如今天然气开始替代石油（天然气的开采通常采用水力压裂法(fracking)，即，用水力压裂页岩，从而释放出蕴藏在页岩中的天然气），以及许多关键国家出台了旨在提高燃料利用效率的各项规定。石油需求在本十年内达到平衡高点的可能性远高于市场可能的估计。

The shale revolution in the US has already upended energy markets. There is more to come. US natural gas prices have recovered from below $2 per million British thermal units (the standard metric for natural gas prices) over the past 12 months, but it still remains much cheaper than oil. The market seems to be slowly accepting that the spread between gas and oil will stay wide for the foreseeable future. 美国的页岩气革命已经让能源市场的面貌发生了天翻地覆的变化。未来还会出现更多变化。在过去12个月里，美国天然气价格最低跌至2美元/百万英制热量单位（天然气基准价格）以下，虽然后来有所反弹，但仍远远低于石油价格。市场似乎正慢慢接受这样一个现实：两者将在可预见的未来继续保持巨大价差。

This has resulted in a rush in the US to substitute natural gas for oil. It will soon go global. Environmental concerns, politics and sheer availability are all facilitating the spread of the substitution trend. 这导致美国掀起了一波用天然气替代石油的热潮。这种趋势很快就会扩散到全球。无论是出于环保和政治角度考虑、还是单纯出于能源的可获得性考虑，结果都对此趋势起到了推波助澜的作用。

The usual bullish arguments for oil demand growth rely on China and other emerging markets and the low level of car usage rates among consumers in these countries. More money, more drivers, goes the logic. 认为石油需求会增长的观点通常建立在两点理由之上：中国等新兴市场对于石油的需求呈上升趋势，以及这些国家的消费者目前汽车拥有率不高。背后的逻辑是，随着这些国家的民众变得越来越有钱，越来越多的人会拥有汽车。

What these arguments miss is that in 2010 cars only accounted for about 22m barrels a day out of a global oil market of 87m b/d, to use the size given by Opec, the oil cartel. The rest of the demand comes from trucks (13m b/d), aircraft (5m b/d), ships (4m b/d), railways (2m b/d), petrochemicals (9m b/d), other industrial activity (14m b/d) and power (5m b/d) or heat generation (9m b/d). 这种观点忽略了如下事实：按照石油卡特尔石油输出国组织（OPEC，简称欧佩克）提供的数据，2010年全球石油市场日需求量为8700万桶，而来自汽车的日需求量仅为约2200万桶。剩余的需求来自货车运输（1300万桶）、航空（500万桶）、船运（400万桶）、铁路运输（200万桶）、石油化工（900万桶）、其他工业活动（1400万桶）、发电（500万桶）、以及供暖（900万桶）。

Almost all of these sectors are using more and more natural gas, rather than oil. Aviation is an exception, though even here Boeing has a concept aircraft that runs on liquid natural gas and this year Qatar Airways made its first commercial flight running on a blend of conventional jet fuel and an oil-type fuel made from natural gas. 几乎所有这些领域的天然气（而不是石油）使用量都在增加。航空是一个例外，不过即便如此，波音(Boeing)也已制造出一种以液化天然气(LNG)为燃料的概念飞机，卡塔尔航空公司(Qatar Airways)今年在一次商业飞行中也首次采用了一种混合燃料，这种混合燃料混合了传统飞机燃料、以及一种用天然气制成的石油型燃料。

It is important to note that this shift is neither far off nor hypothetical. We are not looking at hydrogen-fuelled cars or Japanese methane hydrates. The substitution is already happening. 值得注意的是，这种改变并非遥不可及，也并非假想。我们不是在说氢燃料汽车或日本的甲烷水合物（methane hydrate，即可燃冰——译者注）。天然气替代石油已是一种正在发生的现实。

In the US the shift is visible in strategies of many companies, from Warren Buffett’s railway BNSF, to UPS and FedEx parcel delivery fleets, and Apache and other oil and gas exploration and production companies shifting their fracking and high-horsepower drilling rigs to run on gas as opposed to diesel. 在美国，这种转变体现在许多公司的战略中，从沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的BNSF铁路公司，到快递公司联合包裹(UPS)和联邦快递(FedEx)，以及Apache等石油和天然气勘探与生产公司。这些石油和天然气勘探与生产公司在水力压裂法开采中使用的大功率钻探设备正在由使用柴油改为使用天然气。

The abundance of cheap gas in the US is helping drive an industrial renaissance. The US petrochemical industry is resurgent. US ethylene cracking – the process for making ethylene, a mainstay of the petrochemical industry – capacity is set to increase markedly from 2016, fuelled by cheap ethane and natural gas liquids. This is going to pressure foreign ethylene producers just as European oil refiners are buckling under the pressure exerted by their US counterparts. 美国廉价天然气供应充足还在推动工业出现一次复兴。美国石化行业已经复活。由于可以采用廉价的乙烷和天然气凝析液(NGL)为燃料，预计美国乙烯裂解产能将从2016年开始显著增加。乙烯裂解是指制造乙烯的过程，对石化行业至为关键。这将对外国乙烯生产商造成压力，与此类似的是，欧洲炼油商面对来自美国炼油商的压力正节节败退。

Europe’s regulations are also putting pressure on its oil industry. In February the European Commission issued draft legislation that would mandate LNG filling stations be located every 400km on the core trans-Europe highway network. This same legislation will mandate LNG filling stations be located at all 139 maritime and island ports in Europe, also by 2020. 欧洲的相关规定也增加了欧洲石油行业面临的压力。今年2月，欧盟委员会(European Commission)起草了一份法案，要求最迟至2020年底，跨欧洲核心运输网(Trans European Core Network)内的公路沿线每400公里必须建有一座液化天然气加气站，同时要求跨欧洲核心运输网内的139座海港和内陆港也必须设立液化天然气加气站。

Crucially, China is also beginning to make the shift. There 8 per cent of heavy duty truck sales in 2012 were LNG-fuelled, taking the number of LNG trucks on the road to more than 40,000. This is partly down to economics but environmental concerns are also important, with many city governments increasingly worried about pollution. 最为关键的是，中国也已开始转变。2012年，中国销售的重载型货车中有8%使用液化天然气燃料，从而使在路上的液化天然气燃料货车数量超过4万辆，这在某种程度上是为了提高燃料经济性，但环保考虑也是一个重要原因，因为许多城市越来越担心污染问题。

In the US, Europe, Japan and China, tighter fuel economy mandates are increasing the fuel economy of the world’s fleet of vehicles. For example, research by Citigroup estimates that new vehicles’ fuel economy is increasing by about 2.5 per cent a year. 美国、欧洲、日本和中国都出台了更严格的燃料经济性规定，促使全球车辆燃料经济性日益提高。例如，据花旗集团(Citigroup)的一项研究估计，新车的燃料经济性每年提高约2.5%。

This change in fuel economy is enough to significantly cut the expected growth in global oil demand – and, of course, oil prices. When you add in the shift from natural gas to oil, it should be enough to stop the forecasters of another boom in oil prices in their tracks. 燃料经济性像这样不断提高，足以显著缩小全球石油需求的预期增幅，当然还会显著降低石油价格。如果提出天然气取代石油的大趋势这个因素，应该足以反驳“石油价格即将迎来另一轮大涨”的观点。