The PC ecosystem is under threat. To rescue it, Microsoft and Intel may have to dig deeper─into their own pockets. 个人电脑生态系统正面临威胁。要想挽救它，微软(Microsoft)和英特尔(Intel)可能不得不付出更大的代价。

Global personal-computer shipments fell 14% in the first quarter, according to research firm IDC, their steepest decline ever. Microsoft's stock duly fell 5% on Thursday, with Hewlett-Packard's stock down 7% and Intel's, 3%. 研究机构国际数据公司(IDC)的数据显示，今年第一季度全球个人电脑出货量下降了14%，为历史最大降幅。微软股价周四应声下跌5%，惠普(Hewlett-Packard)和英特尔的股价分别下跌7%和3%。

What is surprising is that investors are surprised. Not only did the two halves of the 'Wintel' duopoly miss the boat with mobile, their latest attempt to regain momentum has looked ineffectual for months. New machines running Microsoft's latest touch-enabled operating system, Windows 8, typically powered with Intel chips, are so rare as to elicit stares when seen in the wild. 令人感到意外的是，这个数字也出乎投资者的意料。垄断市场的微软和英特尔联盟不仅错失移动设备市场的机遇，它们近来为重振势头而付出的努力数月来也没有产生什么效果。搭载微软最新推出的支持触屏控制的Windows 8操作系统的新设备（此类设备通常搭载英特尔芯片）非常罕见，以致在市场上看到时也难以夺人眼球。

Microsoft blames limited distribution. But IDC analyst Bob O'Donnell points out that such machines have proven too confusing and expensive. For example, he says, expecting every Windows 8 machine to be touch-enabled, some consumers think the nontouch versions are broken when they encounter them in stores. Meanwhile, they want to be charged the same for the touch versions as for conventional PCs, but expensive touch panels increase the cost. 微软认为导致这一结果的原因是分销渠道有限。但IDC分析师奥唐奈(Bob O'Donnell)指出，此类设备被证明过于昂贵，且令消费者感到困惑。他说，比如消费者可能认为每台Windows 8设备都是支持触屏操控的，因此当消费者在商店看到一台不支持触屏操控的设备时，他们会认为这台设备有问题。与此同时，消费者希望装有Windows 8系统的触屏电脑能和传统个人电脑价格一致，但昂贵的触摸面板增加了前者的成本。

There is hope that PCs will get a boost in the second half of the year, especially from business customers since Microsoft is ending support for Windows XP in 2014. As XP users upgrade to Windows 7, a rising tide should lift Intel's boat temporarily, along with business-focused PC makers like Dell and Lenovo . But that tide should recede as few businesses are likely to then make the jump to Windows 8. The benefits of putting touch-enabled PCs on workers' desks are unclear. 今年下半年个人电脑的销量有望获得提振，尤其是来自企业客户的需求，因为微软将在2014年终止对Windows XP的支持。由于XP用户升级到Windows 7，因此产生的连带性效应应该能暂时提振英特尔的业绩，以及戴尔(Dell)和联想(Lenovo)等关注企业用户的个人电脑制造商。但之后由于没有几家企业会立刻升级到Windows 8，因此刚刚被推高的业绩应该会出现下滑。给员工配置支持触屏操控的个人电脑所带来的好处目前还不清晰。

Emerging markets are another pillar of hope for PC-demand growth. Intel claims that once the average number of weeks of household income needed to buy a PC in a particular country falls below eight, PC penetration tends to take off. China, for instance, passed that threshold a few years ago. Yet the implied boost from China isn't showing up: IDC's data show PC shipments in the Asian-Pacific region excluding Japan dropped 12.7% in the first quarter, the same as in the U.S. 新兴市场是拉动个人电脑需求希望的另一大支柱。英特尔声称，如果以家庭周收入计算，一旦某个国家购买一台个人电脑需要动用的资金平均降到八周以下，那么个人电脑在这个国家通常就会开始普及。比如中国几年前就跨过了这一门槛。但中国市场对个人电脑销量的提振作用尚未显现出来：IDC的数据显示，亚太地区（日本除外）今年一季度个人电脑出货量下降12.7%，和美国相同。

Mobile devices are the likely culprits. Some newly affluent emerging-market consumers may be skipping over PCs altogether and going straight to mobile devices, says Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. Meanwhile, developed-market consumers spending more time and money on tablets and smartphones likely don't feel the need to upgrade their PCs as frequently. 移动设备可能是造成上述结果的罪魁祸首。研究机构Bernstein的分析师拉斯冈(Stacy Rasgon)说，一些刚刚富裕起来的新兴市场的消费者可能会跳过个人电脑直接购买移动设备。与此同时，发达市场的消费者将更多的时间和资金投入到平板电脑和智能手机上，他们感到没有必要频繁升级个人电脑。

If Microsoft and Intel don't take more drastic measures soon, they risk a downward spiral for the Wintel ecosystem. Popular devices encourage software development, which attracts more users and then more developers and so on in a virtuous circle. PCs may never have been sexy, but they have always offered compatible software across different makes. 如果微软和英特尔不尽快采取更加激进的措施，那么微软-英特尔联盟的生态系统可能呈螺旋式下降趋势。热门设备会鼓励软件的开发，而优秀的软件又会吸引更多的用户，继而吸引更多开发人员，并因此形成良性循环。个人电脑或许从来就不“性感”，但它们总是能在不同品牌的电脑上提供相互兼容的软件。

As PC sales dwindle, developers will devote more of their energy to writing software for devices gaining in popularity. Right now, these are the ones running Apple's and Google's mobile operating systems and using chip technology powered by Intel rival ARM Holdings . 由于个人电脑销售萎缩，程序开发员将投入更多精力去为那些受到欢迎的设备开发软件。眼下这些设备搭载的是苹果和谷歌移动操作系统，使用的是英特尔的竞争对手ARM Holdings生产的芯片。

If all the best mobile software is being written for Apple and Google devices, then increasing distribution and bringing prices in line with conventional PCs, and even a seven-inch version of the Surface tablet that Microsoft is planning, may not be enough to arrest the slide. 如果所有最好的移动软件都是为苹果和谷歌设备而开发的，那么即使增加分销渠道，把移动设备的价格降到传统个人电脑的价位，甚至是微软计划推出的7英寸Surface平板电脑可能都不足以挽回Windows设备销量下滑的颓势。

The other way to tempt consumers is with much lower prices for Windows 8 devices. But doing this would ultimately mean Microsoft and Intel accepting lower profits. Everyone else in PC-land has seen margins squeezed relentlessly. To preserve the entire ecosystem, it may be Wintel's turn. 吸引消费者的另一种方式是大幅降低Windows 8设备的价格。但这样做最终将意味着微软和英特尔接受较低利润的现实。个人电脑界的其它厂商已经看到利润被无情挤压的事实。现在或许轮到微软和英特尔来维护整个生态系统了。